Would the real Adam Loewen please stand up?
Some rookie pitchers come blazing right out of the gate, like Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano or Detroit’s Justin Verlander. Others need a little more seasoning to harness their obvious gifts. Loewen falls into the latter category. The Canadian southpaw has flipped back and forth between dominance and vulnerability since the Baltimore Orioles called him up from AAA-Ottawa last month. He’ll be on display again this Wednesday when the O’s visit the House that Ruth Built to face Cory Lidle and the New York Yankees.
Don’t expect Loewen to be intimidated by the potent Yankees batting order. It was less than two weeks ago when the Surrey, B.C. native (in the suburbs of Vancouver) shut down New York over 6 1/3 innings, limiting the Yanks to one hit with eight strikeouts as the O’s came out on the good end of a 5-0 final score. Baltimore was a +190 home dog in that affair. However, Loewen followed that performance up with a stinker at Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox; he was chased in the second inning of what would become a 9-2 Red Sox victory.
Loewen was the No. 4 pick of the 2002 MLB draft, but he was disappointed with contract negotiations and went to tiny Chipola College in Marianna, Fla., an institution known more for its impressive basketball program. Those contract issues were resolved when the O’s signed Loewen to a deal that included a $3.2-million signing bonus – the largest ever given to a Baltimore player at the time. That money should be worth it. Loewen was highly touted after displaying a nasty curveball and a plus-fastball in high school. He will and should be given every opportunity to become an ace in the majors.
From a betting perspective, Loewen has already been profitable. The O’s are 5-5 when he starts, good enough for an even two units in earnings. Handicappers should be extremely wary, though, of placing too much faith in Loewen as the 2006 season begins to wind down. The O’s played it safe last year by easing Loewen’s minor-league workload down the stretch (a partially torn labrum was the red-flag culprit), and he has been held to a fairly strict 100-pitch limit this season. His occasional rookie mistakes have translated to a 6.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.75; those numbers are fairly close to Loewen’s weighted mean PECOTA projections (as compiled by Baseball Prospectus) of a 5.61 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP.
As far as Wednesday’s game is concerned, the Yankees will have short memories of the last time they faced Loewen. They happen to mash lefties for a .803 OPS; that’s a shade under the .812 OPS they post against right-handed pitchers, but the addition of Bobby Abreu may see that figure rise. Despite being a left-handed batter himself, Abreu is abusing southpaws at a .902 OPS clip in 2006.
Loewen’s Big Apple counterpart Wednesday was added before the trade deadline in the same deal that put Abreu in a fresh set of pinstripes. Lidle is a solid, if unspectacular, pitcher at the back end of the rotation. The 34-year-old righty had a 4.74 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 21 starts with the Philadelphia Phillies before being traded to the Yanks in time for their playoff push. Philly went just 10-11 in those starts, dropping 2.22 units along the way, but Lidle’s mediocrity is balanced by his reputation as an innings-eater and a good second-half pitcher. Lidle has thrown at least 184 innings in each of the past five years since becoming a regular starter in the majors. He’s also 38-25 in his career after the All-Star break with a 4.05 ERA, compared to 35-40 and 4.87 ERA beforehand.
Lidle’s Yankees debut was an impressive six-inning performance on Aug. 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays, who touched their former pitcher for just one run in an 8-1 Yanks victory. But an apparent stomach virus caused Lidle to stumble in his second game, a 7-4 loss last Friday to the Los Angeles Angels. That was his first defeat in six starts. “I felt all right at game time to go out there,” Lidle told reporters. “It was tough. I felt like I hit the wall pretty quick.” There has been no update made public on Lidle’s health situation since then. Given Baltimore’s 7-15 cold streak heading into this three-game set with New York, the O’s might want to push Lidle’s buttons by sneaking some open jars of expired mayonnaise and a pile of used sweat socks into the home clubhouse.
