Super Bowl Matchups
July 17, 2013
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A lot of people will ignore betting on projected Super Bowl matchups because of the risk involved, but this is a great market to help you gauge your other NFL futures bets. Throwing a few, tasty fliers in this market can give you a starting point and makes it much easier to play the AFC and NFC futures markets because you already have a vested interest. Below I have five potential matchups that give you a general idea of the value you can find on this board.
The best way to approach this market is to take three potential Super Bowl matchups you like and throw some spare change at them. One of them should include a variety of favorites (like Seahawks and Broncos) while the other two can be a little more dangerous. The risk you put forth reaps a huge bounty, and the point here is to give yourself an angle to always approach the NFL futures market with.
If you bet on the Patriots and Niners in the Super Bowl, for example, you can either double down on the NFC and AFC Championship or try and hedge your bets as the season progresses. That particular matchup turns $100 in tow $1800 by February, so it’s a good investment both in terms of value and potential.
But the key point here is creating interest for you as a gambler and sports fan. By investing in a potential Super Bowl matchup you have ways of approaching the conference championships as the year goes on. And if you project correctly you could set yourself up with a great opportunity to make serious cash come January. There’s plenty of opportunity in between then and now to build your bankroll so think of these as some nice cash stashers.
So where are you leaning and how can you get a grip on this massive Super Bowl matchups betting board? Here are a few leads to give you an idea of how this market behaves and where the value is.
THE FAVORITES – San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos (+800)
Let’s start with the two favorites to win each conference To give you an idea of the value here. By comparison, the 49ers facing the Ravens in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl matchup is listed at +7000. As you’d expect this has the lowest number on the board simply because it has the highest chance of happening, though the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted the NFL futures market in a few weeks. The Crabtree injury leaves the door open in the NFC, as does the anticipated evolution (or de-evolution of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. At worst, you’re making 8-to-1 on your flier bet in this market. That’s pretty easy chump change.
CONTENDER/FAVORITE – Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos (+2500)
And this will give you a general idea of how the odds increase when you have a legitimate contender facing the AFC favored Broncos. Two Broncos picks in a row? Well look at their roster. The only significant piece they lost was Elvis Dumervil, and their offence only got better with the addition of a workhorse like Welker. The Falcons, as always, are in the mix and share the same value in long term markets as other teams like New England, New Orleans and Houston.
PUBLIC MATCHUPS – New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (+6000)
For those interested a trilogy, even though the Giants own the Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is one of the unlikely matchups (mostly because of the Giants) that people will love to see so it’s targeted with an attractive value. A few of the matchups will be between public teams (like Cowboys-Patriots, for example) so the odds will seem smaller than you might believe, but that is because the odds are adjusted already for matchups that will receive a lot of attention because of their pre-existing fan backing. Not everyone bets with their heads; some still bet with their hearts.
TWO CONTENDERS – Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans (+6500)
This is another matchup between two borderline championship contenders in either conference and gives you an idea of how much value there is on this board. I don’t think the Texans are actual contenders in the long run because they have a habit of flaming out spectacularly in the playoffs, but if you like their chances they’re posting very intriguing odds. All the legitimate contenders facing each other have similar numbers and you can see how making an educated guess with a small amount of risk can build up fast if you pick the right two teams.
TWO LONGSHOTS – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+50000)
I’m not just saying any “longshot” and anyone betting on a Cardinals-Titans Super bowl should be shot out of a canon. These are two of my favorite longshots in the AFC and NFC, mostly because of circumstance. There are enough chips on shoulders to pass around in Kansas City from the Andy Reid Revival Project to the Vengeance of Alex Smith. Tag that with marquee studs like Jamal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Dwayne Bowe and DeSean Jackson on both sides of the ball offensively and you have serious talent. Chip Kelly has his work cut out for him in Philadelphia but has tons of talent to bind in his first stint as a head coach in the NFL. For Reid, the challenge will be on the defensive side.
And look at how much they’re paying on this particular bet. You can earn a year’s salary for the above average man by placing just $100 of risk on a long term investment. This falls in line with similar matchups like Lions-Steelers (+40000) or Buccaneers-Texans (+19000) where the odds are massive because the outcome is unlikely. At least one of your three Super Bowl matchup bets should be on two longshots squeaking their way in to the Super Bowl. You never know, right?
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