Inside the Stats
March 7, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
As we enter this weekend’s action, let’s take inside the stats at what’s happening on the College Hoops and NBA hardwood this season.
Note that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played through Tuesday, March 4 unless noted otherwise.
Last week we explored the best and worst college basketball teams spread records in their Last Home Games of the season.
This week we probe deeper and look at these teams and how they fare when they take to the regular season road in the game immediately after having bid the seniors farewell.
For openers, these teams come up flat when playing away off a loss in their final home game. Worse, the get beat up with regularity in this role when facing a host playing its Last Home Game that is also off a loss, as they are just 77-111-3 ATS in this role since 2000. From a team trends perspective, here are the very best and very worst performances by a team since 2000 when playing on the regular season road after ‘senior night’ in home finales:
Good: Iowa State 5-0, Mississippi 7-0 and Tennessee 5-0.
Bad: Marquette 0-5, Nebraska 1-10-1 and Purdue 0-9.
As the NBA nears the three-quarter pole, let’s take a look at the teams that have managed to pull off upsets with major alacrity this season.
The top three teams in the league, in terms of SU underdog wins, have been: Charlotte (19), Phoenix (18) and Washington (16).
The teams with the fewest SU underdog victories this campaign include: Miami (2), Golden State (3) and Indiana (3).
On the other side of the coin, teams that have laid the most eggs – been upset as a favorite – are: Golden State (16), Houston (13) and San Antonio (13).
Completing the study, these teams have the rug pulled out on them the fewest times as a favorite this season: Philadelphia (1), Milwaukee (3) and Utah (3).
Obviously the teams in both of the ‘fewest’ categories reside there for one simple matter – they are seldom in the role. It’s the teams that lead the brigade on both sides of the ‘most’ ledger that warrant a strong look.
Down And Dirty
Listed below are the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in Defensive Field Goal percentage and Rebound Margin. Look to 'play on' these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:
Defensive Field Goal Percentage
1. Eastern Michigan 36.9
2. SMU 37.2
3. Southern 37.8
4. North Carolina Central 38.1
5. Virginia 38.2
1. Quinnipiac +11.7
2. Kentucky +10.6
3. Iowa +9.3
4. Tennessee +9.1
5. Arizona +9.0
Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams:
1. Pacers 91.6
2. Bulls 92.3
3. Grizzlies 95.2
4. Raptors 97.1
5. Bobcats 97.3
1. Thunder +4.9
2. Bulls +4.3
3. Pacers +4.3
4. Rockets +3.8
5. Trailblazers +3.6
Stat Of The Week
Wichita State last won the MVC tournament in 1987, and is 1-18 SU in this tourney since 1991 versus No. 1-4 seeds.
14-1 L15, 25-3 Run, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6, 18-4 Run, 8-2 L10 G-Plays
3-0 Yesterday, 10-2 L12 G-Plays
5-2 G-Plays, 28-11 Picks, +6,443
17-7 L24 Picks, 5-1 L6 Totals
2-0 LN, 8-1 L9 Guarantees
6-1 L7, 24-10 Streak, 7-2 G-Plays
2-0 LN, 10-3 Picks, 17-7 G-Plays
15-5 L20 G-Plays, 32-16 L48 Picks
2-0 Y'day, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
10-3 L13 Guaranteed Plays
+6,020 Totals, +2,870 Overall TY
7-4 L3 Days, 21-9 L30 Totals
7-3 L10, 10-4 L14, 61-32 Streak
8-2 L10 G-Plays, 28-15 L43 Picks
22-11 L33 Picks, 13-5 L18 G-Plays
24-11 L35 Guaranteed Plays
4-1 G-Plays, +3,784 Totals TY
3-1 Monday, +2,200 This Year
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