CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
July 29, 2014
By David Schwab
The CFL schedule heads into Week 6 of the regular season and the gap in talent between the West and East Division continues to widen. The West has four teams sitting at .500 or better while the four teams in the East have a combined record of 4-13 straight up.
Week 5 in the league kicked things off last Thursday with Calgary remaining perfect on the year in a 26-22 victory over Edmonton as a two-point road underdog. The total in that game stayed just UNDER the 49-point closing line. Friday’s only action saw Winnipeg continuing its strong start with a 23-6 victory against British Columbia as an eight-point underdog on the road. The total stayed well UNDER the closing line of 51 ½ points in that contest.
This past Saturday’s double-header kicked things off with Hamilton outlasting Ottawa 33-23 as a 6 ½-point home favorite with the total going OVER the 47-point line. Saskatchewan wrapped things up with a 37-9 rout over Toronto as an eight-point favorite at home. The total stayed UNDER the closing 51-point betting line.
Thursday, July 31
Winnipeg (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) at Hamilton (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -3 ½
Winnipeg was able to eclipse last season’s SU win total of three games with the victory over BC behind another strong performance from Drew Willy at quarterback. He completed 18-of-26 attempts for 250 yards and a score to remain second in the CFL total passing yards this season with 1,301 in five games.
The Tiger-Cats held the RedBlacks to six-points in the second half of last Saturday’s win after giving-up just 10 points in a loss to Calgary the week before. While there does not appear to be any major issues with Hamilton’s defense, it is ranked second-to-last in the league in scoring with an average of 14.8 points per game. Dan LeFevour got the start at quarterback against Ottawa for the injured Zach Collaros.
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU and 1-4 against the spread in the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 16 of the last 21 games played in Hamilton. The home team in this matchup is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games.
Friday, Aug. 1
Toronto (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Montreal (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -3 ½
Toronto has bared little resemblance to the team that won the East last season with a SU record of 11-7. Ricky Ray is still throwing the ball all over the field with a CFL-high 1,501 passing yards and six touchdown throws, but the Argonauts’ defense has not made things easy with an average of 29.8 points allowed. This is also the highest total in the league.
Montreal is coming off a bye week after stumbling out to a 1-3 start against three different teams from the West (it split two games against BC). An ineffective Troy Smith has seen the majority of the action at quarterback, but look for the Alouettes to possibly turn to Tanner Marsh if Smith gets off to another slow start.
Toronto has covered the spread in five of its last six trips to Montreal, but overall in this East Division showdown it is 7-15 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The road team has won the last six games SU and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of the last nine meetings between the two.
British Columbia (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Calgary (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 45 ½
Last week’s loss to Winnipeg was a serious set-back for a Lions’ team that was favored by many to win the West this year so this Friday becomes a huge test to get back into the race. Kevin Glenn continues to fill-in at quarterback for the injured Travis Lulay, who is still recovering from a shoulder injury.
Calgary may not have the most dynamic offense in the CFL with an average 24.8 points a game, but that has been more than enough production with a defense that has given-up a grand total of 52 points through its first four outings. Bo Levi Mitchell has done an excellent job at managing the game at quarterback and Matt Walter is the team’s leading rusher with 139 yards on 29 carries.
BC is 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six games. The home team in this West Division clash has won SU in seven of the last nine games and the total has stayed UNDER in two of the last three meetings.
Saturday, Aug. 2
Saskatchewan (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Ottawa (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Last season’s CFL Grey Cup Champs proved they still know how to put points on the board and play defense with last week’s win over Toronto. This followed a shaky 1-2 start in the Roughriders first three games. Will Ford led the way against the Argonauts with 114 yards rushing and three touchdowns after recently joining the team.
The expansion RedBlacks keep showing up week after week as a better team than their record might indicate. Henry Burris put the ball up 44 times against Hamilton last week and completed 27 passes for 290 yards and two scores. Running back Chevon Walker is ranked fourth in the league in rushing yards with 251 yards on 45 attempts.
Saskatchewan is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win, but it is just 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games.
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