CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
July 16, 2013
By David Schwab
Looking back at Week 3 in the CFL, a couple of underdogs started things off with a straight up win on the road and a road favorite closed things out with a dominating win. First, Saskatchewan remained the only undefeated team in the league with a 39-28 victory over Toronto as a two-point underdog this past Thursday. On Friday, Calgary went on the road to Montreal as a two-point underdog and came away with a 22-14 win.
Saturday’s double-header started off with Winnipeg dropping a 25-20 decision against Hamilton, but covering against the spread as a 5 ½-point underdog on the road. British Columbia improved to 2-1 on the year with a 17-3 pasting of Edmonton as a 3 ½-point road favorite.
The following is a brief betting preview for Week 4 of the CFL regular season with the opening pointspread and ‘over/under’ lines provided by TopBet.
Friday, July 19
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Point-spread: Pick ‘em
Toronto has now lost its last two games both SU and ATS after opening the season with a 39-34 victory over Hamilton as a 3 ½-point home favorite. The total has gone OVER in two of the three games. Quarterback Ricky Ray turned in another strong performance despite last Thursday’s loss with 334 passing yards and two touchdowns while completing 27 of his 37 attempts.
The Blue Bombers have also dropped two of their first three games SU but they are 2-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last two games. Buck Pierce is right behind Ray in total passing yards this season with 701, which is the third-most in the CFL. Winnipeg is averaging 24 points a game.
The Argonauts have gotten the best of this East Division rivalry in recent years with 4-1 record both SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six games between the two. The road team has a slight 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings and is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Saturday, July 20
Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders
Point-spread: Calgary -7
Montreal started the season by splitting a home-and-home series against Winnipeg with the road team winning both SU and ATS. This past Friday against Calgary in the first of another home-and-home series, the Alouettes could only manage a first and fourth quarter touchdown as Anthony Calvillo continued to struggle throwing the ball. He went 22-for-36 for just 205 yards in the loss.
The Stampeders will go for the series sweep this Saturday night behind an offense that is ranked second in the West Division in scoring. Jon Cornish continues to lead the running game with 304 total yards in his first three outings. Calgary is 2-1 both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in two of the three games. Quarterback Drew Tate is listed as ‘questionable’ with an arm injury so look for Kevin Glenn to get the start if he cannot go.
Including last week’s victory over Montreal, the Stamps are now 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team in this series is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight games. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six games played in Calgary.
Edmonton Eskimos at British Columbia Lions
Point-spread: BC -8 ½
The Eskimos’ offense was non-existent in the first game of this home-and-home series against BC with less than 100 yards passing and 200 yards of total offense. Dating back to last season, Edmonton is 1-6 SU in its last seven games and 2-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in its last two games.
BC bounced-back from a 44-32 loss to Calgary on opening day as a 3 ½-point road underdog with back-to-back victories both SU and ATS the past two weeks. The total stayed UNDER in both of those games. Heading into this week’s contest the Lions have allowed the fewest points per game of any team in the CFL (21).
The Lions have owned this series over the past three seasons with a 7-1 record SU. They are 6-2 ATS during this run and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the eight games. Over the past 10 meetings, the record is evenly split SU at 5-5 between the home and road team.
Sunday, July 21
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6 ½
Hamilton’s victory this past week was just its second SU win in its last eight games. It is also 2-6 ATS over this stretch and the total has stayed UNDER in its last two contests. Hamilton quarterback Henry Burris leads the CFL in passing with 957 yards while completing 65.7 percent of his attempts.
Saskatchewan’s surprising 3-0 start both SU and ATS followed a five-game losing streak (0-4-1 ATS) to close-out the 2012 season. The total has gone OVER in all three games behind an offense that is racking-up an average of 38 points a game. Darian Durant leads the league in touchdowns passes with eight.
Hamilton is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 trips to Saskatchewan and 6-19-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings overall. The total has gone OVER in 20 of the last 28 meetings including both games between the two last season.
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