Five teams claimed automatic bids to the NCAA tournament this week with many more to follow in the coming days. Missouri Valley Conference champion Drake should receive a strong seed in the tournament but the other four squads to earn early tickets to the Big Dance will likely be seeded in the 14-16 range and given very little shot to make much noise in the tournament. We’ll provide a closer look at the first five teams to punch their tickets to the 2008 NCAA Tournament.

Drake (26-4 Missouri Valley Champion)

Most projections had Drake picked to finish towards the bottom of the typically strong Missouri Valley Conference but the Bulldogs were one of the great surprise teams of the 2007-08 season. Drake took command of the standings by a convincing margin and plowed through the conference tournament with ease, becoming the first top seed to win the usually highly competitive tournament in ten years. Drake also played through a three game conference stretch without its leading scorer Josh Young, adding to the impressiveness of the season run.

Drake is led by three seniors with MVC player of the year Adam Emmenecker leading the team. Emmenecker is not a huge part of the scoring, averaging just 8.5 points per game but his contributions with assists, rebounds, defense, and leadership are tremendous. Senior forward Klayton Korver has not quite matched the career of his NBA brother but Korver averaged almost 14 points per game in the final five games of the season. Guard Leonard Houston provided consistent scoring in the conference season and saw his average jump almost ten points per game from last season. Sophomore Josh Young has posted eight games of 23 or more points and 6-8 junior Brandon Cox was second in the conference in rebounding. Drake typically plays nine players but the bench provides little scoring as the starting five all typically play close to 30 minutes per game or more.

Despite being a top 25 team in the national rankings for most of the season Drake does not get a lot of respect from the computer numbers. Drake barely cracks the top 30 in the LVSC rankings and Drake ranks just 16th in the Sagarin ratings. The Bulldogs did not play a challenging schedule outside of conference play but the complete dominance of a highly regarded conference should hold some weight. Drake did win at Butler this season and beat Illinois State, the #2 team in the Missouri Valley, three times season. Drake projects as a #5 seed in the NCAA tournament but the Bulldogs could move up if some of the other teams rated similarly falter in conference tournament play this week. There may be strong line value with Drake in an opening tournament game due to the somewhat suspect statistical ratings. Drake is a very solid team that few of the top teams will want to see in the same part of the bracket. Drake went 11-2 in road games this season and should they get by the opening game, Drake is also 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season.

Advertisement

Cornell (21-5 Ivy League Champion)

Cornell was the first team to earn a bid into the NCAA tournament by finishing 14-0 in Ivy League games. There are not any impressive wins from the non-conference schedule but Cornell did earn covers against Duke and Syracuse. This is a very young team that showed great improvement as the season went on but the lack of veteran leadership and tournament experience might be problematic for the Big Red. Cornell only starts one senior and the top two scorers are both sophomores. Cornell played the 297th ranked schedule in the nation according to the Sagarin ratings and whatever opponents is matched up against Cornell will be a big jump in competition.

Leading scorer Ryan Wittman is the son Randy Wittman who was the 1983 Big Ten Player of the Year and now is the coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Sophomore Guard Louis Dale may be the key for the Big Red in a potential tournament upset however as Dale scored over 20 points five times this season. Dale is undersized by D-I standards but he was nominated for a spot as a McDonald’s All-American coming out of high school after a great career in Birmingham, Alabama. Junior Adam Gore was expected to be Cornell’s top scorer in 2006-07 but he had a serious knee injury early in the season. He has returned to action this season despite differing much of the scoring load to his younger teammates but he is still a key defensive player and he shot over 92 percent from the free throw line this season. This is a solid team but would likely have trouble matching up against some of the bigger more physical teams that will be in the tournament. Being such a young team, Cornell may be more of an upset threat in the 2009 NCAA tournament and the Ivy League has not had much NCAA tournament success in recent years.

Winthrop (20-11 Big South Champion)

Winthrop dropped off considerably from the great success of recent seasons including last year’s NCAA tournament upset over Notre Dame but the Eagles will be back in the NCAA tournament. A coaching change and significant player turnover led to some losses this year but when it mattered the Eagles delivered and won a fourth consecutive conference championship. It has been an emotional season for the Eagles coming off the great 2007 season and facing tragedy last May when reserve point guard De’Andre Adams was killed in automobile accident. The team still put together several impressive wins this season beating Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Miami (Fl), and Akron but the Eagles did not have answers for regular season Big South champion UNC-Ashville until the tournament final.

Winthrop’s success is built on playing excellent defense, allowing an average of just 58 points per game. This should help the Eagles keep a first-round game close although Winthrop is a terrible free throw shooting team, averaging less than 60 percent. The top three scorers are all seniors for Winthrop and having tournament experience should give the Eagles a better chance at a first round upset than some of the other teams that end up with similar seeds. Leading scorer Michael Jenkins came up huge in the championship game with a 33-point effort and the bulk of the scoring is shared between Jenkins and seniors Taj McCullough and Chris Gaynor. Gaynor is the top 3-point threat while McCullough led the team in rebounds. Tournament success can not be underrated and Winthrop has shown it can play big when it matters most. The Eagles will not have the buzz they had last season entering the tournament and will certainly have a less favorable seed but they are a threat with the right match-up.

Belmont (25-8 Atlantic Sun Champion)

The Bruins are making a third consecutive NCAA tournament trip and with an experienced squad this could be the season that Belmont gives a strong first round performance. Belmont has been a #15 seed each of the past two seasons losing badly to eventual Final Four teams each year. Belmont could project in a similar position this season although the Bruins should earn some respect for winning at Alabama and at Cincinnati this season as well as riding a 13-game win streak into the tournament. Belmont scores an average of 80 points per game but that pace likely won’t translate against a much tougher opponent in the tournament as the Bruins scored 44 and 55 in the past two appearances. Belmont would likely struggle if they face another strong defensive team but would have a better chance if they match-up against a team that is more offensive oriented as Belmont’s best wins came in high scoring games.

The key scorers for Belmont are almost exclusively seniors and juniors although freshman Jordan Campbell has earned a starting position. Belmont is a very strong shooting team averaging over 45 percent on the season and the Bruins will live and die by the 3-point shot averaging almost 29 shots per game from beyond the arc. Senior Justin Hare averages almost 15 points per game but the scoring is generally well distributed with seven players averaging at least six points per game. Belmont lacks a regular contributor over 6’9” but overall the Bruins have decent size for a team out of a small conference. Belmont is likely destined a #15 or even a #16 seed given the poor ratings of the Atlantic Sun Conference. Don’t expect to write Belmont in your bracket for a second round game but if they hit a hot shooting stretch they can certainly provide a scare.

Austin Peay (24-10 Ohio Valley Champion)

The Ohio Valley does not get strong ratings this season and only two teams finished with winning records. This will be the first tournament appearance for the Governors since 2003 despite a supreme scare in Friday’s semifinal game in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Austin Peay did beat Belmont twice this season so the Governors may earn a more favorable seed than their fellow Tennessee small school qualifier. There are really no non-conference wins of note on the resume for Austin Peay playing the 299th ranked schedule in the nation. Austin Peay played a few challenging opponents early in the year but could not earn a marquee upset win. This tournament appearance will be enjoyed as Austin Peay has often been the favorite in the conference tournament and the regular season champion but has often fell short with an upset loss.

The five starters for the Governors are all seniors and juniors and this is a team the spreads the ball around with five players averaging double figures in points. One thing that Austin Peay does extremely well is get to the line, averaging over 24 free throw attempts per game. Austin Peay does struggle with rebounding however and the Governors are a very small team with no key contributors taller than 6’5”. Depending on the match-up this could be a problem for Austin Peay and the chances for advancement are not great despite the experience on this team.