Top 10 - Stock Watch
February 25, 2014
By Greg Smith
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Two weeks before conference tournaments begin and we have seen the Top 10 jockey positions plenty of times, especially at the top spot. With only a few weeks left before the NCAA Tournament, let’s see how many of the schools below can maintain their positions.
1) Florida: (25-2 SU, 11-11-1 ATS) - BUY
I think we can trust the Gators to win out the remainder of the season. They have lost two games, both on the road with a combined total of seven points. With road trips to Vanderbilt and South Carolina left on the schedule, Florida should roll into the SEC Tournament extremely confident.
2) Wichita State: (20-0 SU, 19-6-1 ATS) - HOLD
With an ATS record of 19-6-1, Vegas can’t seem to find a line high enough for the Shockers. Their last threat (if you call it that) is Bradley on the road, but the line is still double digits, giving an opportunity for a back door cover. I still believe holding on the Shockers until tournament time is the smart play.
3) Arizona: (25-2 SU, 16-10 ATS) - HOLD
The Wildcats aren’t out of the woods yet. Three of the four teams left on the schedule are considered “bubble teams.” However they have California and Stanford at home this week. Can Zona’ keep the intensity and energy up for these two important games?
4) Syracuse: (26-2 SU, 13-9-2 ATS) - SELL
The Orange has had a rough week and it’s not going to get any easier. After losing back-to-back games and nearly getting beat for the third time to Maryland, I believe their biggest challenge is yet to come…Virginia. This will be the third consecutive game on the road for Syracuse and it’s too much.
5) Kansas: (22-6 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) - SELL
The Jayhawks will have their hands full as they travel to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State this Saturday. The Cowboys desperately need this win. Kansas is 4-5 ATS on the road and I don’t see this record improving. I’m selling.
6) Duke: (22-6 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) - SELL
The Blue Devils finally get a chance to relax and play scrimmage ball against Virginia Tech this week. The problem for bettors is the line will be too high for comfort, so I have no choice but to hold on Duke. There will be plenty of opportunity to bet the Devils when they play the Tar Heels next week.
7) Louisville: (23-4 SU, 14-11 ATS) - HOLD
The Cardinals will have a tough matchup against Memphis on the road this weekend. However, in their last six games they have dominated opponents beating them by an average of 21 points. The Cardinals are hot, but this will be the Tigers most important game of the season.
8) Villanova: (24-3 SU, 17-8 ATS) - SELL
I’m not so much worried about Villanova playing Butler as I am Marquette, but the good news is they are both Philly. Getting crushed by Creighton for the second time, has me concerned that teams are figuring out how to play 'Nova, resulting in closer games the second time around.
9) Creighton: (23-4 SU, 16-10 ATS) - BUY
The Bluejays have shocked me on how well they have handled the transition to another conference. The difference in caliber of play between the Missouri Valley and Big East Conference are night and day. Creighton will win the Big East and Doug McDermott will get “Player of The Year” honors. Not a bad inaugural start.
10) Saint Louis: (25-2 SU, 9-15 ATS) – SELL
Although the Billikens have won plenty of games, they have a hard time covering spreads. Their last four games are 0-4 ATS. They get VCU on the road this week and Shaka Smart and the Rams will bring the “havoc” to make sure the trend continues.
10-5 L15 G-Plays, +2,786 TY
7-1 L8 G-Plays, +2,033 G-Plays TY
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 3-0 Sat., 14-5 L19
5-1 L6, 8-2 L10 Guarantees
4-1 Saturday, 10-2 L12 Guarantees
13-4 L17 Guaranteed Plays
18-10, +831 CBK Last 4 Days
14-5 L19 G-Plays, 15-6 L21 Totals
9-4 L13, 24-10 L34 Guarantees
21-10 L31 Totals, +3,172 Totals TY
8-3 L2 Saturdays, 10-4 L14 Guarantees