If you've made it to Week 11 with your bankroll intact, then you're one of the lucky ones. This season has been a challenging time for everyone, including the experts. This week will give you a chance at getting a reward.
These past two months have been where a lot of us cashed in. We've been able to see what most teams have been able to do, making our analysis much more exact. Yet there are a lot of bettors that are just as square as when the Steelers and Titans kicked off the 2009 campaign.
Before we get to our Week 11 preview, we're going to give you three simple steps to keep in mind for the rest of the NFL season when it comes to the odds.
1. Get the weather: This isn't going to be a top priority for a lot of folks, but you should be checking this info every week. Thanksgiving is fast approaching and the weather is rapidly changing for the worse in the majority of the country. That change in playing conditions means you will get a much different outcome in the elements than you would if a match was played in a dome. Just make sure you adjust your bets accordingly if you know some bad weather is on the horizon.
2. Read the injury reports: You know how long the average player in the NFL? Just 3.5 years. Pro football is a brutal sport to play, and most locker rooms look like war hospitals when you reach this point of the year. Keep an eyes on where teams are thin on the depth chart. And don't make the mistake of overlooking the offensive and defensive lines – These guys should get more scrutiny since most bettors don't think about them when handicapping a matchup.
3. Go home: Home field advantage is always important, but it holds more weight when you reach this point of the season. Teams are starting to wear down a bit (see Step 2), making bad weather (see Step 1) and long road trips leaving them wide open to injuries and miscues on the field.them more susceptible to the rigors of long-distance travel and to the challenge of playing in adverse conditions. This is a spot wher home underdogs are usually a good play once carved up the turkey; they went 14-11-1 ATS last season from Week 13 to Week 17. And if you leave out the final week of the regular season, that record is 13-9-1 ATS.
Jauron is off
The Buffalo Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) handed out some early holiday cheer by giving head coach Dick Jauron his walking papers on Tuesday. This move will appease an angry fan base, but the players themselves won't be too thrilled– except for perhaps QB Trent Edwards. There was a rumor going around that Edwards (74.1 passer rating) was going to ride the pine, with Ryan Fitzpatrick (49.8 passer rating) starting against the Jaguars.
Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell was handed the keys to the Bills. It's believed that Fewell will announce his starting QB on Wednesday; whichever man he chooses gets the honor has of playing behind an o-line that ranks No. 28 out of 32 teams in pass protection. It’ll only get worse from here since left tackle Demetrius Bell is out with a knee injury. The Bills are nine-point road pups(-115) with the total rolling in at 43.
RB Roundup
There have been three tailbacks that have been in the newspapers a lot this week; there importance to handicappers can be debated. The Bengals picked up Larry Johnson after he got released by Kansas City, but Johnson isn’t expected to play much this Sunday against the Raiders (+10 in Oakland). The Eagles are likely to be without Brian Westbrook when they face Chicago at Soldier Field as three-point road faves after he suffered his second concussion in just three weeks. And Ronnie Brown won't be suiting up for Miami this Thursday against the Panthers (-3 in Charlotte) because of a foot injury.
Ricky Williams (5.3 yards per carry) will take over the starting role for the Dolphins, although their ability to run the Wildcat offense will be compromised without Brown. The biggest concern, however, is in Philly. The Eagles have fallen to 5-4 SU and ATS, losing two of three since Westbrook (4.8 yards per carry) got his bell rung the first time against Washington. With Westbrook’s career in doubt, it looks like rookie LeSean McCoy (4.1 yards per carry) will carry the Eagles' fate in his hands. The good news for Eagles' supporters is that Chicago (4-5 SU and ATS) is ranked No. 16 in the NFL in defensive efficiency against the run and have lost four of their last five games.
