Conference Trends - Part II
January 29, 2013
By Bruce Marshall
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Following is Part II of our team trends update, beginning with the Ivy League. All point-spread and "totals" trends include results thru Sunday, January 27.
Brown...The Bears have failed to cover their last four away. Columbia...President Obama's alma mater is "over" its last three at home in Morningside Heights. Cornell...Tough going for Bill Courtney's Big Red, dropping 7 of its last 10 vs. the number. Dartmouth...Though the Big Green performed admirably when pushing Harvard into OT on Saturday in Cambridge, that was Dartmouth's only cover in its last six board games (1-4-1). Harvard...Lots going on with Tommy Amaker's defending Ivy champs and loop favorites; the Crimson are 6-1 as a dog this season and 5-0-1 vs. the line their last five away from home, also 6-2-1 vs. the points their last nine overall. Penn...The Quakers are finding some traction, covering four of their last five overall and their last four as a visitor as well. Princeton...Mitch Henderson's Tigers have underachieved as chalk, covering just one of their last six as a favorite (even including a recent win over blood rival Penn). Yale...The Eli are "over" 5-1 in their last six.
Canisius...Jim Baron's Golden Griffs have been streaky this season; after some good early work, they've dropped 6 of their last 8 vs. the number. The Buffalo branch of the Jesuits has also gone "under" 7 of its last 8. Fairfield...Tough going lately for Sydney Johnson's Stags, who have covered just one of their last seven. Iona...Tim Cluess' Gaels are playing the same uptempo style as they have in recent years, helping Iona to a 10-2 "over" mark its last 12. Loyola-Maryland...Despite their Sunday loss vs. Iona, Jimmy Patsos' Greyhounds are offering decent value lately, covering 5 of their last 7. Manhattan...Even without injured high scorer George Beamon, the Jaspers have covered 6 of their last 8 after Sunday's upset win at Rider. Marist...Tough year for the Red Foxes, but they have covered 4 of their last five. Niagara...Calvin Murphy's alma mater has covered 7 of its last 9 games after Sunday's mild upset win at nearby Canisius. Rider...Though the Broncs have covered 7 of their last 9, they might be cooling off after dropping a pair at home in Lawrenceville over the weekend vs. Canisius and Rider. Rider is also "under" 10-3 its last 13. Siena...The deeply-discounted Saints have covered 3 of their last 4. St. Peter's...The Peacocks' plume has been camouflaged by a 1-8 spread mark in their last nine mostly root-canal games.
Akron...Note that the hot Zips have won their last 11 games SU. Ball State...The Cards are 5-1 vs. the line their last six away and also "over" 5-2 their last 7 overall. Bowling Green...Lots going on with the Falcons, "over" 6-1 in their last 7, but also 2-5-1 their last 8 vs. the number. Buffalo...Reggie Witherspoon's Bulls are just 1-6 vs. the line their last 7 at home and 2-6 overall vs. their last 8 vs. the number (but with covers in their last 2). Central Michigan...Keno Davis' Chips are "over" 9-3 their last 12 overall. Eastern Michigan...Keep an eye on the Eagles, who have covered their last 5 overall and are 5-1 vs. the points their last six at home in Ypsilanti. Kent State...The Golden Flashes are 6-1 vs. the number their last 8 away. Miami-Ohio...Nothing great this season for new HC John Cooper, as the RedHawks are 3-7-2 vs. the points their last 12 overall. Northern Illinois...The Huskies are offering some value on the road with their deep discounts form the oddsmakers, covering 7 of their last 9 away. NIU also "under" 12-4 its last 16. Ohio...The Bobcats are not handling the pointspread premiums being placed upon them, covering just 1 of their last 5. Toledo... The Rockets are 4-1 their last 5 away and "over" 4 of their last 5 overall. Western Michigan...The under-the-radar Broncos have covered 4 of their last 5
Bradley...Fade the Braves, who have failed to cover their last seven. Creighton...Sunday's easy win and cover vs. SIU broke a string of three straight spreads Ls by the Bluejays. Creighton is also "under" 10-4 its last 14. Drake...The Bulldogs have a few things going on, including "over" 9-2-2 their last 13 and a 1-4 mark their last five away from home. Evansville...The Purple Aces have provided good value, covering 5 of their last 7 overall, and 7 of their last 9 as a dog. The Aces have also covered their last three as host. Illinois State...Not much normalcy in Normal, as the Redbirds have dropped 8 of their last 9 vs. the number, including their last five as host. Indiana State...The value-laden Sycamores are 11-2 their last 13 on the board. Missouri State...Paul Lusk's Bears are quietly surging, covering 8 of their last 9 overall as well as their last four on the road. Northern Iowa...The Panthers have covered 4 of their last 5. Southern Illinois...Fade Barry Hinson's Salukis, just 3-6 their last nine overall and 1-4 their last 5 at home in Carbondale. Wichita State...Gregg Marshall's Wheatshockers are mostly handling the pointspread premiums placed upon them, covering 6 of their last 9 overall and 4 of their last 5 at home in the Roundhouse.
Air Force...Don't overlook the Falcons, who have covered seven of their last nine, as well as their last three at home in Clune Arena. Boise State...The Broncos are suddenly losing traction, with no covers in their last four. Boise is also "over" 9-3 its last 12. Colorado State...Larry Eustachy's Rams are 6-2-1 vs. the number their last nine and "under" in 8 of their last 11. Fresno State...The tedious Bulldogs are nonetheless "over" in 5 of their last 7. Also beware laying points with Rodney Terry's team, which is 0-3 as chalk this term. Nevada...David Carter's erratic Wolf Pack is 6-11-1 vs. the points this season. Nevada is also "under" 5-1-1 its last seven at the Lawlor Center. New Mexico...The Lobos are definitely trending "under" (10-1), although we got the point before their 34-point "explosion" on Saturday at San Diego State. Steve Alford's bunch is also 4-1-1 vs. the points its last six at The Pit. San Diego State...Aztecs "over" 7-4-2 their last 13 overall. Wyoming...The Cowboys, minus suspended star G Luke Martinez, have been faltering, covering just one of their last four. Note Wyo also "under" 8 in a row.
Austin Peay...It's a down year for the Guvs, just 1-13 SU their last 14 games. The Peay is also "over" 6-3 its last 9. Belmont...New to the Valley this season, Rick Byrd's Nashville-based Belmont has won its last 8 SU and is also "over" 5-1 its last 6. Eastern Kentucky...The Colonels have provided some decent under-the-radar value lately, covering 5 of their last 6. EKU is also "over" 4 in a row. Eastern Illinois...The Panthers have been streaky, covering their last three after dropping their previous four vs. the number. Earlier in the season, EIU had another 4-game spread slide. Jacksonville State...The Gamecocks have been "over" in 7 of 8, and 9 of their last 11 games. Morehead State..Stirring, the Eagles have covered 4 in a row. Murray State...The Racers, last season's OVC champs, are just 3-7 their last 10 on the board. Also "under" 7-1-1 their last 9. SE Missouri State...Dickie Nutt's Redhawks are struggling, with no covers their last five on the road and just 1-9 overall their last 10 overall on the board. UT-Martin...The Skyhawks have won just 2 of their last 15 SU; also "under" 6-3 last nine. Tennessee State...The Tigers have covered 6 of their last 8, but note that includes dropping their last 2 vs. the number. They're also "over" their last 5. Tennessee Tech...The Eagles are 2-8 their last 10 on the board, also "under" 7-2 last 9.
Arizona...The Cats are just 2-6 vs. the spread their last 8 on the board, also "under" 10-3-1 their last 14. Arizona State...Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are off a rousing win on Saturday vs. UCLA and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including three straight on the road. ASU is also "under" 8-1-1 its last 10. Cal...The disappointing Bears are 3-9 their last 12 vs. the spread as well as "under" 8-2 their last 10. Colorado...Tad Boyle's Buffs have steadied with three straight wins and covers after a previous slump. They've also covered 6 of 8 at the Coors Center in Boulder. Oregon...The surprising Ducks are also "surprisingly" 1-4 their last 5 vs. the number, though they've won nine games in a row SU. Also 7-3-1 "over" their last 11. Oregon State...Craig Robinson's OSU is covering some numbers (4-1 last 5) but also losing games outright (1-4 SU those last five). The Beavers are also "under" 6 of their last 8. Southern Cal...Another tumultuous season at Troy, with the third in-season coaching change in recent memory at Jefferson & Figueroa. SC is only 5-11-1 vs. the number its last 17 since early in the season. Stanford...Even after Sunday's win at Utah, the Cardinal is 3-6 its last 9 vs. the spread and just 1-5 against the points its last six on the road. UCLA...The Bruins failed again as road chalk on Saturday at ASU and are 0-5 in that role this season. Ben Howland's team is also "under" 6-2 its last 8. Utah...The fading Utes have covered just 1 of their last five; they're also "over" in 4 of those last 5. Washington...Lorenzo Romar's Huskies are 5-2 vs. the line their last seven. U-Dub is also playing at a slower tempo than in recent years, reflected in a 6-3 "under" mark its last nine. Washington State...Ken Bone's Cougars are 4-2 their last six as a dog.
Alabama...The Tide is "under" 8-2 its last 10 and also 2-5 its last 7 as chalk. Arkansas...The Hogs have yet to win SU in six games away from home this season and have failed to cover their last three as a visitor as well. Auburn...Tony Barbee's Tigers are quietly providing some decent spread value, covering 4 of their last 5 at Auburn Arena and 7 of their last 9 overall. Auburn is also "over" 6-3 its last 9. Florida...The rampaging Gators have won and covered their last seven overall, also covers their last five on the road. Georgia...Just when we're ready to count out mark Fox's Bulldogs, they spring an upset like last Saturday's vs. Texas A&M. Georgia is also "under" its last three after "overs" in 7 of previous 8. Kentucky...Coach Cal's Cats are just 1-5 vs. the number their last six on the board. LSU...Johnny Jones' Tigers have covered their last two but are still only 4-7 their last 11 on the board. Ole Miss...The surging Rebs are 5-1 vs. the line at home this season and 6-2 overall their last 8 against the number (though failing to cover in their last two). Rebs also "under" 4-1 last five. Mississippi State...No covers last three at home or last four overall for Bulldogs, also "over" their last three. Missouri...SEC newcomer Tigers 4-1 last five vs. line at home and "over" 5-2-1 last 8 overall. South Carolina...Frank Martin's Gamecocks have covered their last four as a dog and 5 of their last 7 overall. SC also "under" 7-2 its last 9. Tennessee...Lots going on with Cuonzo Martin's Vols, who are 5-1 their last six as a dog but only 1-4-1 their last six as chalk. Texas A&M...Ags "under" 9-1 their last 10. Vanderbilt...Dores "over" 3 of last 4 but still "under" 10 of last 14. Vandy also covered its last three as chalk.
Appalachian State...Jason Capel's Mountaineers are "under" 8-4 last 12. They've also dropped last 4 vs. line. Chattanooga...The Mocs are "over" 7-0-1 their last 8. College of Charleston...Cougs 1-3 vs. line last 4 at John Kresse Arena. Davidson...Wildcats "under" 6-3-1 last 10. Elon...Matt Matheny's Fighting Phoenix are 7-3-1 their last 11 vs. line, also "over" 7-1 last 8. Furman...The Paladins have covered 6 of their last 8 on road. Georgia Southern...The Eagles are 4-1 their last 5 as a dog. The Citadel...Chuck Driesell's Bulldogs have covered 4 of last 5 after dropping previous seven vs. number. UNC-Greensboro...Spartans only 3-7 vs. line last 10, also "under" 6-1 last 7. Western Carolina...Catamounts only 1-4 straight-up last five at home. Wofford...Mike Young's Terriers just 2-6-1 their last 9 on the board.
IPFW...No covers last five for Tony Jasick's Mastodons. IUPUI...Jags just 1-4 vs. line last five; also "over" 4 of last 5. UM-Kansas City...Kangaroos have hopped to a 7-3 "under" mark last ten, also 4-1 last five away. Nebraska-Omaha...Not offering bad value at all, the Mavericks are 5-3 their last 8 on the board. North Dakota State...The Bison are 1-4 their last five vs. the number after a 9-1 spread run earlier this season. Saul Phillips' side also "under" 11-2 its last 13 overall. Oakland...Greg Kampe's Golden Grizzlies are "over" six in a row. South Dakota State...Scott Nagy's jumpin' Jackrabbits are 4-0 their last four and 7-2 vs. the number their last nine overall. Western Illinois...Jim Molinari's rugged Leathernecks are 12-4 their last 16 on the board.
Arkansas State...Red Wolves 7-3 vs. line last 10, also "under" 4-1 last five. Arkansas-Little Rock...Trojans 2-7 vs. spread last nine away. Florida Atlantic...Mike Jarvis' Owls "under" 5 of last 6, and 8 of last 11 overall. Florida International...The Golden Panthers are "under" 5 of their last 7 for new HC Richard Pitino. UL-Monroe...The lowly Warhawks have no covers in their last three, or four of their last five overall. They had covered 6 of 7 previously. UL-Lafayette...Bob Marlin's Ragin' Cajuns are struggling vs. the line, just 1-6 their last seven overall and no covers their last six as a visitor. Middle Tennessee...Kermit Davis' Blue Raiders are 6-1 their last 7 at home vs. the number, also "over" 4-1 last 5. North Texas...Mean Green "under" 5-1 last six for new HC Tony Benford. UNT also just 1-4 vs. line last five on road. South Alabama...Ronnie Arrow's Jags have covered 4 of their last five, also "under" 4-1 last five. Troy...Don Maestri's Trojans 5-1 their last 6 on the board, including three straight covers as host. Also "over" 5-2 last seven. Western Kentucky...Ray Harper's Hilltoppers are just 1-6 their last seven on the board, also "under" five in a row.
BYU...Cougs 5-1 last six vs. line at Marriott Center, also "under" 10-4 last 14 overall. Gonzaga...Surprisingly, Zags only 1-5 last six vs. line at home. Also "under" last four overall. Loyola-Marymount...Lions no covers last four, or 11 of 16 this season for wild man HC Max Good. Pepperdine...Decent value all season, including covers last three at home in Malibu and 5 of last 7 away from Firestone Fieldhouse. Portland...No covers last four or in six of last seven for Eric Reveno's Pilots. San Diego...HC Bill Grier is going to find himself on the hot seat if Toreros can't shake recent slump (no wins or covers last three). USD also "under" 7-1 last 8. San Francisco...Dons have rediscovered early-season spread magic, covering 8 of last 10. They've also covered their last six on the road. Santa Clara...No place like the road in Broncos games; SCU 7-1 vs. number away, but 1-7 vs. spread last 8 at Leavey Center. Saint Mary's...Gaels 4-1 vs. line last five away.
Be aware of some of the staggering spread win numbers the road teams have posted in WAC play! Denver...Joe Scott's Pioneers are 5-1 their last 6 vs. the spread, also "under" 6-2 their last 8. Idaho...Road team has covered last nine Vandals games. La Tech...Road team has covered last five La Tech games; Bulldogs also 11-5 vs. spread last 16 overall. New Mexico State...Marvin Menzies' Aggies are finally stirring, winn ing their last seven SU and covering last four. San Jose State...The Spartans' season has gone pear-shaped since the suspension of star G James Kinney; SJSU no wins last five or covers last four, also "under" last five as well for George Nessman's team. Seattle...Road team is 8-1 in last nine Redhawks' games; the Seattle Jesuits are also "over" 5 of their last seven. Texas State...Bobcats have covered four straight, but note road team 9-0 vs. spread in last nine TSU games. UT-Arlington...Road team 8-0-1 vs. spread in last nine games involving Scott Cross' Movin' Mavs. UTA also "under" 9-4 last 13. UT-San Antonio...Roadrunners "over" 8-1 last 9. Utah State...Injury-plagued Utags no covers in last seven.
10-5 L15 G-Plays, +2,786 TY
7-1 L8 G-Plays, +2,033 G-Plays TY
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 3-0 Sat., 14-5 L19
5-1 L6, 8-2 L10 Guarantees
4-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Guarantees
13-4 L17 Guaranteed Plays
18-10, +831 CBK Last 4 Days
14-5 L19 G-Plays, 15-6 L21 Totals
9-4 L13, 24-10 L34 Guarantees
21-10 L31 Totals, +3,172 Totals TY
8-3 L2 Saturdays, 10-4 L14 Guarantees