March Madness might be getting all of the attention, but bettors can’t forget about the NBA. If anything, this means we can squeeze a little more value out of those pro betting lines. The more attention the public spends on the NCAA Tournament, the less attention there will be on teams like the Milwaukee Bucks (10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games), who are already marginalized as it is.
While the Bucks are making money, the big-name title contenders are losing it hand over fist. Only one of the six division leaders has a profitable record this year. Here’s the carnage:
Atlantic: Boston Celtics 40-22 SU, 24-36-2 ATS
Central: Cleveland Cavaliers 50-15 SU, 32-32-1 ATS
Southeast: Orlando Magic 45-20 SU, 34-30-1 ATS
Northwest: Denver Nuggets 42-21 SU, 29-30-4 ATS
Pacific: Los Angeles Lakers 47-18 SU, 27-35-3 ATS
Southwest: Dallas Mavericks 44-21 SU, 28-36-1 ATS
The Cavaliers have taken over top spot in the league standings, and they sit in relative comfort on the NBA futures market as 4-7 favorites to win the Eastern Conference. But not all is well in the City of Cleveland. LeBron James (30.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 8.7 assists per 40 minutes) has been given the week off to rest his ankle; the Cavs have dropped the cash twice so far in his absence. More worrisome, Shaquille O’Neal (20.5 points, 11.5 rebounds/40) could miss the rest of the year with a sprained right thumb. Cleveland is without a viable center until Zydrunas Ilgauskas (14.6 points, 10.4 boards/40) is allowed to rejoin the team following his inclusion in the Antawn Jamison deal with the Washington Wizards.
While the Cavs look for that winning formula, the Celtics have entered one of their rare pockets of profitability at 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five. They have all their players back on the active roster, and they’ve added veteran Michael Finley (9.4 points, 3.8 rebounds/40) for the playoff drive. No depth problems here, nor in Orlando, where the Magic are also fully healthy and 6-0 (4-2 ATS) in their last six contests. Orlando is just 4-1 to defend the Eastern crown despite beating Cleveland last year and splitting a pair of regular-season games this year.
Out West, the Lakers are 20-29 favorites to win another conference title, but that no longer looks like a fait accompli now that the Mavericks have won 12 games in a row – all since adding center Brendan Haywood (12.0 points, 12.4 rebounds/40) in another deadline deal with Washington. The Mavs have even won their last three while Haywood sat out with a sore back, covering twice. The Lakers are only three games ahead of Dallas for top spot in the West with 17 games remaining.
Dallas is also without center Erick Dampier (finger) indefinitely, while guards Jason Terry (face) and Jose Juan Barea (ankle) are day-to-day. How is this team surviving? It helps that the Mavs have been playing a relatively easy schedule. They faced the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves twice in the last four games, and also had a date with the slumping Sacramento Kings. And there are plenty more cupcakes where that came from: Next up are the last-place New Jersey Nets (+11.5 road dogs) on Wednesday night. The Mavericks are 5-1 to win the West and entirely capable of paying off, provided they get something close to their full lineup back for the postseason. The competition will be a little stiffer then.
If you’re really looking to do some ambulance chasing, the Golden State Warriors (17-46 SU, 35-27-1 ATS) have an injured list longer than Manute Bol. Eight Warriors were on the shelf in Monday’s 135-131 loss to the New Orleans Hornets (-6). Coach Don Nelson has steered his shorthanded team to an 8-5 ATS record this past month with the likes of third-string rookie Chris Hunter (13.4 points, 8.4 rebounds/40) starting at center and D-League call-up Reggie Williams scoring 28 points against the Hornets. There’s a chance that Monta Ellis (24.8 points, 5.1 assists/40) could return Thursday against the Portland Trail Blazers; he’ll help Golden State from a basketball standpoint, but maybe not so much at the pay window.
