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NFL Games of the Year

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Carbon Sports has released lines on NFL games that they deem as “Games of the Year” and they can provide some very valuable opportunities for bettors willing to get some money down months in advance. You can find the full list of odds on these games of the year here, but for now, here are two games in early October that have gotten my attention:

Oct. 13, 2013

New Orleans (+6) vs. New England (-6)

The Saints managed to get through their “Bountygate” year enough to be overly excited for what 2013 will bring. All the distractions that whole scenario brought to everyone involved in the organization was too much for the organization to overcome and get back into the playoffs.

But this year they get their head coach and offensive guru Sean Payton back and Drew Brees is ecstatic. He and his high-powered attack can go back out there and light up scoreboards across the league and they should be able to do that against a New England team that is going through their own “Bountygate” moment this year with the Aaron Hernandez situation.

This game is early enough in the year that the cold, outdoor weather in Foxboro won’t be a factor for the visiting Saints and with the Patriots still likely working through all the kinks of the plethora of new faces and potential distractions I have a tough time envisioning them winning by a TD here. This game could end up being one of those highlight-reel shootout type performances where the last team with the ball wins and that means you’ve got to take the points with New Orleans here.

Take the Saints +6

Oct. 13, 2013

Green Bay (+1.5) vs. Baltimore (-1.5)

Speaking of teams adjusting to many new faces on their roster, the Super Bowl champs are in that spot this season as well and I don’t believe they know how much they will miss WR Anquan Boldin until they get out on the field. By this time Baltimore will have had a month’s worth of action to figure things out but with a QB that has a freshly minted bank account and Super Bowl ring to boot, chances are the drive to win a title this season won’t be as intense this year in Maryland.

Green Bay has had the entire off-season to let their loss to San Francisco in the playoffs simmer and boil after Kaepernick and company torched their defense on nearly every possession. The Packers don’t mind getting in shootouts since they have one of the best QB’s in the league and if this game turns out that way backing Aaron Rodgers isn’t a bad option. Yes the Packers are missing a key WR of the past in Greg Jennings this season but he was slowly phased out of that offense a year ago as it appeared his age caught up to him. Green Bay is still loaded at the WR position and at times it really doesn’t matter who Rodgers is throwing to as long as they have hands and can catch a football.

Finally, this is also a big potential look-ahead spot for the Ravens who have their first meeting with the hated Steelers on deck the next week. There is no love lost between those two rivals and with this game against the Packers being their only home game between Weeks 4 and 9 (@Bills, @Dolphins, GB, @Pitt, bye, @Browns), I don’t see Baltimore bringing their best effort in this one.

Take the points with Green Bay.

David: 2013 Bad Beats
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