Top 10 - Stock Watch
February 11, 2014
By Greg Smith
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It’s time to really pay attention to teams that are sitting on the bubble. A win over a highly-ranked team can almost certainly guarantee your chances to play in March. There are a few games this week that fit the criteria.
Let’s take a look…
1) Syracuse: (23-0 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) - SELL
The Orange will be tested this week as they travel to Pittsburgh on Wednesday and play on one of the best home court advantages in college basketball. I believe Syracuse will suffer its first loss. Hell…I’m not even sure the Orange will or should be favored.
2) Arizona: (23-1 SU, 14-9-0 ATS) - SELL
Arizona losing forward Brandon Ashley will hurt them on the defensive side and it will be noticeable on Friday when the Wildcats travel to Tempe to play the Sun Devils. The Devils are on the bubble and need this win desperately…That’s bad news for Sean Miller and company. I believe ASU wins outright.
3) Florida: (21-2 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) - SELL
Similar to Syracuse and Arizona, the Gators will have similar problems as they travel to Knoxville on Tuesday to play a Tennessee team that frantically needs a marquee win.
4) Wichita State: (25-0 SU, 16-5-1 ATS) - BUY
The Shockers did something I didn’t think they could do, which is remain undefeated after playing on the road against Indiana State and Northern Illinois last week. It’s very clear that Wichita State wants a spot in the Final Four again. I don’t see them losing, but they may need style points if they want a No. 1 seed, so look for the Shockers to make a statement with their victories.
5) San Diego State: (21-1 SU, 12-7 ATS) - HOLD
I’m hesitating on betting the Aztecs this week. They travel to Wyoming on Tuesday and if they’re not careful they could find themselves in a comeback situation, similar to the Boise State game of last week. Let’s see if they’ve learned from their mistakes and play hard for all 40 minutes.
6) Villanova (21-2 SU, 16-5 ATS) - SELL
I’m not sure what Nova’s AD was thinking, but the Wildcats do no play on campus (the Pavilion) for the remaining of the season. Talk about not playing to your advantage! Just on that idiotic decision alone I’m selling.
7) Kansas (18-6 SU, 12-11-1 ATS) - BUY
The Jayhawks should be able to handle business at home against TCU. Next week will be a different story. For now, I’m buying…but that will change, especially with their ATS record.
8) Duke (19-5 SU, 16-8- ATS) - BUY
Coach K has finally got his team moving in the right direction. Although they lost to Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, they’re improving and becoming the Duke we all know. I see more of the same this week against North Carolina and Maryland.
9) Michigan State (20-4 SU, 13-8-2 ATS) - HOLD
The Spartans have been up and down these last three weeks, especially against the spread. Now they are back at home playing the bottom part of the conference, Northwestern and Nebraska. Although I believe they will win both games, the spreads will be heavy and too high for comfort. I’m watching.
10) Cincinnati (22-3 SU, 10-9 ATS) – BUY
In my last stock report, I said the Bearcats would be lucky to beat SMU. And lucky they weren’t. They play Houston at home Saturday. It shouldn’t be a problem to win or cover, but next week will be a challenge as they get Louisville at home. We’ll buy now because it could be the last time we do this month.
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