The Horizon League tournament starts this week and the conference tourney offers great intrigue as the fate of Butler will be closely monitored. Butler will get overwhelming support in many areas around the country as bubble teams do not want to see an upset and a bubble spot stolen. The Horizon will certainly be a one-bid league unless someone pulls the upset and Butler and Hinkle Fieldhouse host the tournament this season after wining the regular season title with a 16-2 record.

The Bulldogs are a lock for the Big Dance and having climbed up to #12 in the latest national rankings. Butler could potentially equal or surpass the highest seed ever for a Horizon League team, a title owned currently by the 1985 Loyola team. Last season Butler earned a #5 seed and did not disappoint with two wins in the tournament and the Bulldogs will look to improve seeding with a strong showing in the conference tournament.

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The Horizon League has featured a sweet sixteen team in three of the past five NCAA tournaments and the conference owns the best winning percentage in the nation among non-BCS conferences, placing 7th out of the 31 division I conferences with a .472 winning percentage. Butler will not be a team that anyone wants to see in their side of the bracket and the Horizon League has held its own in non-conference play.

One reason for success in the national tournament may be the timing of the conference tournament. The Horizon League championship game will be on Tuesday night, March 11 so the teams that advance to the NCAA tournament will have a bit of extra time to get ready for the games that really matter. By comparison teams coming out of some of the other mid-major conferences like the Big West, Mountain West, WAC, MAC all play into the Saturday before selection Sunday, leaving little time to recover form the high note of winning the conference tournament. The WCC, Colonial, and Missouri Valley all also finish conference tournaments well before the NCAA tournament, and there may be some correlation between that extra time and the success teams from those conferences have produced in the NCAA tournament.

The four first round games in the Horizon take place Tuesday, March 4th at the higher seed’s home court. Butler and Cleveland State both earned byes by taking the top two spots in regular season play. A bye is huge advantage in this 10-team bracket as Butler and Cleveland State will essentially receive two byes, automatically entering the semi-finals. Butler will be the overwhelming favorite in this tournament but a couple of teams can spoil things for some of the bubble teams from other mid-major conferences and some of the teams caught in the middle of the pack in major conferences.

Wright State: The Raiders tied for first place in regular season last season and by tie-breakers ended up hosting, and eventually winning the conference tournament. Wright State would have been a very unlikely at-large pick so it was a huge performance at home in a must-win tournament. This year the tie-breaker went against Wright State and the Raiders must play a 1st round game and Cleveland State gets the #2 seed and the bye to the semi-finals. Wright State looked like a candidate to climb into at-large discussion with eleven consecutive wins from mid-January to late February but the Raiders lost the final three games of the season with a Bracket Buster loss, a loss at Butler and a close loss at Valparaiso. Wright State did beat Butler at home early in the year as the teams played an unusual early December conference game. Wright won 43-42 in a defensive battle and played very close with Butler last week in Indianapolis. Wright State has had Butler’s number and the match-up would not occur until the final so the Raiders are a serious threat.

Cleveland State: Even though the Vikings faded in the middle of the season after a great start, they have to be considered a team that could steal the tournament and the automatic NCAA tournament bid. Cleveland State will only have to win two games and they will have a big advantage in the semi-final match-up as the opponent will have already have played two games in the week, including a game the night before the semi-final match-up on Saturday. Cleveland State did finish strong with wins in six of the final seven games and the Vikings went 6-2 against the four teams that could end up in the semi-final game. Cleveland State is also the only other Horizon team that beat Butler in the regular season, winning by four in mid-January. Butler took revenge late in the season but it was a very tight game.

Valparaiso: The Crusaders started the season 10-1 but a five-game losing streak in the heart of the conference season stole any momentum gained early in the year. Valparaiso was very competitive against Butler but ended up losing both games. The Crusaders would not play Butler unless they reach the conference final however and Valparaiso has the toughest tournament draw of the four teams hosting first-round games. Valparaiso did win its final four games of the season but a miracle run is likely not in the cards.

Illinois-Chicago: The Flames have been a bit inconsistent but injuries did play a role in a few losses this season and the poor record in the closing schedule was likely in part due to playing five of the final six games away from home. Four teams tied at 9-9 in Horizon play and the Flames earned the best of the tiebreakers and claim the most favorable seed at #4. Illinois-Chicago beat first-round opponent Youngstown State in both meetings this season but the likely second-round opponent UW-Milwaukee could provide a great challenge as the regular season meetings were split with both margins of victory being just two points. The Flames can live and die by long-range shooting so a hot shooting performance could lead to a big upset over Butler in the semi-finals if they are able to get there.

UW-Milwaukee: The Panthers struggled down the stretch losing seven of the final nine games but still held on to a home 1st round game. UW-M lost two overtime games in conference play including a game against Butler that they led almost the entire way so the Panthers were close to having an even stronger position. First-round opponent Loyola-Chicago lost in Milwaukee just a week ago so it might be a tougher than expected first round game facing revenge and the familiarity of the Ramblers having just played in the building and losing. The Panthers were NCAA tournament darlings in 2005 and 2006 however so anything is possible.

In a fairly balanced league, there certainly could be road upsets in the first-round. UW-Green Bay went 9-9 in league play so they are likely the best candidate although a run to the championship game would be hard to see happening. Loyola-Chicago was a much more competitive team than its record and Youngstown State and Detroit are both capable of a surprise win in the first round but given the advantage the top two seeds have in this bracket it should come down to Butler and one of the five teams listed above.