Selection Sunday is one of the most exciting days of the year in part for the drama and anticipation of the release of the brackets but also because of the start of the discussion and debate that fills the gap before the tournament action actually begins. After examining the seeds and pairings, here’s our take on some of the heavily discussed teams and issues of the tournament bracket.
Memphis having to go through Houston.
The Tigers were given the No. 2 overall seed but face a potentially tough location draw with the regional final in Houston. Memphis could make a case for being the overall No. 1 with the fewest losses in the nation and a great non-conference resume but the weak Conference USA schedule rightly knocks them down a spot. It is assuming a lot to project a regional final game against Texas in Houston but that would obviously present an advantage for the Longhorns. Texas could have been placed elsewhere but the Longhorns had a strong enough resume to be given some preferential treatment as well.
Given the sites of the regions this season it makes the most sense to have Memphis in the South region even though Detroit is a comparable distance from Memphis as to Houston. It is a potentially tough draw for Memphis but the Tigers do have a favorable location for the first two games in Little Rock. If the regional sites were different, Memphis would have been given a more favorable spot but this year it did not work out. Memphis was a No. 1 seed in Dallas in 2006 and a No. 2 seed in San Antonio last season so going to Texas is not a new experience.
Tennessee not getting a No. 1 seed.
The Volunteers could make a pretty strong argument for being a No. 1 seed with one of the best overall strength of schedules and the top RPI in the nation. The SEC ranking sixth of the six major conferences likely hurt Tennessee but the non-conference schedule was filled with quality wins including being the only team to beat Memphis. Tennessee did play poorly in the SEC tournament and were penalized for it, falling to the No. 2 line while Kansas claims the final No. 1 spot.
Kansas did win the Big 12 tournament but the Jayhawks did not have a marquee win over an elite team until beating Texas in the championship game in a highly favorable location. Kansas beat a pair of solid Pac-10 teams with wins over USC and Arizona but the rest of the non-conference schedule was pretty weak and the Jayhawks also had a favorable Big 12 schedule relative to some of the other teams in the conference. Tennessee can make a strong case with non-conference wins over Ohio State, Temple, at Xavier, at Gonzaga, at West Virginia, in addition to the win at Memphis and a strong SEC performance.
The committee allegedly ranks the teams within the individual seeds and Tennessee would unquestionably be the top ranked No. 2 seed, yet the Volunteers are in the same region as the overall No. 1, North Carolina. Tennessee does get placed in the best geographical locations it could have been but the edge is negated if they end up facing North Carolina in Charlotte. Tennessee apparently was punished for the conference tournament loss but it seems that other elite teams like Georgetown and Duke were not set back for losing in similar positions.
Wisconsin falling to a No. 3 seed.
The Big Ten regular season and tournament champion is not given much respect by the committee sliding to a No. 3 seed but it would be hard to justify moving the Badgers ahead of any of the current No. 2 seeds despite Wisconsin moving up to No. 5 in the most recent national media poll. Tennessee certainly deserved to be at least a No. 2 seed and the Badgers would have a hard time moving ahead of Duke since the Blue Devils crushed Wisconsin 82-58 in a head-to-head match-up and Duke also deserves credit for beating the overall No. 1 North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Wisconsin did win at Texas this season but the Longhorns can trump that loss with high quality wins over two No. 1 seeds Kansas and UCLA, and a No. 2 seed Tennessee.
Wisconsin actually beat just four teams that are in the field of 65 this season and one of those teams is Georgia, who would not be there without the miraculous tournament run. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed that Wisconsin might have been able to push out but the Big East was given a lot of respect from the committee with eight teams entering the field. The best non-conference win for the Hoyas was against a 17-16 Alabama team but ultimately the conference wins are hard to ignore as the Hoyas beat nine teams that are in the NCAA tournament field. Wisconsin is placed in the closest geographical locations but there were really no highly favorable venues for the Badgers.
Butler as a No. 7 seed.
The Bulldogs may be the team that should have the biggest gripe with their placement. Butler is currently ranked #10 in the nation in the media poll yet is just a No. 7 seed. The polls certainly don’t mean anything but consider that the twelve teams that were given No. 1 to No. 3 seeds are all ranked in the top 13 of the latest ESPN/USA Today poll. Butler is the one team in that was left out and it seems like a pretty far drop to fall to a No. 7 seed. Last season Butler was a No. 5 seed despite losing three more games than this year’s squad, granted the Bulldogs had a few stronger non-conference wins last season.
Butler also faces a tough first-round location situation facing South Alabama in the state of Alabama. Butler did have weaker numbers in terms of the RPI and strength of schedule but the Horizon was ranked as the No. 10 conference in the nation by the Sagarin ratings, one spot ahead of Conference USA. For the committee to say that at least 24 teams had better profiles than Butler is a bit of a reach. Also consider that Butler was a team that was a popular first-round go-against team in last year’s 5/12 match-up with Old Dominion. Butler actually closed as just a 2-point favorite in that game but prevailed and went on to the sweet 16 before giving eventual national champion Florida a very close game. The Horizon League has done well in recent tournaments with Butler and UW-Milwaukee making runs so don’t count out this placement adding fuel to the fire for the Bulldogs.
Arizona State out, Oregon and Arizona in.
No team is getting more support from the media outlets as tournament snub and the Sun Devils have a compelling case. The win over Xavier is a nice chip to have but the remainder of the non-conference schedule was embarrassingly weak. It’s not ASU’s fault that the Maui Invitational field turned out to be a soft one with Illinois and LSU not living up to expectations but the bottom-line is Arizona State faced a very weak schedule relative to the other two debated Pac-10 teams that got in, Arizona and Oregon. Not only did they play a weak non-conference schedule, they lost twice in the respectable non-conference games they did play to marginal teams Illinois and Nebraska.
The Sun Devils did have a solid record in a very tough Pac-10 but take a look at the final 15 games for Arizona State and try to make an argument about the Sun Devils belonging in the Big Dance as Arizona State closed the season going 5-10 in the final 15 games. The pair of wins over Arizona is worth something but the Wildcats were likely given some benefit of the doubt with injuries and Arizona should be rewarded for taking on such a tough schedule. The debate would likely be more relevant between Arizona State and Oregon as the Ducks are certainly overvalued as a No. 9 seed and Oregon has some questionable losses, losing to Oakland and Nebraska while finishing the season 6-9 in the final 15 games. Even though Arizona State beat Oregon early in the season, the early March wins for the Ducks over both Arizona State and Arizona likely saved the spot.
St. Joseph’s in, Dayton out.
Injuries played a great role for the decline of the Flyers but beating St. Joseph’s in early March might give some credence to Dayton’s argument for inclusion over as the Hawks were certainly one of the last teams in. The case for Dayton is probably the most compelling of the teams left out as wins over Pittsburgh and Louisville look very impressive especially considering how much respect the Big East was given in the bracket. The bad losses in the A-10 were troubling however with George Washington, La Salle, Richmond, and Duquesne all beating Dayton.
St. Joseph’s beat a less impressive Big East squad with a win over Villanova but the Hawks have nothing else of note in the non-conference slate and even some bad losses mixed in falling to Holy Cross and Creighton. The two wins over A-10 Champion Xavier in March put St. Joseph’s over the top however, as Dayton lost to Xavier three times this season. It would have been interesting to see if Dayton would have been considered for the spot that Temple claimed had St. Joseph’s won the automatic bid.
ACC with just four bids as the Hokies are left out.
Virginia Tech came so close to beating North Carolina in the conference tournament and a win in that game likely sends the Hokies to the tournament but instead the powerful ACC is left with just four bids. The conference tournament win over Miami was the first win of the season for Virginia Tech against a team that made the NCAA tournament however, that’s right Virginia Tech had zero regular season wins over teams that made the tournament field.
Virginia Tech finished 9-7 in the highly rated ACC which normally would be enough but since the expansion to twelve teams some teams catch major breaks in the conference scheduling. Virginia Tech was a team that had a very favorable ACC schedule in the regular season playing the top four teams North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and Miami just once and going 0-4 in those games. Virginia Tech also had some questionable losses in a very weak non-conference schedule losing to Old Dominion, Richmond, and Penn State and it is pretty tough to determine what the best non-conference win would be, take your pick between St. John’s, UNC-Ashville or Hofstra.
Villanova is a team that some are pointing to as the team that Virginia Tech could replace but the Wildcats have far more quality wins on the resume beating Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and West Virginia in conference play as well as a little more weight in the non-conference slate with wins over George Mason, LSU, and Temple.
