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College Basketball

Wednesday’s Tip Sheet

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
16 minute read
**Tennessee at Ole Miss**

-- Tennessee (24-3 straight up, 13-12-1 against the spread) as a 4.5-point favorite for this Wednesday road assignment in Oxford. The total was 151.5 points as of late Tuesday afternoon. By early this morning, the number on the side remained at 4.5, but the total had dropped down to 149.5 points. The Rebels were +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).

-- Ole Miss (19-8 SU, 19-8 ATS) has won five of its past six games but is only 3-3 ATS during this span. The Rebels failed to cover the number in Saturday’s 72-71 win over Georgia as 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Breein Tyree led the way with 17 points on 3-of-6 shooting from 3-point range. Devontae Shuler added 16 points thanks to four treys, while Terence Davis finished with 13 points, four assists and three steals. The Rebels splashed the nets at a 12-of-28 clip (42.9%) from downtown.

-- Kermit Davis’s squad is 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS at home. This will be the Rebels’ third game as home underdogs. They are 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of such spots, beating Auburn 82-67 as four-point 'dogs and losing to Iowa St. 87-73 as 1.5-point puppies.

-- Tyree is third in the SEC in scoring with his 18.4 points-per-game average. The junior guard has drained 47.8 percent of his field-goal attempts, 40.0 percent of his 3-pointers and 83.1 percent of his free-throw attempts. Davis, a senior from nearby Southaven, averages 15.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.7 steals per games. Schuler (9.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is fourth in the SEC in steals (1.8 SPG), has an 83/47 assist-to-turnover ratio and has knocked down 38.1 percent of his 3-balls and 83.3 percent of his FTAs.

-- Ole Miss is ranked 12th in the nation in free-throw percentage, making 77.0 percent of its attempts from the charity stripe.

-- Ole Miss is ranked No. 43 at KenPom.com, compiling a 4-5 record against K-Pom Top-50 opponents and a 7-8 mark versus Top-100 foes. The Rebels have only three sub-Top-50 L’s at South Carolina (#83), at Alabama (#57) and at Butler (#52). Their best wins are at Auburn, at Mississippi State, at home vs. Auburn and vs. Baylor on a neutral court. In his latest edition of ‘Bracketology’ filed to ESPN.com on Tuesday morning, Joe Lunardi had Davis’s team as a ninth seed that would face Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament’s opening round. The Rebels are No. 38 in the NCAA’s new NET metrics.

-- Tennessee is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in eight road assignments.

-- Rick Barnes’s team took a school-record 19-game winning streak and a No. 1 national ranking into Rupp Arena two Saturdays ago, only to leave with an embarrassing 86-69 loss as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Volunteers responded last Tuesday by beating Vanderbilt 58-46, but they failed to cover the number as 17.5-point home ‘chalk.’

-- Tennessee went into Baton Rouge on Saturday as a short 1.5 or two-point favorite. However, when word leaked out less than 20 minutes before tip that LSU was going to be without star point guard Tremont Waters due to an illness, the number jumped up to four. UT took a 36-31 lead to halftime, but LSU got monster efforts from Ja’vonte Smart and Skylar Mays and rallied to force overtime. After the Tigers scored a tying bucket with about 7-8 seconds left in the extra session, UT pushed the ball up the floor and missed a 3-pointer. As LSU rebounded the miss, Vols’ junior power forward Grant Williams committed an ill-advised foul at least 70 feet from the basket with 0.6 seconds left. This allowed LSU to hit the game-winning FTs to go ahead by two. LSU head coach Will Wade pulled a knucklehead move, however, that allowed the Vols a chance to tie. When a team goes ahead by one point on a FT with less than two seconds remaining, a head coach should ALWAYS advise his FT shooter to miss the second FT on purpose (but make sure to hit the rim). In this scenario, Tennessee would’ve had to make an 85-foot heave as the clock would start the moment the UT player rebounded the FT miss. Wade completely fumbled the ball here so when LSU made the second FTA, the Vols were able to advance the ball up the court with a length-of-the-court pass without any time dripping off the clocks. As it turned out, Williams caught the ball on the far baseline and got up about a 14-footer that would’ve forced a second OT had it gone in. However, Williams was a bit off balance and knew he had to rush the shot with only 0.6 seconds remaining. This caused him to miss, got Wade off the hook and ignited a celebration at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center.

-- UT has now lost two of its past three games, leaving it one-half game back of both LSU and Kentucky at the top of the SEC standings. UK trailed Arkansas by 11 at halftime last night in Lexington, only to rally and win by four. LSU, playing without Waters for a second straight game, defeated Texas A&M in Baton Rouge.

-- In the loss at LSU, senior Admiral Schofield scored 27 points and grabbed nine rebounds. Williams finished with 18 points, nine boards and three assists, but he coughed up five turnovers and committed the costly foul that led to LSU’s game-winning FTs. Jordan Bone buried 3-of-5 launches from long distance in a 13-point effort and had three steals. Kyle Alexander contributed seven points, six rebounds, three blocked shots and one steal.

-- Tennessee is No. 9 at K-Pom and No. 7 in the NET rankings. The Vols owns a 4-3 record against K-Pom Top-50 opponents and are 12-3 versus the Top 100. Their other loss came back on Nov. 23 to Kansas in overtime at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. UT’s best wins are neutral-court scalps of Louisville and Gonzaga, in addition to a season sweep of Florida.

-- Williams leads the SEC in scoring with his 19.0 PPG average and is fifth in rebounding (7.6 RPG). He also averages 3.3 assists, 1.4 blocked shots and 1.1 steals per game. Williams, a junior out of Charlotte, is shooting at career-best clips of 56.9 percent from the field and 82.9 percent from the charity stripe. Schofield is fourth in the SEC in scoring (16.9 PPG) and averages 6.4 RPG. The senior swingman is a versatile defender quick enough to check shooting guards and physical enough to defend bigger players on the interior. Schofield has hit 48.1 percent of his FGAs and 39.5 percent of his treys. Bone, a junior guard out of Nashville, leads the SEC in assists (6.3 APG), has a 169/57 assist-to-turnover ratio, averages 13.2 PPG and makes 82.5 percent of his FTAs. Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden are also averaging in double figures at 11.0 and 10.6 PPG, respectively. Senior center Kyle Alexander (8.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) leads UT in FG percentage (64.0%) and blocked shots (1.9 BPG).

-- The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run for the Rebels to improve to 16-11 overall and 8-6 in their home games.

-- The ‘over’ is 15-11 overall and a perfect 8-0 in UT’s road contests.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

**Marquette at Villanova**

-- As of early this morning, most books were listing Villanova (20-8 SU, 17-11 ATS) as a five-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 142.5. The Golden Eagles were +180 to win outright (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Marquette (23-4 SU, 18-9 ATS) has its best team since Dwyane Wade and Tom Crean led the school to the Final Four in 2003. The Golden Eagles are atop of the Big East standings with a 13-3 record in league play, while Jay Wright’s club is two games back with an 11-4 conference ledger.

-- Steve Wojciechowski, the former Duke player and assistant who collected loose balls and floor burns for a living during his playing days, took Marquette to just one NCAA appearance and one NIT bid (that resulted in a trip to the quarterfinals last season) in his first four years on the job. Some pundits felt that pressure was mounting on the head coach coming into this season. Well, this space can assure you that ‘Woj’ is closer to fielding lucrative offers from other programs rather than being on the hot seat in Milwaukee these days.

-- Since Jan. 6, Marquette has won 12 of its 13 games while cashing tickets at a 10-3 ATS clip. The Golden Eagles have won four consecutive games while going 3-1 ATS since dropping a 70-69 decision to St. John’s as 6.5-point home ‘chalk.’ During its four-game winning streak, Marquette has won its last three games by margins of 19, 10 and 18 points. Woj’s team went on the road Saturday to capture a 76-58 win at Providence as a 2.5-point favorite. The Golden Eagles won convincingly even though star junior guard Markus Howard went 2-of-12 on his FGAs and scored just 14 points. Sam Hauser had a double-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots on 4-of-6 marksmanship from 3-point territory. Safar Anim finished with 18 points and four assists compared to only one turnover, as he made 8-of-12 FGAs. Joey Hauser chipped in 15 points and seven boards, while Ed Morrow had 11 points and five boards. The Golden Eagles hit 54.9 percent of their FGAs and were 10-of-21 from downtown (47.6%).

-- Marquette is 2-3 both SU and ATS in five games as an underdog this season.

-- Howard is fifth in the nation in scoring with his 25.3 PPG average. He paces the Golden Eagles in assists (4.0 APG) and steals (1.1 SPG), and he’s sixth in the country in FT percentage (91.5%). Sam Hauser is averaging 15.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, and he has a 63/35 assists-to-turnover ratio. The junior forward has drained 40.6 percent of his 3-pointers and 91.4 percent of his FTAs. Joey Hauser, the redshirt freshman and younger brother of Sam, is averaging 10.0 points and 5.4 RPG while hitting 3-balls at a 45.2 percent rate.

-- Marquette is ranked No. 18 in the NET metrics and No. 24 at K-Pom. The Golden Eagles are 5-2 against K-Pom Top-50 foes and 14-4 versus Top-100 opponents. They’ve lost at Indiana (#48), vs. Kansas (#16) in Brooklyn and were swept by St. John’s (#56). Marquette’s best wins are a neutral-court triumph over Louisville (77-74 in OT) and home victories over Kansas St., Wisconsin, Buffalo and Villanova. The lack of a marquee road win, one that can be had tonight in Philadelphia, is clearly what’s dragging Marquette’s rankings down. Nevertheless, in Lunardi’s latest at ESPN.com, the Golden Eagles are pegged as a No. 3 seed in the East Region.

-- Marquette owns a 6-2 record both SU and ATS in eight road contests.

-- Villanova has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS and is 1-4 SU in its last five contests. The Wildcats blew a big lead at MSG in NYC two Sundays ago and lost a 71-65 decision to St. John’s. Since then, they’ve lost 85-73 at Georgetown and went down Sunday at Xavier by a 66-54 count as 5.5-point road favorites. In the loss to the Musketeers, two-time national champ Eric Paschall had 17 points, two steals, two blocked shots and two assists. Phil Booth finished with 14 points, six rebounds and four assists, but he had three turnovers and was good on just 6-of-18 FGAs. Saddiq Bey finished with 10 points and eight boards. The Wilcats were a miserable 33.9 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from beyond the arc.

-- Villanova is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS at home.

-- Wright’s team is No. 29 at K-Pom and No. 28 in the NET metrics. ‘Nova is 1-3 against K-Pom Top-50 opponents and 12-7 versus K-Pom Top-100 foes. The Wildcats have a bad loss at Pennsylvania (#138) and recent L’s at Xavier and at Georgetown certainly aren’t helping their cause. Their best win – by far – is a neutral-court victory over FSU.

-- Booth is averaging team-bests in scoring (18.4 PPG) and assists (3.9 APG). Paschall is averaging 17.2 points and 6.1 RPG, while Collin Gillespie averages 11.2 PPG, has a team-high 33 steals and an 81/39 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- When these teams met in Milwaukee on Feb. 9, Marquette captured a 66-65 win but ‘Nova covered the number as a 1.5-point road underdog. The 131 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 145.5-point total. Howard dropped 38 points on the Wildcats by making 13-of-24 FGAs, 5-of-11 greys and 7-of-7 FTAs. Anim scored 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting from the field. Booth and Paschall had 19 and 17 points, respectively, in the losing effort.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 9-4-2 run for Marquette. The ‘under’ is 14-10-2 overall for the Golden Eagles, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 4-3-1 in their eight road assignments.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-8-2 overall for the Wildcats, 9-2-1 in their home games.

-- Fox Sports 1 will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- North Carolina trailed by as many as eight points in the first half and had to go on a 7-2 run to trim the deficit to three at halftime vs. Syracuse last night. However, the Tar Heels outscored the Orange 50-39 in the second half to pull away for a 93-85 win as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ The ‘Cuse covered the spread as a double-digit underdog, while the 178 combined points soared ‘over’ the 147.5-point total. Freshman point guard Coby White was the catalyst for UNC with 34 points, four rebounds, three assists and two steals. White drained 9-of-14 FGAs, 6-of-11 attempts from long distance and 10-of-10 FTAs. Cameron Johnson added 16 points and seven rebounds. Tyus Battle scored 29 points, grabbed five rebounds and handed out five assists for the Orange in defeat.

-- Florida takes a four-game winning streak into Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville tonight to face Vanderbilt, which remains winless in SEC play. As of early this morning, the Gators were favored by 4.5 points with the total at 128. The Commodores were +175 on the money line. UF has lost six of eight games against Vandy during Mike White’s four-year tenure. The Gators, who are an atrocious 1-10 ATS in the past 11 games of this rivalry, have lost four in a row at Vandy and are 17-48 all-time at the historic venue with each team’s benches “in the end zones.” The underdog has covered the number in 11 consecutive UF-Vandy meetings. The ‘Dores are in a 9-23 ATS slump in their last 32 home games. Meanwhile, despite the four-game winning streak, UF has limped to a 2-8 spread record in past 10 outings. This is a 9:00 p.m. Eastern tip on the SEC Network.

-- Auburn is an eight-point favorite tonight at Georgia for a 9:00 p.m. Eastern tip on ESPNU. The Bulldogs have lost eight games in a row, but they’ve covered the spread in three straight contests that were losses by six combined points. Bruce Pearl’s team is an anemic 2-6 both SU and ATS in eight road contests. UGA is 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS at home inside of Stegeman Coliseum.

-- Penn State is a 1.5-point home underdog for tonight’s 6:30 p.m. Eastern tip vs. Maryland on the Big Ten Network. The Nittany Lions have won four of their past six games and are 5-0-1 ATS during this stretch. They’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in five consecutive contests. The Terrapins are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in 10 road games this season.

-- Georgia Tech is an 18.5-point underdog tonight at Virginia for a 7:00 p.m. Eastern tip on ESPN2. The Yellow Jackets have lost eight of 10 road games, but they’re 7-3 ATS in those contests. UVA is 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS at home. The total is 119 points. Josh Pastner’s club has seen the ‘under’ go 18-10 overall and 7-3 in its road assignments. Ga. Tech is 4-1 ATS in five games as a double-digit underdog and 7-2 ATS when catching eight points or more.

-- With its recent play and Tennessee’s two losses in three games, most bracket gurus have moved Kentucky up to a No. 1 seed. However, UK’s status on that one line was in serious doubt for much of last night’s home game vs. Arkansas, which came to Rupp Arena on a five-game losing streak with its head coach Mike Anderson feeling the heat back home in Fayetteville. But the Razorbacks led by 11 at intermission and by 15 with less than 18 minutes remaining. The Wildcats finally pulled even at 51-51 at the under-8 TV timeout and held on for a 70-66 victory. Big Blue Nation can thank freshman Tyler Herro for saving the day, as he went bonkers on the Hogs. Herro buried 9-of-10 FGAs, 5-of-6 greys and 6-of-6 FTAs in a 29-point effort that also included four rebounds, two steals and three assists compared to just one turnover. Nick Richards produced seven points, 15 rebounds and three blocked shots for the ‘Cats, who saw the ‘under’ improve to 7-1 in their last eight games.

Follow Brian Edwards' sports gambling opinions on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

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