CFL Betting Notes - Week 2
June 30, 2014
By David Schwab
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The new CFL regular season just got underway this past weekend and we have already seen a pair of shocking upsets to kick things off. Winnipeg got the ball rolling with a 45-21 romp over Toronto last Thursday night as a seven-point home underdog.
After Calgary thumped Montreal 29-8 on Saturday as a 7 ½-point favorite at home, Edmonton went on the road to beat British Columbia 27-20 as an eight-point underdog. In a rematch of last season’s Grey Cup Championship, Saskatchewan was even more dominant this time around with a 31-10 victory over Hamilton as a 3 ½-point home favorite to close things out for Week 1.
Total bettors watched the ‘under’ produce a 3-1 record in Week 1.
Opening numbers provided by 5Dimes.eu
Thursday, July 3
Ottawa RedBlacks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
The Ottawa RedBlacks are the CFL’s newest franchise and they will make their debut on the road this Thursday night after enjoying an extra week to prepare with a bye. The expectations for an expansion team are never that high, but Ottawa will have an experienced gunslinger at the helm in veteran quarterback Henry Burris, who led the CFL in passing yards last season with 4,925 while playing for Hamilton.
The Blue Bombers only won three games straight-up in 2013 while averaging just 20.1 points a game, but they more than doubled that total last week against Toronto with Drew Willy lighting things up at quarterback. He completed 19-of-27 throws for 308 yards and four touchdowns.
While there are obviously no recent betting trends for Ottawa, Winnipeg comes into this matchup with a 3-9-1 record against the spread in its past 13 games and they are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 home games.
Friday, July 4
British Columbia Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: British Columbia -1
BC was listed as 5Dimes’ favorite to win this season’s Grey Cup on its preseason futures board, but last week’s loss at home has already raised some red flags. Kevin Glenn, who replaced an injured Travis Lulay at quarterback, was picked-off four times and the Lions’ ground game was held to just 53 yards.
The expectation level for Montreal’s re-tooled offense that now features former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback and Chad Johnson at wide receiver, sputtered out of the gate with just eight points in Saturday’s loss. Smith struggled to complete just 44 percent of his 41 passes for a total of 154 yards. Johnson recorded two catches for 20 yards.
The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Montreal and they are 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings overall. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two, including the last five games played at Percival Molson Stadium.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Pointspread: Edmonton -2 ½
Hamilton will quickly need to put last week’s trip to Saskatchewan in the rear view mirror to avoid a 0-2 start on this West Division road trip. It fell behind 24-1 at the half behind new starting quarterback Zach Collaros. He ended the day with 139 yards passing and a lost fumble and interception.
The Eskimos had the second-worst record in the CFL last season at 4-14 SU, but they looked like a whole different team in last Saturday’s upset against BC. Mike Reilly threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns while adding 33 yards on the ground. Edmonton’s defense was torched for an average of 28.8 points per game last season, but it came up big against BC in its 2014 season opener by holding the Lions to just three second-half points.
The home team in this series has gone 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games. Hamilton does hold a 13-6 edge ATS in the last 19 meetings in this matchup.
Saturday, July 5
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Total Line: 53 ½
The defending champs are off to another solid start this year after going 8-1 SU in their first nine games of the 2013 regular season. Darian Durant was efficient throwing the ball in the win over Hamilton last Sunday with a completion percentage of 68.2 percent, but it was the Roughriders’ ground game that led the way. Anthony Allen ran the ball 27 times for 158 yards and one score while averaging 5.9 yards a carry.
The Argonauts are still trying to figure out what hit them in last Thursday’s season opener that started with a 17-0 hole in the first quarter. Ricky Ray’s numbers were solid with 283 yards passing and two touchdowns, but Toronto’s defense failed to show up after giving-up well over 300 yards through the air and over 130 yards on the ground.
The Roughriders come into this contest with a 4-1 record ATS in the last five meetings in Toronto and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 13 games between the two at the Rogers Centre. The road team in this matchup has won six of the last eight meetings SU.
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