The Bracket Buster, originally a bright ESPN idea to bring some of the best "mid major" college basketball teams together on one day and televise all the games, has now grown into a three day event. While most would consider this progress, I do not. What was meant as a showcase for the best of the mid majors has now turned into a free for all, as nearly every team in the category (with the notable exception of Gonzaga) is playing this weekend, which to me lessens the impact of the event, and certainly loses its luster.
One only has to look at the fact that the college hoops fan will have four games foisted on us on Saturday in which the two teams' overall rating in my Power Rankings equals more than 500. (If the #2 were playing the #10 team the combined overall rating would be 12). Now, really, do we "need" to know what happens when Georgia State travels to Jacksonville Sate (combined rating 507) or Morehead State visits James Madison (combined rating 537)?
No, we don't, but those two rival Memphis vs. Tennessee when looking at the two worst matchups of the Bracket Buster, the immortal meetings of Samford at Louisiana Tech and Binghamton at Manhattan, both of which register a combined number of 566 on my scale. I love college hoops, but games like this cheapen the event, and ESPN on the corporate sponsors should do something about it.
Thankfully, there are good games as well, and what I will do now is give the projected lines on each of the TV games of this event, with the numbers coming straight from my Power Ratings. NOTE: I MAY NOT ALWAYS AGREE WITH THE POWER RATINGS, AS OTHER FACTORS PLAY INTO MY HANDICAP OF EACH GAME, but they are a good starting point, so here goes. The home edge has already been factored in:
Friday:
Davidson -4 Winthrop
Utah State -6.5 over Cal Santa Barbara
Saturday:
Akron -6 over Virginia Commonwealth
Ohio U - 4 over George Mason
Oral Roberts (PK) vs. Creighton
Southern Illinois -5.5 over Nevada
Butler -8 over Drake (See below )
Miami, Oh -3 over Valporaiso (Road chalk)
Cleveland State -7 over Marist
Northridge -6.5 over Rider (This is a TV game?)
St Mary's -5 over Kent State
Sunday:
Illinois State -8 over Wright State
Next, wanted to take a look at some of the non-televised games that figure to be very close, entertaining games, based on talent level and current Power Ratings. All seven of these games feature matchups in which the teams - once the home edges are factored in - are within three points of each other in my Power Ratings. Some of these feature bad teams, but the matchups are close, as to their credit the organizers of this event do try and match up similar teams:
Niagara at Appalachian State, Morehead State at James Madison, Boston U at St Peters, Fairfield at Drexel, Youngstown State at Buffalo, Illinois-Chicago at Northern Iowa. If any of these lines come in at more than three points, I would take a nice look at the dog, as each figures to be very closely contested.
Finally, no examination of the Bracket Buster would be complete without a prediction on the signature game of the event in 2008, as No. 16 Drake visits No. 8 Butler.
This is the best matchup in the history of the Bracket Buster in terms of two nationally ranked teams playing each other, and understandably gets the #1 time slot for the event, Saturday at 5:00pm EST. On top of keeping my own Power Ratings, I of course look at others as well, and by using those the national consensus is that Butler will be favored by about two points here, maybe three. However, as alluded to above, I think the line should be closer to eight. I say that since I think Drake is winning some of these games by smoke and mirrors this season. More importantly, in a battle of teams that are almost mirror images of another in that they love to heave up treys, I will take the home team that is used to the sight lines and comfortable in the gym over the visitor that will have to get comfortable in a hurry.
That would be the case in almost all circumstances, but add in the madcap environment that is Hinkle Fieldhouse, and Butler has a huge edge in that regard. Finally, since this is no doubt the biggest game of the Bracket Buster, have to look at big game experience, and Butler has that in a huge way over a Drake team that has never been in the national spotlight before. I do not think this will be as close as most of the national media claims it will be, and as mentioned above, I would lay up to eight points with Butler in this one.
Thanks for your time, enjoy the games!
Editor's Note: Keith Fredrick will have a full card up on Saturday in both regular rotation and Bracket Buster selections. He was 3-0 on Thursday and having a nice week, so make sure to check him out for Saturday college hoops, and do not forget about Frozen Pond, as Keith was 4-2 on Thursday as well. Finally, he was +$840 overall and had Ryan Newman winning the Daytona 500, so don't miss out on those selections either. Click to win!
