|
The Big 12 is back
January 31, 2008
By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Joe Nelson is on a 6-3 run in college hoops, so don't miss out on his weekly winners!
T he big upset this week with Kansas State upsetting Kansas brings some attention to the Big 12 conference. Although the Big 12 has not sent a representative to the final four in the past three seasons some of the best basketball in the nation is happening in the conference this season. After having five final four teams between 2002 and 2004, the recent drought of tournament success could halt this season with several teams looking capable of a deep post-season run.
The Pac-10 rates as the #1 conference in the Sagarin ratings and the ACC still reigns in the RPI ratings but a strong argument can be made for the Big 12 as the top basketball conference in the nation so far this season. The Big 12 currently features six teams in the top 32 of the RPI ratings and six in the top 33 of the Sagarin ratings. No other conference has such a concentration towards the top of the rankings and the Big 12 really only has one weak bottom-feeder team that has not been highly competitive (Colorado). Seven teams in the conference have six or fewer losses but obviously that will change with the competitive balance in the league.
Kansas State currently sits on top of the standings at 5-0 coming off the upset of Kansas and the Wildcats are a big part of the revitalization of the conference. Kansas State fell just short of the NCAA tournament last season but after battling through a very tough non-conference schedule the Wildcats are not only close to locking up a bid to make the tournament, they can be a serious threat with a two incredibly talented freshman forwards. Kansas State closes with four of the last six conference games on the road so finishing on top of the standings will be difficult however.
The other surprise team in the Big 12 is Baylor, and the Bears are one of the great turnaround stories in the nation after the awful situation with the basketball team just a few years ago. Baylor has just three losses on the season and non-conference wins over Notre Dame, Winthrop, Wichita State, and South Carolina add up to a solid resume. The Bears are yet to play the top three teams in the Big 12 yet but things are looking promising considering that the Bears own a 6-0 record on the road this season.
Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma all remain competitive teams that appear worthy of NCAA tournaments bids. The teams that will be interesting to watch are the teams in the middle and bottom of the conference as Iowa State, Missouri, Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State are all capable of beating some of the top teams in the conference. Oklahoma State is 1-5 in conference play but the Cowboys have lost the last three games by a combined total of eight points against upper echelon teams.
Missouri already defeated Texas this season and gave Kansas one of its toughest games of the season but the recent injuries and suspensions likely doom the season for the Tigers. Iowa State and Nebraska both own very tough home courts and there will be opportunities for upsets down the stretch although the early season results likely eliminate them from NCAA tournament contention. All in all, the Big 12 is a very solid conference from top to bottom.
A look at the non-conference wins for Big 12 teams also provides reason to believe that the Big 12 will be making some noise in the post-season this year. Collectively the Big 12 has wins over many of the top Pac-10 teams as well as several other prominent national teams. Five of the top 20 RPI teams all suffered losses to Big 12 teams in non-conference play and a few others escaped with very narrow wins.
Despite the high RPI rating and the national perception as the supreme basketball conference, the ACC does not appear to be very strong this season outside of Duke and North Carolina. No other teams rank in the top 30 of the Sagarin or RPI ratings and every other ACC team has at least five losses.
The Big East has excellent depth but having 16 teams in the conference obviously contributes to that. Georgetown is the only team that has less than four losses on the season and no other team has really risen to an elite level nationally with teams like Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Marquette, and West Virginia showing inconsistency with a few ugly losses.
The Pac-10 can make a stronger case with two elite teams in UCLA and Washington State and several other highly competitive teams but the Big 12 won nine games against the Pac-10 in non-conference play, giving losses to every team in the conference except for Stanford and Washington State.
After disappointing finishes in the NCAA tournament from highly touted teams Kansas, Texas A&M, and Texas last year this could be the break through year for the Big 12. Although Kansas would likely garner a #1 seed at this point in the season it may be tough for the Big 12 to earn high placements because the conference season will likely create a few losses for each team given how deep the league is and how tough several home courts are in the Big 12. Look for big wins in the tournament from this conference and exciting finishes the rest of the way through the regular season and conference tournament.
|