It wasn't that long ago that the New England Patriots were a near surefire bet. The sportsbooks couldn't put up a number high enough on them as they steamrolled their way to a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS mark through the first half of the 2007 season.
And while Tom Brady and crew continued on chasing the perfect season in the second half, the tide turned for the sports betting community, as a combination of sky-high pointspreads and opposing team's ability to somewhat gameplan for them, kept things closer. The result was an 8-0 run straight up, but only a 2-6 mark against the spread.
The Pats headed into the playoffs with the goal of booking the best season in NFL history, a perfect 19-0, crowned by a Super Bowl win.
But we all know how that supposed fairy tale ended; New England would march to the Super Bowl only to lose 17-14 as 12.5-point favorites to the New York Giants.
Bad karma seemed to hang over the team at times since that Super Bowl loss, with the team losing Brady last season in Game 1 and then missing the playoffs despite finishing with an 11-5 record (9-7 ATS).
But there is excitement around the team again heading into the 2009 campaign. Tom Brady is back and both bettors and their fans are expecting big things.
Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com has New England listed as the odds-on favorite, at -450, to take the AFC East division, +320 to win the AFC championship and +600 to win the Super Bowl.
The betting action has been steady on New England in all three categories, but particularly to win the AFC East and to win the AFC Championship.
Their Season Win Totals number is high, at 11.5 (so they need to win 12 games for player's to cash their tickets), but bettors still like the "Over" on this one, as 74% of all the betting volume has come in on "Over" 11.5 wins. Hey, they did win 11 games last year with Matt Cassel at QB.
They do have one of the tougher schedules this season though. There cross-over division is the NFC South, which will deliver stiff competition (except for what looks like a weak Tampa Bay squad).
Hitting 12 wins with that schedule is going to be a challenge.
It all starts on Monday night opening weekend. The New England Patriots kick off their 2009 sked as part of the Monday night double-header hosting TO and the Buffalo Bills. SPORTSBETTING.com has the Pats installed as 9.5-point faves and the Total is set at 46.5.
In the last 20 home games against the Bills, New England has been very profitable going 12-7-1 ATS, with an Over/Under record of 6 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.
In the last 20 games overall vs. Buffalo, the numbers have been similar with the Pats going 16-4 SU, 13-6-1 ATS, while there has been a strong "Under" trend, with 4 Overs and 16 Unders.
It has been a tale of two teams when New England has been favored by more than 8-points-the Patriots are 18-2 straight up in that situation but only 8-12 against the spread.
New England is also 12-8 on the Over/Under when listed at more than -8 but is 2-8 O/U in the last 10.
Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the New Englanders are looking to regain their swagger….bettors will be watching them carefully heading into the season.
Check out the NFL Future odds for all the NFL teams.
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