January 14, 2014
By Greg Smith
Editor's Note: Greg Smith's college basketball selections can be purchased daily on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
Here’s a look at this week’s Top 10 Stockwatch and how they will match up against the spread versus their conference competitors.
1) Arizona: (17-0 SU, 12-4 ATS) - BUY
Buying the Wildcats this year has made you profitable. They are very sound defensively and can shoot well from just about anywhere on the court. They host ASU this week on Thursday before preparing for Colorado and Utah next weekend. For now, they should have no problem beating the Sun Devils.
2) Syracuse: (17-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) - BUY
The Orange are a solid team, although I feel they have trouble covering the number at times, but they cover just enough to keep you buying their stock. Since Syracuse is new to the ACC, a lot of teams have never faced the Jim Boeheim zone defense, so I see confusion from teams early in conference play. I like the buy…for now…until February. This Saturday, the Orange will face a familiar foe in Pittsburgh at home.
3) Wisconsin: (16-0 SU, 11-5 ATS) - SELL
Wisconsin was lucky to beat Iowa 75-71 last week. Lucky for them, the referees were rooting for the Badgers and made sure they snuck out a win. They play Indiana on the road this Tuesday and then Michigan at home on Saturday. I don’t believe they cover either game. I’m selling the Badgers.
4) Michigan State: (15-1 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) – HOLD
Tom Izzo’s team beat the Buckeyes 72-68 and Golden Gophers 87-75 at home last week. Michigan State blew a late lead against Ohio State and failed to cover but it did manage to steal an overtime cover against Minnesota. The Spartans play Northwestern and Illinois on the road. They will be favored in both games and I don’t see much benefit in the line. I would hold on Michigan State and wait until they play a tougher opponent for better line value
5) Wichita State: (17-0 SU, 10-3-1 ATS) - BUY
The Shockers have a real chance of running the table in their regular season (but not the spread). Usually these types of teams disappoint from an ATS perspective, especially when February rolls around and they are playing teams for the second time. But for this month I would buy like crazy.
6) Villanova (15-1 SU, 11-3 ATS) - BUY
Villanova is killing opponents right now. It’s easily averaging double digit victories over their opponents 60% of the time, which is resulting in a great ATS record. I like the Wildcats to continue their winning ways.
7) Florida (13-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) – SELL
I can see the Gators having a little trouble focusing this week. In their last game, Arkansas gave them the win by missing two key free throws with seconds left. Although their record is good, their ATS numbers are fickle to say the least. I’m selling Florida. Too many back door covers could be pending.
8) Iowa State (14-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) – HOLD
The Cyclones suffered their first home loss of the season on Monday against Kansas, who will likely replace them in next week’s Top 25. Since Iowa State has now dropped two in a row, I’m holding and watching to see how they rebound against Texas.
9) Oklahoma State (14-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) - SELL
The Cowboys are hard to figure out. They are ranked 14th overall in total offense and 60th in total defense. They seem to play down to their opponent, which is resulting in a mediocre .500 ATS record. They have TCU at home and then must travel to Lawrence s and take on the Jayhawks. I think they beat TCU, but not cover and play Kansas tough, but not cover…SELL.
10) San Diego State (14-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) – BUY
Look who made the Top 10! Good for Steve Fisher! The Aztecs have lost once this year and it was to top-ranked Arizona. Last week they beat Kansas and now head into conference play where they should continue being victorious. I like the buy on San Diego State.
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