Who's Hot and Who's Not
June 4, 2018
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Sports bettors like to attack their angles from any and all sides and for many that means keeping track of current form/trends to ride the hot teams while their hot and fade the cold teams when they can't seem to win a game. Current form is something that's mentioned more in individual sports like tennis or golf, but it works for team sports as well, especially when you get long winning/losing streaks that you can use to your advantage in sports betting.
With that being said, we here from Intertops.eu are excited to introduce a new weekly feature we will have here at VegasInsider.com every week that takes a look at surging and struggling teams across all sports. Whether or not you continue to ride or fade these teams in the coming weeks, but being aware of more teams who are trending hard in one direction or another is never a bad thing.
So let's get right to it.
MLB - Washington Nationals Unders (0-9 O/U last nine games)
The Washington Nationals return home on Tuesday for the week as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays for a brief two-game set before hosting the Giants over the weekend. Two off days within the same week adds an interesting dynamic to handicapping the Nationals this week, especially with that first game against the Rays on Tuesday night being the first one back at home after a long 10 game road trip for the Nats.
Yet, what's more important here is the fact that Washington has seen each of their last nine games cash 'under' tickets for bettors as their pitching staff is really finding it's form in being dominant, and the Nationals offense is finding it hard to click on all cylinders as well. Starter Max Scherzer gets the nod for Washington on Tuesday, and it was his start two starts ago that produced the last 'over' these Nationals had. With him on the mound a lower total is going to be posted, especially when it's an AL team losing a bat by playing in a NL park. How long can we see these 'unders' continue to cash in Nationals games?
WNBA – Connecticut Sun Straight Up and ATS (5-0 SU; 4-1 ATS)
The WNBA's Connecticut Sun has started the 2018 campaign with an undefeated mark and done it in impressive fashion. The Sun's 4-1 ATS record comes with them laying -9 or more in three of their five games (2-1 ATS in those three games) being favored in all five contests. The average margin of victory for them this year sits at 23 points! That's a huge number to be winning by on average, and it always helps to have multiple 30+ point wins in there. There's definitely been no hangover from losing in the Eastern Finals last year for this team.
This week we will see Connecticut hit the floor three times (Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday) with the first two being road tests in Atlanta and New York. Neither team has squared off with the Sun yet this year, but with both likely to be home underdogs this week and oddsmakers getting to the point where inflated Connecticut's spreads a touch might be more of an option, are you going to be willing to ride out this streak Connecticut is on or throw caution into the wind and look for a stumble this week. Depending on what kind of point spreads we see, I'd probably be inclined to go the latter route and take the points with the home side.
Jose Urena and the Miami Marlins Straight Up – (0-6 SU last six, 1-9 SU last 10, winless this year in Urena's 12 starts)
Miami enters the week on a 1-9 SU run and it might not get any easier with a three-game set in St Louis starting on Tuesday night. Everyone knew this Marlins team was going to be bad this year, and while fading them every night out there through 162 games may likely turn a profit by year's end, the price to do so is only going to get steeper and steeper. Remember, even the worst teams in MLB win about 40% of the time each year, so it's important to pick your spots.
A good spot to fade Miami this year has been when #1 starter Jose Urena has been on the hill, that's for sure. Not all the losses can be pinned on Urena – he's actually been quite good at times – but Miami is 0-12 SU when he gets the nod and he'll be starting the series opener with the Cardinals on Tuesday. I'd have to say, Urena is too talented of a guy to be stuck in a losing streak like this and fading Miami in Urena starts is a trend that is probably close to the end of running its course. But if you've been lucky enough to ride that wave for some time now, I say keep on riding it until it costs you. Then probably go back to fading the Marlins 4-5 times per week if you deem the price to be right, because 100+ losses for the Marlins is coming this year.
WNBA – Minnesota Lynx ATS (0-7 ATS)
The Minnesota Lynx are the defending WNBA Champions and usually it's the past year's runner-up that experiences a “championship hangover” the following campaign, but as of now it's actually the champs who have fallen victim to that cold. Not only does Minnesota have a SU losing record through seven games this year (2-5 SU), but they've failed to cover a single point spread.
Now, being the defending champs is always going to force oddsmakers to attach a premium to the numbers they put out, but this might have gotten to the point where things might actually be flipping the other way. Minnesota was favored in each of their first six games – they went 2-4 SU in them – and with the losses piling up and a visit to L.A to play a good Sparks team this past Sunday, Minnesota found themselves catching points for the first time this year. Obviously that was another ATS loss, but the stance on this team in terms of how good they actually are has softened dramatically.
If that equates to Minnesota getting some point spreads that are more representative of “true” numbers for this year and not influenced by past successes, I'd look for this ATS drought to be snapped sooner than later. They've got road games in Washington and Connecticut (Thursday and Saturday) this week, and should be catching points in both. Consider taking those points if you can in at least one of those contests.
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