Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (6-0)
Date: Monday, November 2nd
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: New Orleans -11 ½
Total: 55 ½
The Atlanta Falcons will be in New Orleans for a prime time Monday Night Football match up against the Saints. The Saints would own a three-game lead over the Falcons with a victory, including a head-to-head win over Atlanta, their closest division competitor. And given the way New Orleans has played thus far, it would be hard to imagine Sean Payton's club relinquishing that type of lead. In the 10 games remaining the Saints' schedule isn't exactly daunting. New Orleans will face Carolina and Tampa twice, then St. Louis, Washington, Dallas, New England. Going unbeaten might be expecting too much, but finishing 15-1 or 14-2 with home field advantage for the entire NFC playoffs is very realistic.
The Saints' 46-34 win over the Dolphins last Sunday marked the fourth time in their six games this season that New Orleans had scored more than 40 points, though it was the Saints underrated defense that scored the two of the most important touchdowns in the game. Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter both took back interceptions for touchdowns in the second half of the win. The Saints defense, along with a running game is the biggest difference in the team from last years. The Saints' have a playmaking defense that is tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (18), interceptions (13), and is allowing opponents to complete a league-low 52.4 percent of their passes. The Saints have 14 sacks in six games.
The Saints' offensive attack is the NFL pace-setter in total offense (427.3 yards per game), touchdowns (31), and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (12).
Drew Brees threw for three interceptions against Miami but recovered to hit on 22 of 38 for 298 yards and a touchdown pass. Brees was sacked five times in Miami. The Saints have scored 45 or more points in 4 of their games this season. Brees has 14 touchdown passes, thrown for 1698 yards and has a passer rating of 106.8 this season.
New Orleans has the third best rushing attack in the NFL, led by a balance of a Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. The Saints are dedicated to pounding the rock and average 154.5 yards per game.
Drew Brees definitely has the potential to torch the Atlanta secondary with starting cornerback Brian Williams out for the season. Tony Romo and Miles Austin lit them up last week what will Brees with Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey do to the 25th ranked NFL defense?
Matt Ryan (1360 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has not been at his sharpest over the past two outings. Ryan has posted two consecutive sub-70.0 passer ratings, been held under 200 yards by the Bears and Cowboys. Ryan has thrown four interceptions and four touchdown passes over that span. The Falcons attack may not be able to match New Orleans score-for-score if the turnovers (7) by the sophomore quarterback continue; they have hurt Atlanta's efforts this season. Ryan, who had been sacked just twice during the team's 4-1 start, was dropped four times by the Cowboys.
The Atlanta running game is a disappointing 19th in the NFL averaging 102.8 yards per game. Michael Turner is not putting up the same type of numbers as his Pro Bowl season of 2008. Turner was held to 50 yards on 18 carries by the Cowboys, but did score his seventh touchdown of the season. Jerious Norwood missed the Dallas game with a hip injury and is questionable for Monday.
Primary targets Roddy White (33 receptions, 5 TD) and Tony Gonzalez (27 receptions, 3 TD) combined for just 87 receiving yards in last week's loss to the Cowboys, though White did find the end zone for the third consecutive game.
Ryan and the Falcons attack may not be able to match New Orleans score-for-score, as the turnovers by the sophomore quarterback (six INT, one fumble) have hurt Atlanta's efforts. Ryan, who had been sacked just twice during the team's 4-1 start, was dropped four times by the Cowboys.
Atlanta's biggest concern may be with the team's 25th-ranked defense, which struggled to slow down Dallas' Tony Romo, who threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons defense has been vulnerable to the run game at times this season. Cornerbacks Grimes, Houston and Jackson also figure to have their hands full this week.
The Drive for the NFL South Title starts Monday Night in New Orleans on Monday Night Football.
SERIES HISTORY:
Atlanta leads the all-time regular season series with New Orleans, 44-35, including a conventional home-and-home split last season. The Falcons were 34-20 winners when the teams met at the Georgia Dome in Week 10, and dropped a 29-25 decision to the Saints in the Superdome during Week 14. . The Falcons are 0-3 in series road games since 2005, and are 0-5 in New Orleans since last winning there in 2002.
Sean Peyton is 5-1 against the Falcons as a head coach, while Atlanta's Mike Smith is 1-1 against both Peyton and the Saints as a head man. Injuries:
ATLANTA LIST: 10 Questionable… DE Kroy Bierman, DT Thomas Johnson, RB Jerious Norwood, RB Jason Snelling, DE John Abraham, DT Jonathan Babineaux DT, OT Sam Baker, S Antoine Harris, CB Chris Owens, RB Ovie Mughelli. 2 Probable…LB Tony Gilbert, LS Mick Schenk
New Orleans List: 1 Out..DT Sedrick Ellis 1 Questionable LB Scott Fujita.. 12 Probable K John Carney, LB Jonathan Casillas, G Jahari Evans, C Jonathan Goodwin, CB Malcolm Jenkins, LB Marvin Mitchell, CB Tracey Porter, TE Jeremy Shocky, OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, CB Leigh Young, S Usama Young
Betting Trends:
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Saints
The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in New Orleans
The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
The Saints are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games
The OVER is 19-7-1 in the Saints last 27 home games