Top 10 - Stock Watch
January 28, 2014
By Greg Smith
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Expect chaos these next few weeks, as unranked teams look to find a “marquee” win over worthy opponents, in an effort to earn a spot in March.
From my experience the Top 10 will jockey positions a lot from now until conference tournaments.
In other words…we begin dumping our portfolio. Teams we bought in December are no longer profitable.
Let’s take a look.
1) Arizona: (20-0 SU, 13-6 ATS) - BUY
We’re not jumping off the Wildcat bandwagon quite yet. Sean Miller has his team playing at their very best and is definitely a final four contender, but their perfect season will come to an end…just not this week.
2) Syracuse: (19-0 SU, 10-4-1 ATS) - SELL
Want to win championships? Having a good point guard is critical and Syracuse has the best in the country. Once you’ve seen Tyler Ennis play you may never bet against him again. As long as he’s healthy, Syracuse has a chance to win it. If you want to bet the Orange from here on out, expect to lay a big number.
3) Florida: (17-2 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) - SELL
The Gators will continue to win games, especially with their 9th best defense, but it’s their ATS record that concerns me, especially on the road where they struggle to cover. This week they play at Mississippi State and I don’t believe they will cover a double-digit number.
4) Wichita State: (21-0 SU, 13-3-1 ATS) - BUY
The Shockers’ big test will come next week when they travel to Indiana State. This week with Loyola- Chicago and Evansville on their “to do list” it will be just another ho hum week.
5) San Diego State: (18-1 SU, 10-6 ATS) - HOLD
The Aztecs snuck one out against Utah State last week and are starting to understand how tough the Mountain west conference can be on the road. That won’t be a problem this week as they play at home against Colorado State. This is, however the second go around for the Rams this season…covering could be a challenge.
6) Kansas (15-4 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) - SELL
The Jayhawks play a struggling Iowa State team on Wednesday at home before they travel to Texas on Saturday. I’ll make this simple. They beat the Cyclones, but don’t cover. If some rare chance they’re underdogs against the Longhorns, I would think twice about betting Kansas.
7) Michigan State (18-2 SU, 10-7-2 ATS) - HOLD
The Spartans have performed better ATS on the road than at home being 5-1. They are going to need all the help they a can get when they face the Buckeyes. Due to Michigan State’s previous loss to Michigan, the spread will be within reach, but man it’s hard to win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Too close to call.
8) Oklahoma State (16-3 SU, 8-8 ATS) - SELL
The Cowboys finally make it to the Top 10, only to get beat by the Sooners on Monday night. Their record against the spread is poor and their week-to-week performance is inconsistent. Too much uncertainty to be making bets on All-American Marcus Smart and company.
9) Villanova (17-2 SU, 13-5 ATS) - BUY
Besides their meltdown to Creighton last week the Wildcats have one of the best ATS records in the country and playing Temple this week will not threaten it. Buy the Wildcats while you have the chance because February gets tough.
10) Michigan (15-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) – SELL
Surprised to see Michigan in the Top-10? Don’t be. They are playing better than anyone in the country. There’s just one little problem…they play at Indiana on Super Bowl Sunday. Betting on teams playing inside Assembly Hall is never wise.
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