Date: Sunday, November 8th
Time: 4:15PM ET
TV: CBS
Line: Giants -5
Total: 48
We don’t like to call any game in Week 9 a “must win” but for these two teams we may make an exception. San Diego is two games behind Denver in The AFC West, and New York comes into the game riding a three-game losing streak. Whoever loses this game is going to have a tough time bouncing back. The other storyline is the first ever matchup between two Top 5 Quarterbacks who were traded for each other on Draft Day 2004.
Quarterbacks:
Philip Rivers didn’t have his best game last week, but when you consider he was facing the Raiders, even a decent effort is enough to get a win. Rivers was the entire Chargers offense through the first four games, but LaDanian Tomlinson is showing sign of life which should ease the burden. Rivers will focus again on Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates; we also like Malcolm Floyd to have a nice game against a weak Giants secondary.
Eli Manning has been struggling throwing six picks to only three TD’s over the past three games. Manning faces a Chargers defense that has showed marked improvement the past two weeks. Manning is going to face a steady stream of blitzes, so it may fall on Ahmad Bradshaw and Kevin Boss to bail Manning out. We look for Manning and the Giants to go to the run early and test the Chargers defensive line. When Manning needs to throw, we love the matchup of TE Kevin Boss vs. rookie SS Kevin Ellison. Ellison is a tough kid, but is in for his biggest challenge against the mammoth Boss.
Running Backs:
We talk to Chargers insiders on a weekly basis, and the feeling is 2009 is the final season wearing the lightning bolt for Tomlinson. There is no question at the age of 30, Tomlinson has lost a step, but we think Norv Turner’s boring playbook isn’t helping the cause. Tomlinson has shown some glimpses of his old self recently, but we are still concerned that Turner has turned to Darren Sproles at the goal line. Sproles is an exciting player, but is at his most effective when used sparingly.
NYG insiders believe we will see more of Ahmad Bradshaw this week. Brandon Jacobs is still listed as the starter, but like many backs around the league has had trouble getting started. Bradshaw has four TD’s to Jacobs two, but the number that stands out to us is in the yards per carry category. Bradshaw has an impressive 5.3 to Jacobs 3.9.San Diego enters the game without Pro Bowler Jamal Williams who is out for the year. Jacobs will get his touches, but we say go with Bradshaw while he is hot.
Wide Receivers:
Vincent Jackson continues to develop into a premiere Receiver. We have had questions how he would fare this year against quality DB’s, but each time he has answered the bell. Rivers will look for him as long as the Giants have trouble covering him which should be all day. Antonio Gates has been solid. The Chargers released Chris Chambers this week due to off the field issues. This opens a spot for 6’5 Malcolm Floyd who has made some big catches in recent weeks.
If we were Tom Coughlin, we would instruct Eli Manning to throw at TE Boss as much as possible. The Chargers have not stopped a TE all season. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham draw tough assignments in Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie. Smith has been a pleasant surprise coming out of nowhere to lead the league with 53 catches. He has added 4 TD catches which ties Manningham and Hakeem Nicks for the team lead. If we were to pick one of these guys, it would be Nicks who gets Steve Gregory who just went back to playing CB after three years as a safety.
Defense:
He hasn’t said it on the record, but this is a huge game for Shawne Merriman. Merriman has worn out his welcome in San Diego, and would love to play in a major market like New York in 2010. Coming off a two sack game vs. the Raiders last week, look for “Lights Out” to be running at full speed. The game plan this week for San Diego is to try to contain the run which they have done a better job of recently, and force Manning to try to beat them. San Diego has 10 sacks over the past two games. Shaun Phillips leads the team with four sacks.
Part of Philip Rivers success this year (60% comp, 11td’s 4int 96rtg) has been due to his willingness to stand tough in the pocket. He will get his biggest challenge this week against two quality DE’s in Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyioya. The Giants D has struggled giving up 112 points during the three-game losing streak, but we love Tuck against San Diego RT Jeromey Clary who has looked overmatched often. The Giants will have to come up with an answer for Jackson and Gates if they want to get a much needed win heading into their bye week.
Injuries:
SD: Nick Hardwick-C/ankle (out) Tim Dobbins-LB/knee (doubtful)
NY: Aaron Ross-CB/hamstring (out)
Betting Trends:
The Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games
The Giants are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games
The OVER is 19-6-3 in the Chargers last 28 road games
The OVER is 3-1-1 in the Giants last five games
