Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence has dominated March with an impressive 16-1 (94%) run, including 13 straight winners. Don't miss out on his Daily Winners or even better his Championship Week Package!
THE WAY WE SEE IT: The Stormin’ Mormons of BYU lost on this floor in the title game against UNLV last season. While revenge will be on the minds of the many wives in attendance rooting on their Cougars, we’re forced to live with the fact that the host team in this series is on a 6-0-1 ATS run.
For what it’s worth, BYU was 9-2-1 ATS against teams they beat this season. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 14-5 SU and 11-7-1 ATS in this tournament, including 3-0-1 ATS as a dog (that ties into the fact that all dogs are 34-20-2 ATS in this event). This just in: Rebel boss Lon Kruger is 30-19 ATS in postseason play, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home.
When Coach of the Year honors come up, NEW MEXICO mentor Steve Alford’s name has to be in the mix. He took over a losing Lobo team this year and transformed them into a 25-win squad. Sure, he inherited all fi ve top scorers from last year’s team, but a job well done, nonetheless. The Lobos have had solid success in this tourney (20-10-1 ATS S/93, including 10-3-1 as dogs and 5-1 L6G). They went one-and-out last season but that won’t happen this year.
SAN DIEGO STATE reached the 20-win plateau for the second straight season this year (had won 20-plus games only two times in previous 21 seasons) behind ex-Michigan mentor Steve Fisher. While the Aztecs own good numbers in this tourney, they are just 1-8 ATS in 2nd games.
THE SLEEPER: UTAH Despite a falloff to end the season (Utes were 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in last six game before season fi nale at UNLV on 3/8), Utah brings a modicum of success into this tournament. That’s confi rmed by their 20-9 SU mark since 1995. However, in those games they are just 6-18-1 ATS as a favorite. Should they puppy up, they could leave a mark.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY AGAINST AIR FORCE. The Falcons have never really taken fl ight in this tournament (0-13 SU last 13 games) and have struggled this season under new first-year mentor Jeff Reynolds (0-6 ATS versus foe off a SU and ATS win). That’s what happens when your offense averages all of 60 PPG. FYI: teams in this event that score 56 or fewer points are 5-19 SU and ATS.
TECH NOTES: Dogs who are 0-3 SUATS L3 games are 6-1 ATS...Teams w/ revenge are 26-13-2 ATS...Dogs are 28-14-1 ATS L6Y...#1 seeds are 5-13 ATS L18 (2-7 ATS off ATS win)… #5 seeds are 9-4-1 ATS L14… #6 seeds are 8-3 ATS L11. Also note that the Thomas & Mack Center is located on the campus of the UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA-LAS VEGAS.
EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES
AIR FORCE: 0-13 SU L13 games, 0-7 ATS favorite or dog 8 < points, 0-5 ATS vs opp off loss, 1-9 ATS vs < .740 opp, 1-9 ATS vs opp off loss or win 10 < points, 1-6 ATS when win-loss percentage < .333, 1-6 ATS as #6-8 seed, 1-6 ATS off win, 4-12 ATS 1st game...
BYU: 7-1 ATS as favorites, 4-0 SUATS off loss 7 > points, 2-6 ATS L8 games, 0-5 ATS vs opp off DD win, 2-9 ATS as dogs...
COLORADO ST: 4-1 ATS vs opp off SUATS win, 7-2 ATS off ATS win 4 > points, 7-2 ATS off SUATS win, 9-3 ATS vs > .666 opp, 9-3 ATS as #6-7 seed, 7-3 ATS dogs > 6 points, 3-10 ATS vs .666 < opp...
NEW MEXICO: 7-1 SUATS vs < .520 opp, 6-0 ATS favorite > 7 points, 4-1 ATS vs foe off SUATS loss, 5-1-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins, 5-2-1 ATS vs foe off ATS win 7 > points, 10-3 ATS off ATS loss > 3 points, 9-2-1 ATS L12 as dog, 12-3 SUATS when win-loss percentage > .777, 16-7 ATS 1st game...
SAN DIEGO ST: 5-0 ATS off ATS win 7 > points, 4-0 ATS off DD ATS loss, 7-1 ATS off loss, 6-1 ATS when win-loss percentage .425 <, 10-3 ATS w/ 3+ days rest, 10-4 ATS 1st game, 8-3 ATS favorite or dog < 5 points, 7-4 ATS vs #4-10 seed, 1-8 ATS 2nd game...
TCU: 0-5 ATS favorite 6 > points, 0-5 SUATS vs .785 > foe, 1-7 ATS when win-loss percentage .650 >, 1-7 ATS off SU dog win, 1-7 ATS off win w/ revenge, 4-14 ATS off win, 2-7 ATS dog 7 > points...
UNLV: 18-1 SU 1st game, 4-0 ATS vs #2 seed, 8-1-1 ATS dog, 5-1 ATS vs opp off ATS win 14 > points, 9-2 ATS vs #1-2 seeds...
UTAH: 2-10 ATS 2nd game, 3-16-1 ATS vs opp off ATS win > 2 points, 3-11 ATS 1st game, 3-11 ATS vs .666 > opp, 3-11 ATS vs opp off win 8 > points, 4-16-1 ATS when win-loss percentage < .830, 5-15-1 ATS off SUATS win (3-13-1 ATS favorites)...
WYOMING: 1-8 ATS vs foe off loss, 0-7 ATS vs opp off win 6 > points, 0-5 ATS off DD win, 0-6 ATS vs opp off DD win, 1-5 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss, 2-17 ATS as a favorite, 5-16 ATS 1st game, 4-11 ATS off win.
