Championship Weekend at Wimbledon

We’re down to the wire at SW19.

The Wimbledon Championships will be decided this weekend at the legendary All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club – specifically on Centre Court, where we will see the favored Williams sisters face each other in the women’s final for the second year in a row and the fourth time this decade. The men have reached the semifinal stage with both their top seeds intact; Roger Federer will meet Tommy Haas, and Andy Murray has a very interesting matchup with Andy Roddick.

We could have new No. 1s in the world tennis rankings on Monday after Wimbledon is over. This is how the most recent Top 5 looked for both the men and women on June 22:

Men

1. Rafael Nadal

2. Roger Federer

3. Andy Murray

4. Novak Djokovic

5. Juan Martin Del Potro

Women

1. Dinara Safina

2. Serena Williams

3. Venus Williams

4. Elena Dementieva

5. Svetlana Kuznetsova

Roddick is currently No. 6 on the ATP Tour, and Haas No. 34, so it’s easy to conclude that Murray will have the more difficult path to Sunday’s final. Here are the odds for the semis as we went to press; for the freshest lines, visit sports.bodog.com.

Tommy Haas                 +750

Roger Federer                -1400

Andy Roddick                +250

Andy Murray                  -330

It seems to be a matter of when and not if for Federer. He was the Wimbledon champion five years in a row before Nadal had his breakthrough performance in 2008, overcoming Federer in a five-set marathon (the deciding set went 9-7) that John McEnroe called the greatest match he’d ever seen. With Nadal unavailable to defend his title due to recurring knee problems, Federer has resumed his dominance on grass courts, where he’s 86-12 lifetime and 70-1 since 2003. He’s also 9-2 lifetime against Hass, the two losses coming on hard surfaces early in Federer’s career.

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Not that Haas hasn’t given Federer some trouble. In their most recent match at the French Open, the veteran from Hamburg took the first two sets in their Round of 16 encounter before Federer was able to bounce back. Their last two meetings on grass were both in Halle, Germany:

2006: Federer wins 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3

2005: Federer wins 6-4, 7-6(9)

Haas is a tough customer. If you’re uncomfortable eating this much chalk to take Federer, you can reduce your exposure by choosing the “set betting” option. For example, Federer is priced at –150 to drop Haas in three straight sets, and +110 for any other result. Haas is coming off a victory at the 2009 Halle warm-up, where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final – the same man he upset as a +200 dog to reach the Wimbledon semis.

The Murray-Roddick matchup looks more competitive, but looks can be deceiving. The young Scot is 6-2 lifetime versus Roddick, and one of those losses was by withdrawal. Murray eliminated the hard-serving American in the second round of the 2006 Wimbledon Championships, in straight sets no less. Roddick had gone to the finals the previous two years, only to lose to Federer. His career has been in decline ever since, and he’s had to scramble through the early rounds to get here, including a five-set epic over surprise quarterfinalist Lleyton Hewitt. Murray is +220 to sweep Roddick out of the semis in three sets.

The betting public is obviously anticipating a Federer-Murray final, judging by these championship prices on the futures market:

Federer             4-11

Murray              11-4

Roddick            12-1

Haas                 40-1

On the women’s side, you could have taken both Williams sisters at the open and been guaranteed a profit. Serena was the favorite at 9-4, followed by Venus at 3-1. Now Serena is a +115 underdog for Saturday’s final after scraping by No. 4 Elena Dementieva 6-7 (4), 7-5, 8-6 in Thursday’s semis. In sharp contrast, Venus destroyed world’s No. 1 Dinara Safina 6-1, 6-0. Both Dementieva and Safina were +400 underdogs.

There used to be trepidation in betting circles when the two sisters would play each other in a final. Not anymore; Serena and Venus can both be counted on to give it the proverbial 110 percent on Saturday. They’ve split their 20 career matches at 10-10, their last six since 2008 at 3-3, and their four Wimbledon matches 2-2. Venus won last year’s final 7-5, 6-4 and is the –135 favorite to defend her title. She’s also available at +200 to win again in straight sets.