Top 10 - Stock Watch
January 21, 2014
By Greg Smith
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Here’s another look at this week’s Top 10 Stock Watch and how they will match up against the spread versus their conference competitors. Remember, teams are starting to see each other for the second time around. It would be foolish, for any bettors to underestimate the power of revenge.
1) ARIZONA: (18-0 SU, 13-4 ATS) - BUY
If you are betting Arizona, you’re winning over 75% of your bets this season. My grandfather once told me, “You don’t leave fun, to find fun.” Not bad advice.
2) Syracuse: (17-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) - SELL
The Orange are getting a week off before traveling to Miami, but the Hurricanes get a week off too. My one concern with Syracuse is their performance on the road with a 4-4 ATS record. They are playing Miami for the second time this season. I see a focused Hurricane team ready for revenge.
3) Michigan State: (17-1 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) - SELL
The Spartans surprisingly are only batting .500 ATS at home this season. They host Indiana on Tuesday as 12-point favorites. Considering their ATS record at home and being it’s the second time these two teams have met this year, I believe a double-digit spread is too much. Michigan State comes out victorious, but only by a few baskets.
4) Villanova: (16-2 SU, 12-4 ATS) - BUY
Villanova got brought back down to earth Monday with a Creighton thumping. This will be the last time ‘Nova is in the Top 10 this season, but in the meantime, I see an angry Wildcat team ready to “let out some steam”, on their next opponent…Marquette.
5) Wichita State: (19-0 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) - SELL
You can’t say much more about the Shockers. They are a good basketball team in a below average conference. They should go undefeated, but they are starting to play teams for the second time this year. The spread will be higher and the opponents will be better prepared. They are on the road this week against Illinois State and Drake. I’m selling.
6) Florida (15-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) - HOLD
The Gators have the 10th best overall defense in the country, while their offense is 170 overall. The defense is keeping them in the winner’s circle, but not covering spreads. Florida hits the road to play Alabama and then back home to face Tennessee. I think they cover the spread in one of these games; I’m just not sure which one. I’m holding on Florida.
7) San Diego State (16-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) - HOLD
The Aztecs continue to roll, but they are only 3-8 ATS in the Mountain West. They are coming off a huge rival victory over UNLV and are now on the road this week. I do not like the 3-8 ATS statistic, so I’m holding on Steve Fisher’s team for now.
8) Kansas (14-4 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) - BUY
The early tough schedule that Bill Self implemented is paying dividends. The Jayhawks are starting to roll over teams and doing it against the spread as well. Since the conference play began, Kansas is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. I’m going to stay with the Jayhawks and continue to buy.
9) Wisconsin (16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS) - BUY
The Badgers have lost their last two games, with their last setback occurring last Saturday against Michigan at home. That won’t sit well with Bo Ryan. Wisconsin goes on the road this week to play Minnesota and Purdue. I see Wisconsin taking out some frustration. I’m buying.
10) Iowa (15-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - BUY
The Hawkeyes are for real. Teams and bettors that aren’t taking this team seriously are losing games and money. I don’t see Iowa leaving the Top 10 anytime soon. They play Michigan and Northwestern on the road and they will win and cover both matchups. I like the Hawkeyes moving forward in conference play.
11-5 L16 G-Plays, +2,886 TY
4-0 LN, 62% +2,133 G-Plays TY
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 5-0 Run, 15-5 L20
5-2 L7, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Guarantees
13-5 L18 Guaranteed Plays
14-6 L20 G-Plays, 17-6 L22 Totals
10-4 L14, 25-10 L35 Guarantees
23-11 L34 Totals, +3,262 Totals TY
8-3 L2 Saturdays, 10-4 L14 G-Plays