By David Sharp
Where did it all go wrong? I’m scanning the carnage in my bracket, looking for answers and really have none. UConn in the Elite Eight, Georgetown meeting Kansas in the round of eight, a long run by Pittsburgh…it all adds up to “better luck next year”…although I do have Kansas beating Texas in the Championship game, which can still happen.
It was a great four days of college hoops last week, no matter what shape my bracket is in. I love the Davidson story, although I think it ends in the Sweet Sixteen, as it will for Villanova and Western Kentucky.
Speaking of Western Kentucky….their opponent Thursday night, UCLA, started the tournament as the odds-on favorite to win it all, but after an unimpressive effort vs. Texas A&M, they now slipped below both Kansas and North Carolina. The Jayhawks and Tar Heels have been the class of the tourney so far, displaying deep benches and consistency.
Like UCLA, another #1-seed, Memphis, did little to inspire confidence coming out the first weekend of action. Memphis came into the tournament with people knocking them, saying they weren’t a legitimate #1-seed, based on feasting on the Conference-USA schedule all year. They slot in behind the other three #1-seeds in the lineup, with odds of 6-1 on them to win it all.
They are not getting much respect from the bettors at SPORTSBETTING.COM, as they have garnered only 8% of the action since the new odds were posted heading into the Sweet Sixteen.
In fact, Texas, Wisconsin and Louisville have each received more support than Memphis. Texas will face Memphis in the Elite Eight if both win their next games. Bettors appear to like the Longhorns in that matchup, as they have grabbed 11% of the overall wagering volume for the Championship.
Wisconsin and Louisville are both 15-1 to win it all. The Badgers are sitting with 9% of the overall wagering action, while Louisville’s backers have backed them at a clip of 10%. Both teams have difficult paths to the Championship game, as Wisconsin will likely have to get through Kansas, while Louisville will likely meet North Carolina in the Elite Eight.
But remember, all four #1-seeds have never met up in the Final Four, so history tells us that there are upsets in the waiting.
The longshot getting action in the early going is Xavier. At 40-1, this #3-seed does seem to offer up value. They are in the same region as UCLA, who have shown some weakness and on the same side of the bracket as Memphis, again a #1-seed that could be vulnerable. I could see a Xavier-Memphis, or Xavier-Texas Final Four matchup, and this team can definitely compete against either of them. Xavier is receiving 12% of the early action, a very big percentage for a 40-1 shot.
Here are the complete updated odds to win the Championship courtesy SPORTSBETTING.COM
Field (Any Other Team) 100 - 1
Villanova 100 - 1
Davidson 60 - 1
Washington St 50 - 1
Michigan St 40 - 1
Xavier 40 - 1
West Virginia 35 - 1
Tennessee 20 - 1
Stanford 20 - 1
Louisville 15 - 1
Wisconsin 15 - 1
Texas 8 - 1
Memphis 6 - 1
UCLA 3 - 1
North Carolina 3 - 1
Kansas 5 - 2
