We’re only a few days away before finding out which 65 teams will make up this year’s NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, bracketologists are scrambling to keep up with the results of the Championship Week conference tourneys – an upset here or there can spell doom for all those bubble teams. Here’s what we know going into Thursday’s action.
Lucky Fourteen
Many of the lower conferences have already decided their champions. Fourteen automatic bids have already been handed out:
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Big Sky: Montana Grizzlies
Big South: Winthrop Eagles
Colonial: Old Dominion Monarchs
Horizon: Butler Bulldogs
Ivy: Cornell Big Red
MAAC: Siena Saints
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa Panthers
NEC: Robert Morris Colonials
Ohio Valley: Murray State Racers
Southern: Wofford Terriers
Summit: Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Sun Belt: North Texas Mean Green
West Coast: St. Mary’s Gaels
The biggest eye-opener in this group is the Gaels, who beat the Gonzaga Bulldogs 81-62 in Tuesday’s WCC final as 4.5-point puppies to earn an instant ticket to the Big Dance. Gonzaga (26-6 SU, 15-11-2 ATS) will settle for an at-large berth; St. Mary’s (26-5 SU, 19-10 ATS) was on the bubble, but no longer. Also making waves on Wednesday: Montana, who had to rally from 22 points down to beat the Weber State Wildcats 66-65 for the Big Sky championship. The Grizzlies were 3.5-point underdogs on the ol’ basketball betting line. Weber State is a familiar team to March Madness fans, but the Wildcats will have to settle for their automatic bid to the NIT for winning the Big Sky regular-season title.
Two of the 14 teams on the above list are of particular interest to sharps. Murray State (30-4 SU, 14-13-2 ATS) is one of the best pure shooting teams in Division I, ranking No. 8 in effective field-goal percentage at 55.4. And the NIU Panthers (28-4 SU, 20-11 ATS) have been making money all season long with the No. 12-ranked defense in the country. This is also a mind-numbingly slow team on offense, generating a 21-7 record for the UNDER. Whoever faces these two clubs in the first round could be in for an unwelcome surprise.
Eight is Enough
The Selection Committee is poised to hand out eight bids to the Big East. You can scratch the South Florida Bulls (20-12 SU, 19-10-2 ATS) off your dance card after they lost 69-49 to the Georgetown Hoyas (-6.5) in Wednesday’s second round of the Big East tourney. But at least the Bulls got to 20 wins. The fate of the UConn Huskies (17-15 SU, 12-18 ATS) was sealed the day before with a totally uninspired 73-51 loss to the St. John’s Red Storm (-4.5).
The other bubble team from the Big East was the Seton Hall Pirates (19-12 SU, 8-17 ATS), but their chances went belly up at the hands of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who sank the Pirates 68-56 on Wednesday as 2-point dogs. Notre Dame (22-10 SU, 15-10-1 ATS) has won five games in a row (three by upset) and covered six straight to graduate from the NIT to the NCAA Tournament.
Mizzoops
The Missouri Tigers (22-10 SU, 14-12 ATS) weren’t considered a bubble team going into the Big 12 tourney, but tongues are wagging after the defending conference champions lost 75-60 to the Nebraska Cornhuskers (+10.5) in Wednesday’s first-round matchup. Mizzou had beaten the ‘Huskers twice by wide margins during the regular season; now the injury-plagued Tigers have lost three of their last four, dropping the cash in each contest. They’ll very likely get into the Big Dance anyway with a No. 38 RPI. Get those fading hats on.
The rest of the Big 12 looks just as disorganized after the first round. The only favorite to cash in on Wednesday was the Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7), who crushed the Oklahoma Sooners 81-67 to move on to Thursday’s quarterfinals. The Texas Tech Red Raiders advanced as 1-point puppies with an 82-67 victory over the Colorado Buffaloes, and the Iowa State Cyclones (+9) gave it all they had before finally bowing 82-75 to the Texas Longhorns. That’s four missed paydays in a row for Texas to fall to 3-16 ATS since the start of conference play. Who had the ‘Horns making the Final Four this year? Hey, it could still happen.
