There is a great deal of attention on ACC this week with the big showdown between North Carolina and Duke, but finding quality teams in the traditional basketball power conference is difficult after the top two this season.

Every team past the top two traditional powers has at least three conference losses and five overall losses. Some separation is likely to occur in the next few weeks but the middle of the conference lacks standout teams. It will be difficult to justify giving bids to teams that post marginal records just because of the past reputation of the conference.

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In ESPN’s Bracketology predictions only three ACC squads are slated to make the NCAA tournament as of the most recent update. Only Clemson would join North Carolina and Duke, although the top two are currently slated to be #1 seeds. Virginia Tech and Maryland are listed as bubble teams among the final four cut from the bracket, but this is a dramatic change from recent years should those predictions hold up. The ACC has received at least four NCAA tournament bids every year since 2000 and last year the conference earned an ACC record seven bids. The large number of bids did not translate into deep runs however as only North Carolina was able to win more than one game, and the #1 seeded Tar Heels lost in the regional finals.

Perhaps there is valid cause for the decline of the ACC. The addition of Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech to the conference was intended to be a boon for football, but it may have hurt the overall level of play in basketball. Since the realignment to twelve teams the ACC has had zero final four teams as no ACC team has made it past the elite eight in the past two NCAA tournaments (The conference expanded to eleven teams for the 2004-05 season but Boston College did not join as the twelfth team until the 2005-06 season). From 1997 to 2002 the ACC had at least one final four representative every season and the conference won three national championships in a five year span from 2001 to 2005. This season Duke and North Carolina appear to be legitimate contenders but both schools have been upset prone as top seeds in recent years.

According to the Sagarin ratings the ACC currently ranks as the #4 conference in the nation, despite having two teams that currently rank towards the top of the national rankings. According to the Sagarin ratings, Duke is the #1 team and North Carolina is the #4 team but there is big gap before Clemson enters at #29. Miami, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Florida State are all bunched together between #50 and #68. The Pac-10, Big 12, and Big East all rated higher than the ACC in the conference rankings, and all three of those conferences are likely to get more NCAA tournament bids this season.

In recent years it has generally been assumed that the ACC is the top conference in the nation and the annual nationally televised rout of the Big Ten early in the season certainly helps to validate that perception. The ACC has gone 8-3 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge each of the past two seasons but an argument can certainly be made that the match-ups do not always line up fairly and the TV schedule often dictates more favorable situations for the top ACC teams. For example, Duke has played at home three of the past four seasons and taken on teams that did not project as elite teams in the Big Ten. Not surprisingly Duke is 9-0 all-time in challenge games but the Devils conveniently seem to play the elite teams a year or two after the top players graduate or leave school. The ACC generally has much greater depth than most conferences in the middle and bottom of the pack, and that is a big reason for the success in the challenge format and in the non-conference schedule.

This year the depth of the ACC may prevent the conference from getting the number of NCAA tournament bids that is normally expected. Duke and North Carolina are clearly going to be NCAA tournament teams and probably very high seeds. Duke has a fairly favorable finish to the conference season and could realistically go 16-0 in the conference if they beat North Carolina at home and avoid upsets along the way. North Carolina is just 6-2 in ACC play but none of the other teams in the conference has been consistent enough to challenge for the #2 spot. The remaining teams have a lot left to work out.

Maryland: The Terrapins were expected to be a legitimate threat in the conference but the non-conference season delivered brutal results with Maryland losing to Missouri, Ohio, Virginia Commonwealth, and American. Maryland also lost to UCLA which helps the strength of schedule but Maryland has amazingly lost seven home games already this season. Maryland is picking up steam and has gone 3-1 on the road in the ACC but some of the early losses may be hard to ignore if Maryland finishes with a similar resume to other teams. The big trump card for Maryland is the win over North Carolina, which could be a ticket to the dance if it remains one of the few teams to knock off the Tar Heels.

Clemson: The Tigers started the season 10-0 through a modest non-conference schedule but early season wins over Mississippi State and Purdue are looking much stronger at this point in the season. Clemson also beat major conference foes South Carolina, DePaul, and Alabama which will help keep the Tigers in the post-season conversation. Unfortunately a strong finish will be hard to come by and momentum might leave the Tigers on the wrong side of the bubble. Clemson plays six of the remaining nine games on the road and the Tigers are yet to win an ACC game away from home.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies have five ACC wins but the remaining schedule features tough road games at North Carolina, Clemson, and Maryland. Virginia Tech has some questionable losses on the season losing to Butler, Penn State, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, and Richmond. None of those are horribly bad season-killing losses on their own, but there are absolutely no quality non-conference wins to help balance things out. Virginia Tech will need a very strong finish to have a chance at the NCAA tournament and winning in Chapel Hill might be necessary.

N.C. State: The Wolfpack lost a couple of questionable early season games to New Orleans and East Carolina but State owns a few solid wins over Big East teams beating Villanova, Seton Hall, and Cincinnati. At 15-7 N.C. State will likely have a better overall record than the many of the teams fighting for the same spots. The schedule is very challenging down the stretch but that also means there are opportunities. N.C. State hosts both Duke and North Carolina in the coming weeks and an upset win could be a bid-clincher if the Wolfpack finish up in decent shape in the standings.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are barely over .500 but they own three road wins in conference play. Georgia Tech has won four of the last five games and the wins need to keep coming to keep alive any shot at the NCAA tournament. A big opportunity against a hot Connecticut squad would qualify as the marquee win that The Jackets might need. If Georgia Tech can continue to win on the road with several tough road games remaining on the schedule they can move up in the pecking order.

Wake Forest: Despite an 11-1 record at home this season the Deacons are just 3-5 in ACC play. Nothing really stands out on the resume for Wake Forest as there are no terrible losses but also no glowing wins. The Deacons would need to get hot and move up the standings to even be considered, and a big upset win against one of the top two teams might be needed.

Boston College: A loss to Robert Morris might have sealed the fate for the Eagles as a five-game losing streak has commenced in the last two weeks. Boston College beat Wake Forest and Maryland early in conference play but an early season win over Rhode Island does not hold enough weight for the Eagles to merit serious consideration.

Florida State: The Seminoles beat Florida in non-conference play but the ACC season has been a nightmare with losses in six of the last eight games. With ten losses already and several tough games waiting there will not be much drama behind Selection Sunday for the Seminoles unless they reverse the current path.

Miami, Florida: The Hurricanes stormed out to a 12-0 start but they own only two ACC wins and six losses thus far through the conference season. The early season schedule was very weak so the solid overall record is not going to hold up unless a strong finish and a deep conference tournament run are in order.

Virginia: With three overtime losses in ACC play so the Cavaliers are close to having a much better record but as it stands, a 1-6 conference record is not going to help when being compared with so many similar teams. Virginia beat Arizona early in the season but there is not much substance in the remainder of the non-conference record. Virginia still has nine games to play but this is likely too big of a hole to dig out of.

There is still a lot of basketball left to be played but at the halfway point of the conference season, not much has been determined in the ACC. The conference tournament could be very meaningful this season and the ACC may have a hard time getting bids past the top two teams unless a few teams start to step up and build separation from a tightly packed group of mediocre teams.

Prediction: ACC receives four bids: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, N.C. State