Consensus Final Four Picks
March 23, 2007 By Chris David VegasInsider.com
The Experts Speak!
It’s that time of the year again when everybody and anybody takes part in a NCAA Tournament pool, hoping to make some extra scratch along the way and boost their ego as a so-called college basketball expert.
As always, VegasInsider.com and its stable of expert handicappers are here to help you fill in your brackets.
Without further adieu, let’s break it down.
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If you’re looking for Cinderella Stories and hopes of finding this year’s George Mason, then this might not be the piece that you were hoping to read. Last year, none of the number one seeds made it to the Final Four, which was the first instance since 1980. The odds of that happening again are slim and none, and slim is sitting at home with Syracuse and Drexel.
We asked 32 VegasInsider.com handicappers to send in four winners of each regional bracket plus who they believe will be the national champion.
Almost one-third (10) of our 'cappers believe that Florida will be repeating as national champions and it’s hard to argue considering its effort in the SEC Championship. If you go back to last year, the Gators are on a 12-0 straight up and 9-2-1 against the spread run in postseason play, which includes 10 straight covers.
VI Expert Brian Edwards explained, “When Florida clinched the SEC regular-season title, it lost its focus for a couple of weeks, losing three of its next four games. But the Gators have their focus back now, winning four straight both SU and ATS. They won their three SEC Tournament games by an average of 19.5 points per game, and never trailed at any point.“
“I don't see anybody in the Midwest region giving them any problems. I think they'll get a rematch with Kansas -- which beat them by a bucket in OT in Las Vegas back in November -- in the semifinals. That'll probably be the best game of the Tournament. I know its 'chalky,' but I like the Gators to beat Georgetown in the finals."
While Brian is considered an SEC guru, he’s also a Florida alumnus. Another VI Expert and Florida grad, Jason Johnson, offered his opinion as well, “If Florida plays with the emotion that propelled them through the tournament last season, there isn't a team that can beat them."
Strong comments but right now oddsmakers agree with the above duo. Sportsbook.com has listed Florida as a 4/1 favorite (Bet $100 to win $400) to win the national championship and an overwhelming 4/5 (Bet $50 to win $40) choice to win the Midwest Regional.
Of the 30 handicappers, only five out of 25 didn’t believe Florida would return to the Final Four, as Oregon (2), Wisconsin (2) and Maryland (1) earned confidence amongst others.
It should be noted that the NCAA Tournament hasn’t had a repeat winner since Duke cut down the nets in 1991 and 1992, becoming the first school to accomplish that feat since UCLA and legendary coach John Wooden won their seventh straight championship in 1973.
After Florida, UCLA (6), Kansas (5) and Georgetown (4) were the most popular picks amongst our experts to cut down the nets in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome on Apr. 2.
The Jayhawks are getting the second most action at Sportsbook.com right now, while the Bruins (10/1) and Hoyas (10/1) are carrying attractive prices.
Surprisingly, Georgetown has received more attention by VI’s experts as a No. 2 seed than No. 1 North Carolina did in the East Regional.
A lot of VI Experts are starting to believe in Acie Law and Texas A&M in the South Regional. (AP Images)
“After watching this team in person over the weekend, the Hoyas are going to be a tough team to eliminate. The road isn’t easy but they match up well with every potential opponent. Georgetown will likely face North Carolina or Texas in the regional final and even then it has strong edges down low. They come in with great momentum with wins in 15 of 16 and a Big East title,“ says VI Expert Matt Fargo.
Another team that hasn’t garnered enough attention despite its impressive ledger is Ohio State. The Buckeyes have 11 votes to win the South Regional, while Texas A&M both received 12. Other teams receiving votes in the South are Memphis (7) and Louisville (2) round out this portion of the bracket.
VI Expert Scott Rickenbach believes in the Aggies, “Texas A&M has a tenacious defense, solid coaching, and superstar Acie Law, who will lead this team through the South. Playing in San Antonio (loaded with Aggie grads) will be a huge edge for A&M as they take their basketball program to new heights!”
“Texas A&M will fluster a lot of opponents with its defense and get enough solid scoring from Law and company to get the job done. Plus, Antanas Kavaliauskas and Joseph Jones give the Aggies the necessary size inside, which is key for a serious tournament run.”
Keep in mind that this table is just a tool for your handicapping needs and whether you agree to disagree with our experts, it should be known that our stable of handicappers have posted a regular season profit of $5,105 based on one-unit ($100) plays according to our documented records. When you factor in 30-plus handicappers, it goes without saying that these people earn their title as professionals.
