CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
October 9, 2018
By David Schwab
The extended Week 17 schedule due to Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday started with Winnipeg’s thrilling 40-32 victory over Ottawa in overtime on Friday night. The action shifted to British Columbia on Saturday night and the Lions squeezed out a 26-23 win against Toronto as a seven-point favorite.
Monday’s holiday doubleheader started with Calgary grinding out a 12-6 road win against Montreal as a heavy 13 ½-point favorite. Saskatchewan remained the hottest team in the CFL right now with a 19-12 victory over Edmonton as a 3 ½-point favorite at home.
Friday, Oct. 12
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7
Total: 52 ½
Ottawa’s loss combined with a Week 16 bye has the Tiger-Cats a game back in the East Division title race. They have already beaten Toronto once in a 42-28 romp on Sept. 3 as nine-point home favorites. The total went OVER 51 points in that game and it has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in their last five outings. Hamilton is averaging 29.1 points per game as the third-highest scoring team in the CFL.
The Argonauts’ extended straight-up losing streak reached six games and it was just the second time they covered against the spread during this slide. The total stayed UNDER the closing 52-point line against the Lions after going OVER in their previous four games. Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games with the total going OVER in four of its last five games played at home.
-- Hamilton has a 7-2 edge ATS in its last nine road games against the Argonauts and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Toronto.
Saturday, Oct. 13
Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -3 ½
Saskatchewan has just one SU loss in its last eight games with Monday’s win against Edmonton. This was the first time the Roughriders were able to cover in their last four games and the total stayed UNDER for the first time in their last six contests. Defensive end Willie Jefferson returned a late fourth-quarter interception 49 yards for a score in Monday’s come-from-behind victory.
The Blue Bombers helped their postseason plans with Friday’s win while extending their current winning streak to three games both SU and ATS. This followed a four-game losing streak (SU and ATS) in what has been a wild roller-coaster ride since early August. Matt Nichols threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns against Ottawa and, on the year, he has completed 64.5 percent of his 341 passing attempts for 2,633 yards and 15 scores.
-- Saskatchewan has already won a home-and-home series against Winnipeg both SU and ATS heading into the third meeting this season between the two West Division foes. It won the first two meetings by a combined score of 63-50 and the total went OVER in each of those games.
Ottawa RedBlacks (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -3 ½
Despite Friday’s loss to Winnipeg, the RedBlacks still clinched a playoff berth in the East. The total went OVER 52 ½ points in that game after staying UNDER in four of their previous six games. Trevor Harris played one of his better games of the year last Friday night with 349 yards passing and three scoring strikes against no interceptions. William Powell turned in another strong effort running the ball with 95 yards on 14 carries.
Edmonton is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the CFL playoff picture in the West. Mike Reilly was picked off three times in Monday’s loss and he completed just 48.1 percent of his 27 passing attempts on the day. This was the Eskimos’ third loss in a row both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in all three setbacks after this once potent offense was held to a combined 30 points.
-- Edmonton has won eight of its last nine home games against Ottawa SU. It has a 6-3 edge ATS and the total has gone OVER in six of those nine meetings.
British Columbia Lions (7-7 AU, 8-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary-10 ½
Total: 49 ½
The Lions are right in the thick of things for a playoff berth in the jumbled West Division standings. With Saturday’s win, they are 4-1 SU in their last five games with a 3-2 record ATS. With the total staying UNDER against Toronto, it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in eight of BC’s last nine games. Jonathon Jennings continues to get the call at quarterback for an injured Travis Lulay on an offense that is averaging 23.6 PPG.
Calgary’s lead over Saskatchewan in the West sits at a game and half, so it still needs to win on Saturday to stay on track for another division title. There has to be some concern with Monday’s effort, but for some reason Montreal always plays the Stampeders’ tough. This is still a team that is averaging 30.7 points per game behind Bo Levi Mitchel at quarterback while holding opposing teams to 19.3 PPG.
-- Calgary beat BC 27-18 in early August as a 12 ½-point home favorite to extend its SU winning streak against the Lions to five games. The total stayed UNDER 49 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
12-4 L16 G-Plays, 26-10 This Year
6-1 L7 Guarantees, 4-2 L6 Picks
4-2 L6, 8-4 L12 Guarantees
4-2 L6, 13-7 Run, 13-4 L17 Totals
4-1 Last 5 CFL Selections
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