CFL Betting Notes - Semis
November 5, 2018
By David Schwab
The final weekend of the CFL regular season started with Ottawa rolling over Toronto 24-9 on Friday night as a seven-point home favorite. Winnipeg came up short in a 33-24 road loss against Edmonton as a five-point underdog in the first of three Saturday games.
Montreal was able to end a rather dismal season on a high note with a 30-28 road win against Hamilton as a six-point underdog ahead of Calgary’s 26-9 victory against British Columba as an 8.5-point road favorite to snap a three-game skid.
Sunday, Nov. 11
British Columbia (9-9 SU, 10-8 ATS) at Hamilton (8-10 SU, 7-10-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -3
BC’s loss to Calgary has it taking the crossover route in the CFL playoffs. This was its second loss in a row both straight-up and against the spread after putting together a 6-1 SU run in its previous seven games while going 5-2 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in Saturday’s contest and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 11 of the Lions’ last 13 games.
Quarterback Travis Lulay has played at a very high level, missed playing time due to injury and stunk up the joint over the course of the year. How he does against the Tiger-Cats this Sunday if he gets the start remains to be seen, but he closed out the regular season by going 10-for-16 for 111 yards and two interceptions. Jonathon Jennings came in to complete 16 of his 21 passing attempts for 140 yards.
Hamilton had nothing to lose or gain in Saturday’s loss to Montreal as the second seed in the East Division behind Ottawa. Back-to-back losses to the Redbacks in its previous two games sealed the team’s fate in the postseason. There has to be some genuine concern with how the Tiger-Cats finished the regular season at 2-5 SU and ATS over their final seven games.
To get past the Lions on Sunday, Hamilton quarterback Jeramiah Masoli will need his A game. He finished second to Edmonton’s Mike Reilly in total passing yards with 5,209 and he was third in the CFL in passing touchdowns with 28 against 18 interceptions. The Tiger-Cats averaged 28.5 points per game as the highest scoring team in the East Division this season.
--The Lions are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six road games.
--The Tiger-Cats have gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games in the postseason and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five playoff games at home.
--This season’s home-and-home series in late September was split with the home team winning each game SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 16 meetings in Hamilton.
Winnipeg (10-8 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -2 ½
Following back-to-back losses (SU and ATS) to Saskatchewan in an early September home-and-home series, the Blue Bombers went on to five of their last six games both SU and ATS. Saturday’s loss to Edmonton snapped that five-game winning streak. The total went OVER 52 points in that loss after staying UNDER in four of Winnipeg’s previous five games.
One of the big reasons for that recent five-game winning streak was the Blue Bombers’ ability to tighten things up on defense. On the year, this side of the ball has allowed an average of 23.3 points per game, but that number dropped to 14 points in those five victories highlighted by a 31-0 shutout against Saskatchewan at home on Oct. 13.
Other than that late-season loss to Winnipeg, the Roughriders were probably the hottest CFL team over the second half of the season at 9-2 SU in their final 11 games. They were a more modest 7-4 ATS in this same span with the total going OVER in seven of the 11 games. Saskatchewan went 6-3 ATS in nine home games this year.
Following the shutout against the Blue Bombers on the road, Saskatchewan did bounce back in a big way with a 29-24 road upset against Calgary the following week as a 8 ½-point underdog. It closed out the season with a 35-16 victory against BC at home as a 4 ½-point favorite ahead of last week’s bye. The extra rest could be an added factor in this Sunday’s home game.
--The Blue Bombers have failed to cover in five of their last six games in the opening round of the postseason and the total has gone OVER in 18 of their last 26 West Division games.
--The Roughriders are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in eight of their last 11 games following a SU win.
--Saskatchewan has a 2-1 edge in the season series both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in two of the three games. Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against the Roughriders and the total has gone OVER in the last nine meetings in Saskatchewan.
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