The post positions have been drawn, odds have been set and seemingly infinite crates of bourbon alongside sugar syrup and mint are in storage—in anticipation for all the Mint Julep that will be consumed at the famous Churchill Downs track this weekend.
When they established the odds for the Derby, Big Brown became the big favorite at 8-5. Among the other betting favorites are Colonel John and Pyro who are 4-1 and 5-1 respectively.
But while futures betting is on the menu, so are a bevy of other wagers, including matchup bets.
While the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, the Kentucky Oaks will take place this evening with Proud Spell, who has post position 8, listed as the odds-on +250 fave followed by Country Star (post position 6) at +350.
Proud Spell has $880,000 in Graded Earnings and a 7-4-2-1 race record compared to Country Star’s $580,300 and 3-2-1-0.
In the matchups, Proud Spell is obviously favored (-155) against Country Star (+125) and the betting action is reflective with Proud Spell seeing 70% of the wagers to Country Star’s 30% at SPORTSBETTING.COM.
Big Brown is not only the betting favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby; Big Brown is seeing a majority of the action in all matchup bets.
Of all the matchups involving Big Brown—who is running in post position 20—the one involving Pyro (post position 9) has the biggest potential payout. Against Pyro, Big Brown is a -170 favorite (Pyro is +135) and Big Brown is seeing 81% of the betting action so far.
The betting public however, doesn’t seem so certain about Big Brown against Colonel John, who drew post position 10. Big Brown has a race record of 3-3-0-0 and has Graded Earnings of $600,000 but the good Colonel has amassed Graded Earnings of $720,000 and a record of 6-4-2-0 and is a +120 underdog to -150 fave Big Brown.
But the betting action isn’t nearly as lopsided as the Big Brown-Pyro matchup as Colonel John is seeing 37% of the betting action to Big Brown’s 67%.
While Big Brown will see a majority of action in almost every matchup, what of the matchup bet between the other horses that are favorites?
As mentioned Colonel John has a record of 6-4-2-0 and Graded Earnings of over $700K, while Pyro has a record of 7-3-2-1 and Graded Earnings of over $1 million. The fact that Pyro is more accomplished hasn’t stopped bettors from piling on Colonel John, as he is receiving a healthy majority of the action with 75% of the bets coming the way of the Colonel.
Being installed as the odds-on favorite doesn’t guarantee victory at the Kentucky Derby. Last year, Curlin was the odds-on favorite at +350 but was beaten by +400 Street Sense.
Would a wager on Colonel John be in the order?
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Enjoy the Derby.
