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College Hoops is King
February 7, 2008
By Scott Rickenbach VegasInsider.com
February means March Madness is right around the corner. Of course, now is the perfect time to discuss some tips on basketball handicapping. That's because hoops wagering most likely has the greatest impact of all on a sports bettors' bankroll. The most popular sport for wagering is football. However, consider that football only runs for about six months and that includes the preseason. Many sports bettors don't even wager on preseason games, and that cuts the overall length of the football season to just five months. Of those five months, only four truly make up the "full regular season" football.
Now turn your attention to hoops. Basketball is very popular among sports bettors, but yet generally considered "second fiddle" to football. The NBA season generally tips off around November 1st and it is getting to the point where the NBA Finals are not wrapped up until late June. That means basketball is a sport that lasts almost eight months and includes many opportunities to make money with college and NBA action on a nightly basis. The fact that football's deep cards are concentrated on weekends while, deep hoops cards occur almost nightly is another key reason why you never want to underestimate the impact of basketball wagering on your sports betting bankroll. Now let's analyze some key factors in hoops handicapping:
1) Road Teams - So many people overemphasize the importance of home court. Keep in mind the oddsmaker knows this and often overvalues the home team as a result. Most sports bettors are looking for home teams and as a result they miss out on great value on road teams. A situation to always look for is a strong or surging road team playing a weak, or struggling home team. You will usually have to lay only a small number in a match-up like this because the better team is on the road. This provides great line value for you as you get the better team at a small price.
2) Scheduling Situations - A key factor in analyzing basketball games in both college and the NBA is the scheduling situation. For instance, there are times when an NBA team is playing their fourth game in five nights and that has to be considered in handicapping a game. In college hoops you might have a solid team playing a weak team, but if the solid team has Duke on deck they are in a look-ahead situation and might be in a prime situation for getting upset by the weak team. Look-ahead situations, fatigue, letdown spots, etc. all have to be considered before you lay your money down on a match-up in hoops.
3) Injuries/Suspensions - In baseball, you have nine men on the field and in football you have eleven. Of course in basketball there are only five men on the court for each team and that means injuries and suspensions have a bigger impact in hoops than in any other sport! Missing a key player or two, even if they are bench players or role players, can have a huge impact on a basketball team. However, keep in mind that this does not mean you can automatically just play against teams that are missing players. The oddsmaker always adjusts for injuries like this. The real key here is who are the replacements? Does the team have a deep bench? Does the team have a solid player who has been sitting on the pine waiting for his key opportunity? If so, a situation like this can actually give you a great opportunity to play on the team that is the one with the injury or suspension. You will also get great value as a result of the line adjustment. All of that must be factored in as you "pick your spots".
Above we have taken a look at just a few of the keys when it comes to basketball handicapping. Certainly this is not an all-inclusive list, but you can "bet" that keeping this list on hand throughout the basketball season will be a helpful reminder as you strive to build your bankroll throughout the lengthy hoops season. Always keep in mind that there are more wagering opportunities in basketball than in any of the four major sports. That said, be sure that you never underestimate the importance of putting in time and effort when handicapping hoops. It is likely to pay off big for you in the long run! As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach.
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