Date: Monday, November 23rd
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Texans -4 ½
Totals: 48 ½
At the start of the season this figured to be a matchup of two of the AFC’s best teams. We now know better, but this is still should be a good game. The Titans have won three straight, and feel like they are back on track. Houston is a different story. On paper they have the talent to play with any team in the league, but have had a hard time keeping momentum. The Texans have told us they believe they have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Look for a steady dose of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson to control the clock, and keep the red hot Chris Johnson off the field.
Quarterback:
We are not ready to put Vince Young in the Hall Of Fame, but there is no question the Titans have responded to the decision to put him in the lineup. We still wonder why the decision had to come from Owner Bud (the finger) Adams instead of Jeff Fisher. Young’s numbers are not overwhelming (2 TD’s/2 Int’s 86RTG) but opposing teams understand that he is a different kind of weapon then Kerry Collins. We would like to see him stretch the field by throwing deep in order to open up the running game for Johnson.
Matt Schaub brings 17 touchdown passes into the game, but he also brings nine picks. The problem with Schaub all year has been his decision making, and the fact the he continues to try to force throws, which has led to some untimely turnovers. His main weapon is still Andre Johnson, but the Texans were devastated by the loss of TE Owen Daniels who led the team with five TD catches. Schaub had a monster game against the Titans in Week 2 throwing for more than 350 yards. We don’t see those kinds of numbers again against a healthy Titans secondary.
Running Back
It is too bad the Titans have struggled as much as they have in ‘09, because it has kept Chris Johnson from getting the kind of press he deserves. Johnson has been a monster as proven by the fact he became the first back in NFL history to have a 90+ rushing TD, 50+ rushing TD, and 60+ receiving TD in the same game. Since the Titans are keeping Vince Young on a short leash, we expect a steady dose of Johnson. It is tough to argue the game plan since Johnson averages more than six yards per carry. Lyn Dale White has become the forgotten man for the Titans in Johnson’s breakout year with just 59 carries, and 1TD to this point.
For the Texans Steve Slaton continues to be listed as the No. 1 back on the depth chart, but his five fumbles are making that a week to week decision for Head Coach Gary Kubiak. The rushing game for Houston has not been very good, and Slaton and Ryan Moats need to step up in order to take the pressure of Schaub. Moats has been impressive in limited duty. He has as many rushing TD’s as Slaton in half the carries, and averages a yard more per carry then Slaton. For a team that is fighting for its playoff hopes, it may be the time to give Moats more chances, especially against a Titans run defense that has a knack of giving up big plays.
Wide Receiver:
None of the names listed at WR for the Titans are guys that should start thinking about their speeches at Canton anytime soon. We have never been able to figure out why Jeff Fisher settles for guys like Nate Washington instead of going out in free agency or in the draft and getting a legit No. 1. Look at the best teams in the league, and they all have a legit threat for the passing game. It is no surprise that Chris Johnson leads the team with 30 catches. Washington is second with 25, but our point is confirmed when you read that Washington needs one TD catch for a new career high of six.
On the other side of the ball, Andre Johnson is one of the league’s best. He has 4 100 yard games already in ‘09, and has a history of pounding the Titans. Johnson is looking for his third straight 100+ game vs. the Titans, and has averaged 178 in his past two against Tennessee. With the season ending injury to Daniels, and Slaton’s problems holding on to the football, it would not be a surprise to see Johnson get plenty of looks. He will be matched up against one of the league’s best in Cortland Finnegan, but if history repeats itself, it could be a big night for the ESPN the Magazine cover boy.
Defense/Special Teams:
The Titans defense which has been brutal most of the year has started to show signs of life during the three-game win streak. Last week against the Bills, the Titans had two sacks, three tackles for a loss, and four QB hits. The bigger number that stands out is in the turnover department. In the six Tennessee losses, the Titans were -10 in turnover margin. During the win streak, the Titans are +7 with three INT returns for TD’s in the last two games. This could be a factor Monday night if Schaub again tries to force the issue in the passing game.
If you are the Texans, you will see on simple message written on the chalkboard during all defensive meetings this week…”Stop Chris Johnson and we win the Game”. If only it was that simple. Johnson has been the key weapon during the Titans resurgence averaging more than 165 yards rushing PER GAME, not to mention the fact he added 100 yard receiving against the Bills. The Texans will load the box and force Young to beat them with his arm which may contain Johnson rushing the ball, but how the Texans defend him coming out of the backfield will be a major concern.
Key Injuries:
HOU-TE Owen Daniels/knee-(out)
Betting Trends:
Titans are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South
Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC South
The OVER is 4-0 in the Titans last four games
The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the two teams
The UNDERDOG is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams
