Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence has dominated March with an impressive 16-1 (94%) run, including 13 straight winners. Don't miss out on his Daily Winners or even better his Championship Week Package!
THE WAY WE SEE IT: Unlike years past when opening round games took place at home sites and then moved on to a neutral venue, the MAC Tourney now begins and ends at the ‘Q’ in Cleveland.
KENT STATE and AKRON most likely benefi t from the proximity with each school approximately 30 miles south of the Arena. The Golden Flashes are the team to beat. Behind five returning starters from last year’s 21-win edition, they were 5-1 SU and ATS this season against opponents with a win percentage of more than .666 (check Akron result on 3/8). They are also 19-8 SU and 20-7 ATS in this event since 1999, winning the title three times in the last seven years.
The Zips denied them that opportunity last season. The Tiremakers started the season 14-4 but they’ve been a bit choppy since and have dropped 10 of their last 15 games in this tournament.
WESTERN MICHIGAN wears the crown from the weak West Division. While the path is paved for them to make it to the title game (No. 1 seeds are 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS of late), we’re not at all enamored with their lack of success in this tourney (0-5 ATS L5G, 2-8 ATS vs revenge and 2-7 SU and ATS vs. 700 or greater opposition).
OHIO U started the season ablaze at 15-6 but petered out down the stretch. The Bobcats have had decent pointspread success in this tournament (see below) and are certainly capable of pulling off an upset or two.
THE SLEEPER: MIAMI OHIO RedHawks may have struggled against top quality competition this season (1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS versus greater than .666 foes) but they closed up well and are the defending champs from last year’s tourney. Not interested in laying points into this unit.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON KENT STATE in the title game. The Flashes left last year’s event in the 2nd round and will be anxious to make amends. No. 1 seeds in the title game of this tournament are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. Kent State is 17-2 ATS in it last 19 victories in this event.
MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE
TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES:
AKRON: 0-4 SUATS vs opp off loss 9 > points, 4-8 SUATS if seeded #9 or higher (0-5 vs foe off SUATS loss), 4-7 SUATS if a winning team, 3-7 SUATS off win or loss 4 < points, 5-10 SU in this tourney, 4-6 SUATS as a favorite...
BALL ST: 4-0-1 ATS w/ 3+ days rest, 6-1-1 ATS off BB wins vs opp off ATS win 4 > points, 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 18-12-3 ATS S/ 91 (11-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 2 or more points)…
BOWLING GREEN: 0-7 SU vs #1 seed, 0-6 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 0-5 ATS off ATS win 13 > points, 1-11 ATS as # 6 or lower seed, 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS vs .700 > opp, 1-8 SUATS dog 6 > points, 1-6 ATS off SUATS loss, 0-7 L7 / 2-12 L14 games, 3-14 ATS when win percentage < .650, 2-8 ATS vs #1-2 seed, 4-13 ATS vs opp off win...
BUFFALO: 1-7-1 ATS w/ revenge, 1-4 ATS as dog > 7 points, 2-7-1 ATS vs #4-12 seeds…
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: 3-0 ATS favorites, 4-1 ATS if win-loss percentage < .333, 4-1 ATS as #12-13 seed, 1-4 ATS dog < 9 points…
EASTERN MICHIGAN: 4-0 ATS vs .730 > opp, 4-0 ATS off win 14 > points, 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 6-1 ATS vs foe off DD win, 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS if #1-4 seed, 1-5 ATS vs opp off loss 4 > points, 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS L9 games, 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS if #6-13 seed, 2-7 ATS dog 6 > points, 2-7 ATS vs < .570 opp, 2-6 ATS with revenge, 2-13 SU & 4-11 ATS if win-loss percentage > .600...
KENT ST: 14-0 SU & 12-2 ATS favorites 5 > points, 9-1 ATS vs < .600 opp, 8-2 ATS w/ revenge vs opp off BB wins, 13-4 ATS off a win, 16-2 SU & 14-4 ATS as a #1 or #2 seed, 15-4 SUATS vs #3 or lower seed...
MIAMI OHIO: 4-0 SUATS off ATS loss 8 > points, 6-1 ATS home, 0-6 ATS off win 20 > points, 3-8 ATS vs #1-2 seed…
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: 5-0-1 ATS off win or loss 6 < points, 4-0-1 ATS vs #7 or lower seeds, 6-1-1 ATS favorite or dog < 10 points, 5-1-1 ATS if win-loss percentage .400 >, 5-1 ATS as #10 or higher seed…
OHIO: 5-1 ATS DD favs, 10-3 ATS dogs (5-1 ATS off SU dog win), 4-0 ATS with same-season revenge, 1-4 ATS with same-season double revenge…
TOLEDO: 1-8 SU & 1-7-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-6 ATS away, 3-14 SU & 4-11-2 ATS vs .640 > opp, 3-14-2 ATS if win-loss percentage .570 >...
WESTERN MICHIGAN: 1-4 ATS home, 1-4 ATS DD dog, 1-5 ATS vs opp off loss, 2-9 ATS vs revenge (1-7 ATS as favorite, 0-4 ATS HF), 3-10 ATS off loss or win 6 < points.
TECH NOTES (MAC IS NO LONGER PLAYING AT CONFERENCE HOME SITES - ALL GAMES IN CLEVELAND): DD HF's are 20-9 ATS (11-2 ATS vs .370 > opp)...teams with same-season double revenge are 17-37 ATS (8-24 ATS off win; 4-17 ATS off BB wins)… teams with same-season single revenge are 26-16 ATS (14-6 ATS vs opp off BB wins)… #1 seed favorites are 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS L15 games and 26-1 SU & 20-6-1 ATS -5 > points… #2 seeds are 13-6-2 ATS L21 games… #3 seeds are 6-13 ATS L19 games… #6 seeds are 2-9 ATS L11 games… #7 seeds are 9-13-2 ATS L24 games… #8 seeds are 3-8-1 ATS L12 games… #11 seeds are 8-1 ATS L9 games.
