Date: Sunday, November 1st
Time: 1:00PM ET
TV: Fox
Line: Indianapolis -13
Total: 44 ½

Just a couple of weeks ago, this looked like a matchup of two of the best teams in the league. You can still say that about the undefeated Colts, but the Niners have not been the same since Brett Favre tore their heart out with that last second win back in week 3. Alex Smith will get the start against a Colts team that hasn’t missed a beat with the retirement of their coach Tony Dungy.

Quarterback/SFO

Alex Smith will be back under center after coming in to replace Shaun Hill in last week’s loss against Houston. The Niners are reeling, having lost 3 of 4 after starting 2-0. Smith’s stats were impressive. He was 15/22 for 206 yards and 3TD’s (all to TE Vernon Davis). We do not like the Niners secondary, so Smith maybe asked to have a repeat performance if San Fran hopes to pull off the upset.
FF: Smith is 5-0 when he has had a QB rating of 95+

INDY

We are not sure if we can say enough good things about Peyton Manning. Manning enters this game with a QB rating of 114.5, should blow by 2000 yards for the season in the first half, and has 15 touchdown passes in just 6 games. Our favorite Manning stat has been his ability to use different targets. 5 different receivers enter the game with double digit catches, and none of them are named Harrison or Gonzales. Also keep in mind that his long time OC Tom Moore has taken a smaller role with the club and those stats become more impressive. Look for more of the same here, Manning will spread the ball around early looking to give Indy a nice lead in order to force Smith to pass more then he would like.
FF: Manning is 31-16 vs. NFC/needs 5 completions to become 4th player in history with 4000

Running Backs

Frank Gore still looked like a guy battling an ankle injury last week against the Texans. He has had a full week of practice, and should be healthy Sunday. San Francisco has been terrible protecting the Quarterback allowing an average of 3 sacks a game. If they are going to slow down the Colts who come into the game with 16 sacks, Gore will have to be effective early to help control time of possession, keep Manning off the field, and also to prevent the Niners from having to play from behind.
FF: Gore is 4th in the league in total rushing yards since 2006 with 4,106 (2nd in NFC)

Colts rookie Donald Brown is doubtful with a shoulder injury, so Joseph Addai will get the majority of the carries. Addai has done well in the platoon with 4 rushing TD’s including one in 3 straight, but overall the rushing game has struggled for the Colts averaging just 90 yards a game. If the Colts can get the lead, Addai will get plenty of chances to raise those numbers.
FF: Addai has 11 rushing TD’s in last 9 games vs. NFC

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Wide Receivers

We have been on the Vernon Davis bandwagon all season and continue to be here. Davis has thrived in Jimmy Raye’s offense catching 29 passes for 350 yards and 6 TD’s. He will have a tough assignment on Sunday with Colts SS Bob Sanders covering him, but Davis is playing with confidence, and has a size advantage that should help him against the always tough Sanders. If Raye spreads the offense for Smith, we expect to see more of Michael Crabtree in the offensive game plan.
FF: Davis 6 TD catches are #1 in the league.

In the offseason people wondered who would become the go-to guy for the Colts. Manning made it easy by making EVERYBODY a go to guy. Look at the numbers. Reggie Wayne/39 catches, 550yds, 5 TD’s, Dallas Clark 38 catches 3 TD’s, Joseph Addai 27 catches, and well, you get the picture. There is a reason for the success of this team, and it starts with these guys. It could be a long day for Dre Bly and Nate Clements. Reggie Wayne missed practice all week with a groin injury but should be able to play on Sunday.
FF: The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games.

Defense:

We talked to two different sources in San Francisco this week, and neither one had a solid idea of what the Niners game plan would be on Defense this week. It’s easy to understand when you consider Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub lit up the 49’ers the last two weeks throwing for a combined 600 yards, 70 points, and 4 TD passes. If those two guys did that kind of damage, you can see why no one is quite sure what we see against Manning. Our guess is you load the box, and try to make Addai beat you.
FF: the Colts are an impressive 54% on 3rd down conversions

It wouldn’t surprise us if Peyton Manning got some votes as DEFENSIVE MVP for the Colts. Manning has been so effective in getting the Colts an early lead; it forces opposing teams to throw the ball more than they would like trying to catch up. That is what the Colts expect here. They know Smith has not seen a lot of game action, and feel he can be rattled, and also duped by different looks. If Sanders can be effective against Davis, it will make for another long day for Mike Singletary’s team. Freeney who was listed as questionable earlier in the week is expected to play.
FF: Since 02 Dwight Freeney’s 77.5 sacks in 2nd to only Jason Taylor’s 86.5 in the league.

Key Injuries:
Colts: Reggie Wayne (probable), Anthony Gonzalez (OUT), Donald Brown (OUT)
49ers: Michael Lewis (probable), Takeo Spikes (Questionable), Justin Smith (Questionable)

Betting Trends:
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an UNDERDOG
49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games