Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence has dominated March with an impressive 16-1 (94%) run, including 13 straight winners. Don't miss out on his Daily Winners or even better his Championship Week Package!
THE WAY WE SEE IT: Like a dentist ferreting out a bad tooth, this event is wide open and up for grabs. No less than four teams sport 20-wIn ledgers and all make our list of teams most likely to wear the crown. The problem is NONE of them bring much in the way of tournament credentials into this year’s battle.
CAL NORTHRIDGE went from loser to 20-game winner thanks to a 5-1 SU and ATS mark in games in which they sere seeking revenge his season. A No. 10 seed last year, the Matadors are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in this event the last seven years.
FULLERTON STATE won 20 games last season and was 9-2-1 ATS away from home this year. The problem here is the Titans’ 4-14 SU and 6-11-1 ATS mark the last eighteen games in this tourney. UCSB managed to cover the number just ONE TIME in nine tries against teams that were off a win this season. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of advancing too deep into a tournament where they are 2-5 SU and ATS of late.
Our final contender, PACIFIC made the biggest leap, going from 12 wins last year to 21 victories this season. Like the Gauchos, they too struggled in games against opponents off a win this year, going 5-10-3 ATS. However, the Pac Rat has won this tournament two of the past four years and is 6-2 SU in its last eight games.
THE SLEEPER: CAL IRVINE The Anteaters shook off a sluggish start (4-8 fi rst twelve games) to earn a mid-seed in this year’s tourney. Irvine lost to Long Beach State, last year’s No. 1 seed, in the semi-fi nal round and could be back for more this year.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON FULLERTON STATE over UCSB. The Titans went down twice to Barbie this season and will want blood. The Gauchos are just 3-6 SU and ATS as tournament favorites of more than two points. Look for the number.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES:
CAL DAVIS: incomplete (joined conference this season)…
CAL IRVINE: 4-1 ATS off a DD loss, 4-1 ATS off a SUATS loss, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-9 SUATS L13 games, 1-4 ATS as favs vs revenge...
CAL POLY SLO: 5-0 ATS dog > 5 points, 6-2 ATS vs opp off win...
CAL RIVERSIDE: 0-2 ATS off win, 2-0 ATS off loss…
CAL SANTA BARBARA: 0-5 SUATS vs foe off DD win, 0-4 ATS dog 4 > points, 6-2 ATS w/ > 3 rest vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS favs off BB SUATS wins…
CS NORTHRIDGE: 6-2 ATS L8 games, 5-1 ATS vs opp off BB wins, 4-1 ATS vs #1-3 seed…
FULLERTON ST: 3-0 ATS L3 as favs, 0-4 SUATS off ATS win 9 > points, 1-6 ATS vs opp off loss, 2-9-1 ATS as #4-9 seed, 2-12 SU & 3-10-1 ATS if win-loss percentage < .666…
LONG BEACH ST: 4-1 ATS vs .750 > opp, 6-1-1 ATS if win-loss percentage is .650 >, 4-1 ATS L5 games, 1-4 ATS w/ > 3 days rest vs opp off SU loss...
PACIFIC: 4-13 ATS L17 games, 0-4 ATS dog 5 > points, 1-5 SUATS vs .760 > opp, 0-4 w/ revenge off SU Loss, 0-4 ATS w/ > 3 days rest off SU win.
TECH NOTES:
Teams off BB wins are 2-11-1 ATS vs foe off DD loss… favorites > 10 points are 3-11-1 ATS...teams with one-only same season loss revenge are 2-10-2 ATS...#4 seeds are 11-2 ATS L13 games… #6 seeds are 11-5 ATS L16 games… #7 seeds are 2-10 ATS L12 games… #8 seeds are 1-5 ATS L6 games...#9 and #10 seeds are 7-0-1 ATS.
