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Now that the 2008 NCAA Tournament is entering the SWEET 16 round, we present an interesting twist within the tourney. It pertains only to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do they perform like a team with experience and panache, or are they filled with over-confidence? Let's take a look.
According to our database, since 1991, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 46-32 SU and 32-45-1 ATS in Round Three of the tourney. The cut-line, however, is the pointspread. That's confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 25-2 SU and 16-11 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 21-30 SU and 16-34-1 ATS in competitive contests.
Last year witnessed four SWEET 16 returnees, namely Florida (-10, 65-57), Georgetown (-7.5, 66-65), Memphis (+3, 65-64) and UCLA (-3, 64-55). All four managed SU victories, while going 2-2 ATS. Atypically, though, the two teams that were favored by more than 6 points covered both games, while those priced less lost the money in both contests. Hmmm.
The common denominator among all four teams? Defense. All four allowed 65 or fewer points, while none scored more than 66 points.
Taking a look at this year's list of returnees, we find no less than five teams that we here last year. They include Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, Tennessee and UCLA. What a coincidence. The four No.1 seeds, and a No. 2.
Looking at it from a 'seed' perspective, our SWEET 16 returnees are 36-10 SU and 23-23 ATS as No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. If these top two seeded squads scored more than 75 points in their last game to advance to this round they improve to 25-3 SU and 17-11 ATS, including 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS if they are also off a double-digit win.
A lot to digest, for sure. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16 the winners will likely be those that have 'been there-and-done that', if you know what I mean.
Be sure to check out our NCAA Tournament Round 3-4 Notes for more interesting fodder on this week's tourney action.
