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Despite close proximity for most of the schools in the conference the Big Ten historically holds substantial home court advantages and this season has been no different. Every team in the conference has a winning straight up record at home this season and nine of the eleven teams have at least ten home wins this season. Only the bottom three teams in the conference feature home winning percentages of less than 80 percent, so there better be a good reason to go against a Big Ten team at home. The top three teams, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Indiana have combined to go 41-0 at home this season and the top eight teams are 104-9 S/U at home this season.
The Big Ten Conference features two of the top four teams in the nation and is always a threat to make deep runs into the NCAA tournament despite a disappointing record in the Big Dance last season. This year Wisconsin and Ohio State appear to be significantly ahead of the pack and the conference champion will likely earn a #1 seed with the runner-up likely ending up with at least a #2 seed. The Big Ten features eight teams with legitimate shots to make the NCAA tournament but at this point in the season only the top three appear to be locks to get in while five teams have significant work to do. We'll examine the remaining schedules for the top eight Big Ten teams and offer a few critical games that could make the difference for the post-season as well as look at some upcoming against the spread situations.
Wisconsin: With just two losses on the season and a strong repertoire of wins Wisconsin appears destined for a top two seed barring a complete meltdown. The biggest game of the season is certainly the trip to Ohio State on February 25th after Wisconsin defeated Ohio State at home in early January. Wisconsin plays Michigan State in the two games surrounding the Ohio State game which makes for a very difficult finish though Wisconsin has had great success against the Spartans under Coach Ryan. Wisconsin is just 4-5 ATS in the Big Ten this season and has had some flat starts and has also struggled to put away teams, most recently allowing Northwestern to sneak back into the game last Saturday.
PLAY AGAINST: March 3, vs. Michigan State: Wisconsin plays at MSU and at Ohio State in the two games prior to this home game and it will be difficult to face the quick turnaround re-match especially if Wisconsin beats MSU in the first meeting or wins at Ohio State. The Big Ten title race could be sealed by this point and this game may not have great significance in the standings which could lead to a flat effort or an over-valued home team.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes have climbed past the Badgers in the national ranking but still sit behind Wisconsin in the standings having lost in Madison this season. Redemption will be available to OSU at the end of the month. The Buckeyes have become the most public team in the conference with good reason as OSU is 6-3 ATS in conference games and is 4-1 ATS on the road in the conference with the ability to cover some big numbers and impressively surviving a back-to-back road trip at Purdue and Michigan State. The remaining schedule sets up well for the Buckeye culminating with the big game against Wisconsin for the conference title as Ohio State does not have to visit Iowa or Indiana this season, two historically tough venues. Ohio State may become over-valued in upcoming home games and will be heavy favorites at Penn State and at Minnesota so the ATS outlook is not as promising.
PLAY AGAINST: March 3, at Michigan: This could be a game the bubble-bound Wolverines may need to win and it will be tough to turnaround after the big Wisconsin game no matter the result. The Buckeyes have a longer than usual lay-off before this game which could be a disadvantage if the team is playing well in the stretch run.
Indiana: The huge win over Wisconsin will likely get the Hoosiers into the NCAA tournament even if they falter down the stretch as three more wins will clinch a winning conference record. Losing at Iowa in a let-down spot is very forgivable and the Hoosiers have home games against Minnesota and Penn State remaining so that looks very likely. Indiana faces two sets of back-to-back road games which could be a significant challenge and we could see the Hoosiers drop in the standings. The Purdue game next week is a huge rivalry game that will make for a difficult follow up playing at Michigan three days later. The Northwestern game also provides an opportunity for a let-down in the second-half of the two game road-set. Look for an up-and-down finish from the Hoosiers and a likely fall out of the top 25 despite some nice wins.
PLAY AGAINST: February 17, at Michigan: The Wolverines are very tough at home and this game follows a road game at Purdue which is an important in-state rivalry. Should the Hoosiers beat Illinois and Purdue in the next two games they could be favored here and laying points on the road in the Big Ten is very dangerous.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes do not have the size and depth of recent years and may be bound for another early exit should they make the tournament but with a great home-court edge and one of the top scorers in the conference it will be hard to count Iowa out. Iowa is just 5-4 S/U in the conference but the Hawkeyes have avoided the bad loss in the conference that some of the other bubble Big Ten teams have on the resume and the wins over Michigan and Michigan State could help if the teams finish close together. If Iowa wins the remaining three home games they should be in good shape for the post-season and with road games at Minnesota and at Penn State an even better finish could be in store. A win at Wisconsin or Michigan State would be very tough to come by but winning at home against Purdue and Illinois would give the Hawkeyes a big edge over the rest of the middle-of-the-pack teams in the conference.
PLAY AGAINST: February 27, at Penn State: Penn State has struggled in Big Ten play but still maintains a solid home record and this game comes in a sandwich spot between two big home games. If Iowa would knock off Purdue in the game prior to this match-up they will likely be sitting at 8-6 in the conference and in good shape in the eyes of the selection committee and this game could be overlooked with a home match-up with Illinois next.
Illinois: After several years at our near the top of the conference Illinois has fallen back this season and Illini bettors have felt the pain with just a 5-15-1 ATS record on the season. The Illini do not own any impressive non-conference wins that will help its cause and will need to finish strong in the Big Ten to be considered for the Tournament. Illinois once held one of the toughest home-courts in the nation but both Wisconsin and Ohio State won at Illinois but fortunately those were the lone meetings against the top two teams in the conference. Wins over Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan State at home look nice but Minnesota is the only road win of the season for Illinois. At 5-5 S/U in conference play Illinois needs to win at least one more road game to have a shot as the schedule features just two remaining home games. If Illinois can win at Penn State and at Northwestern while avoiding a home upset they should be in good shape but winning at Indiana or at Iowa would likely seal the deal.
PLAY AGAINST: February 10, at Indiana: Illinois beat Indiana at home in an ugly game and this will be a second consecutive road game for the Illini. Indiana has not lost at home all season and will have an entire week to prepare for this revenge game as the Hoosiers do not have a game during the week.
Michigan: The Wolverines have done it again. Year after year Michigan looks like a strong team on paper and gets off to a strong non-conference start but can not play consistently enough in the Big Ten. Michigan has lost three straight games and although losses at Indiana and Wisconsin are explainable the loss to Iowa at home is the kind of loss that could keep Michigan out of the tournament again. At just 4-4 in conference play and the home win over Illinois featured as the best win on the resume Michigan has a lot of work to do. Michigan's remaining schedule is not easy but there are opportunities for big wins with home games against Indiana, Michigan State, and Ohio State. If Michigan wins its remaining home games it will be very tough to keep them out of the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately the Wolverines have a very difficult road schedule ahead and winning at Minnesota might be the only chance to steal a road victory which means Michigan may want to win a few Big Ten Tournament games as well to be safe.
PLAY AGAINST: February 21, at Illinois: The preceding game at home against Indiana is an absolute must-win game for Michigan who blew a big lead at home against Indiana last season in a game that sealed its post-season fate. If Michigan wins that game they will have a tough time winning at Illinois in a big revenge game for the Illini. If Michigan loses to Indiana they know they are NIT-bound again and motivation may be lacking the rest of the way.
Michigan State: The Spartans are a perennial NCAA tournament team but they may not get another chance to redeem themselves from the first round exit last season. Last weekend's Ohio State game at home was the Spartans big chance to maintain the perfect home record and score a marquee win but it didn't happen. The Spartans were dealt one of the toughest conference schedules playing Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois twice the remaining seven games are all against teams in the top eight in the conference. Michigan State may need to upset Wisconsin to have a reasonable shot although the Spartans will likely get some favoritism from the committee given their track record. Wins at home against Michigan, Iowa, and Indiana are a must and a win at Purdue or Michigan would certainly help the cause.
PLAY AGAINST: February 17, vs. Iowa: This Spartans are very tough at home but will lay a big number against an Iowa team that has proven capable of an upset on the road and will be competing for post-season spot as well. Michigan State plays state-rival Michigan at home prior to this game and faces Wisconsin at home next so this will be the let-down spot as Coach Izzo has really struggled against Wisconsin recently and will make that game a priority.
Purdue: The opening conference loss at Minnesota could burn the Boilers as with just four conference wins through nine games it will be an uphill battle the rest of the way. Purdue has a few nice non-conference wins and winning at Penn State snapped a long road losing streak but Purdue must finish strong. Purdue's home record is not cited as often as some of the other top teams in the conference but Purdue has lost just once at home this season and beat Illinois and Michigan by double-digits. Home games with Indiana and Michigan State upcoming will be critical but the Boilers will have the opportunity to finish with some momentum playing the last three games with a road game at Northwestern and then facing home games against Minnesota and Northwestern.
PLAY AGAINST: February 21, at Iowa: Purdue rarely wins away from home and Iowa rarely loses at home. Since these teams are close in the standings and Purdue could be coming off a big win and Iowa will likely be coming off a loss the line will be kept in check and there could be value with the home Hawkeyes.
