Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence has dominated March with an impressive 16-1 (94%) run, including 13 straight winners. Don't miss out on his Daily Winners or even better his Championship Week Package!
THE WAY WE SEE IT: It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to draw the conclusion that MEMPHIS wins this tournament. Not only are they the host team (home teams are 10-3 ATS in this event), they just happen to be arguably the best team in the land. They’ve chewed up the top seeds in this tourney in the past (6-1 ATS versus No. 4 or greater) and enter as the two-time defending champs.
HOUSTON checks in as a 20-win team having cashed in six of its last seven tries as a conference dog. In this tourney, though, they are just 12-25-1 ATS taking points from opponents that are off win. UAB bounced back from a losing effort last year to become a 20-win team this season (after a 2-4 start). The Blazers did most of their damage at home this year (9-1 ATS) but are 13-3 ATS as a conference tourney dog.
SOUTHERN MISS went on a nice pointspread run to conclude the season (7-2 entering Saturday’s visit to Marshall). FYI: the dog caught fleas in their games this season, going 4-16-1 ATS before the Marshall game.
THE SLEEPER: TULSA - A lot of post-season pedigree comes with the Golden Hurricane (37-24 SU, including 16-4-1 ATS as dogs, 4-0 as conference tourney dogs). Have to like the manner in which they fi nished up the season, too (5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS before hosting Central Florida in the season fi nale on 3/8). Do NOT lay points into this team.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON MEMPHIS in every game (sans Tulsa). Since John Calipari took over the reins of this program in 2000, they are 130-17 SU and 74-54-4 ATS at home. As a post-season host they are 17-0 SU and 13-4 ATS. Enough said.
CONFERENCE USA
TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES:
EAST CAROLINA: 0-3 ATS vs opp off SU win, 1-3 ATS L4 as dogs, 1-3 ATS w/ 3+ days rest…
CENTRAL FLORIDA: incomplete (joined conference 2005-2006 season)…
HOUSTON: 3-1 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 3-1-1 ATS L5 as favs, 5-2 ATS as #6 or lower seed, 2-5 ATS vs opp off win > 10 points…
MARSHALL: 2-0 ATS as dogs, 0-1 ATS as favs...
MEMPHIS: 6-1 ATS vs #4 or higher seed, 0-4-1 ATS off ATS win 18 > points, 1-5 ATS off SU win, 2-6 ATS vs opp off SUATS win, 3-8 ATS w/ > 3 days rest...
RICE: 2-0 ATS as dogs 6 < pts...
SMU: 0-2 ATS as dogs, 0-2 ATS w/ revenge, 0-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins...
SOUTHERN MISS: 3-0 ATS as favs, 4-1 ATS vs .600 < opp, 3-1 ATS off DD SU win, 0-4 ATS off SU dog win…
TEXAS EL PASO: 2-0 ATS w/ revenge, 2-0 ATS vs opp off SU win, 2-0 ATS as #3 or higher seed...
TULANE: 5-0 ATS as dogs 11 < pts, 6-1 ATS as #8 or lower seed, 1-5 ATS off BB SU wins, 1-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU win...
TULSA: 4-0 ATS as a dog, 5-1 ATS off ATS win > 10 points, 8-3 ATS dog or favorite < 3 points, 0-2 ATS vs opp off SU win...
UAB: 13-3 ATS L16 as dogs, 9-3 ATS w/ > 3 rest, 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp off BB SU wins, 4-1 ATS w/ revenge, 1-5 ATS as favs < 9 pts.
TECH NOTES:
Teams off SUATS loss are 12-4 ATS L16… 'Home' teams are 10-3 ATS… teams off BB SU wins are 1-6 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss… #2 seeds are 2-7-1 ATS L10 games… #3 seeds are 12-4 SU L16 games… #4 seeds are 1-4 ATS as DD dogs...#5 seeds are 3-10 ATS L13 games… #9 seed dogs are 8-2 ATS L10 games.
