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Sweet 16 Analysis
 

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was filled with the standard chaos we’ve come expect. For instance, three double-digit seeds (Davidson, Western Kentucky and Villanova) advanced to the Sweet 16, while a pair of No. 2 seeds got sent home quickly and another needed overtime to dodge defeat.

All four No. 1 seeds moved on, but Memphis and UCLA were taken to the wire by Mississippi State and Texas A&M, respectively. Duke barely survived the first round against Belmont, only to get sent packing by West Virginia. Tennessee got all it wanted from American before getting stretched to the limit in an OT win over Butler.

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Those were all interesting developments, but the weekend belonged to one team, Davidson, and its star player Stephen Curry. The Wildcats, who had taken Duke and UNC to the wire before losing nail-biters back in non-conference play, are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1969, when a guy named “Lefty” roamed the sidelines for Davidson.

With his team trailing by double digits early in the second half to both Gonzaga and Georgetown, Curry took the Wildcats on his shoulders and put on a pair of thrilling shooting displays. He drained 8-of-10 treys against the ‘Zags, including a tie-breaking triple from the right wing after taking a pass from Andrew Lovedale off a steal on the baseline.

This was Danny Manning in 1988, Carmelo Anthony in 2003. This was special.

I expected Davidson to beat Gonzaga, but I felt like Georgetown was a bad matchup for the Wildcats, who don’t have the depth and size of most top-tier teams. I thought the Hoyas simply had too much power for Bob McKillop's team to contend with in the lane.

For the first 25 minutes of the game, that was exactly the case. Georgetown led by 17. Like Vermont after it beat Syracuse a few years ago and like Princeton in ’96 when it upset UCLA, this Cinderella story seemed destined for just one shining moment.

But like I noted last week, Georgetown’s biggest weakness is its occasional inability to get buckets for extended periods of time. When Jonathan Wallace and Jessie Sapp are knocking down shots from the perimeter like they did in a blowout win over Villanova in the Big East Tourney, no team in America is better than the Hoyas.

But on Sunday with Roy Hibbert in foul trouble, Georgetown’s lack of offensive punch emerged at the worst possible moment. And at the same instant, Curry shook off his 2-for-12 start from the field and caught fire.

The Hoyas were in total control at the 14 ½-minute mark with a 48-33 lead, and that’s when Curry turned hotter than Harold Jensen of ‘Nova in the ’85 title game. He started by burying a 3-ball and converting the free throw after getting fouled on the shot.

From there, he outscored the Hoyas 25-22 by himself. Curry polished off the Big East powerhouse with five free throws in the waning moments and just like that, Georgetown was a goner.

At the same time Curry’s heroics were taking place in Raleigh, Bruce Pearl’s team was fighting for its season in Birmingham against a Butler team that was tournament tested and not about to go away.

The Vols needed overtime, but they finally put the Bulldogs to sleep and miraculously pulled out a cover in the 76-71 win as 4 ½-point favorites.

With the exception of the second half against South Carolina in its regular-season finale, UT hasn’t played particularly well – certainly not for 40 minutes – since handing Memphis its only loss. The Vols have looked lackadaisical all too often (what was Chris Lofton doing taking that lazy dribble with his back to the defense at crunch time?!).

With all that said, Tennessee is one of the 16 teams still ticking, the lone entrant from the SEC remaining. If the Vols are going to go further, they’ll have to get past Louisville, which dealt Oklahoma a severe pimpslap on Sunday.

The third-seeded Cardinals are 2 ½-point favorites against the Vols in Charlotte. UT is plus 120 on the money line.

West Virginia handed Duke its pink slip by riding the hot hand of Joe Alexander. The Mountaineers won a 73-67 decision, hooking up money-line backers with a plus 150 payout.

They will now face Xavier in Phoenix on Thursday as one-point favorites. The total is 136 at most books.

UCLA can thank freshman center Kevin Love for its presence in the Sweet 16. Love was a dominant defender all weekend, as the Bruins held Mississippi Valley St. to 27 points and Texas A&M to 49. The Bruins move on to face Western Kentucky, which won on a buzzer beater in the first round against Drake.

After Ty Rogers took out the MVC champs with his late-game heroics Friday, the Hilltoppers turned to their star Courtney Lee against San Diego. Lee produced 29 points and seven rebounds as Western Kentucky took out the Toreros 72-63 as a five-point ‘chalk.’

The Hilltoppers are in the region semifinals for the first time since 1993, while USD exits the tourney with its head held high. The Toreros shocked No. 4 seed UConn on Friday thanks to a game-winning shot from De’Jon Jackson in OT.

UCLA is favored by 13 and the total is in the 132-133 range. The Hilltoppers are plus 800 (risk $100 to win $800) to win outright.

Memphis failed to take the cash against a game Mississippi State team, but the Tigers marched on nonetheless. The Tigers shot less than 50 percent from the charity stripe (15-of-32), but all that matters is the ‘W.’

John Calipari’s team is a 4 ½-point favorite against Michigan St. in Friday’s late-night game in Houston. The Spartans, who impressively eliminated both Temple and Pitt, winners of the A-10 and Big East tourneys, are plus 180 on the money line.

Stanford and Texas will also square off in Houston with the Longhorns marked as 1 ½-point favorites. The Cardinal survived an OT thriller against Marquette, while Texas held off a furious last-minute rally by Miami but simultaneous failed its backers by allowing the ‘Canes to pull out the backdoor cover as six-point ‘dogs.

North Carolina jumped all over Arkansas and never looked back, crushing the Hogs from start to finish. The Tar Heels will face Washington St. as 7 ½-point favorites.

Twenty years after Manning led KU through the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight at the Pontiac Silverdome en route to the national championship, the Jayhawks return to Motown where they’ll take on Villanova as 11 ½-point favorites.

Although Jay Wright’s team is a No. 12 seed, it is in the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons.

The fun resumes Thursday, the same day I’ll arrive in Las Vegas. Can’t wait!

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Best Players so far:
1-Stephen Curry (Davidson)
2-Joe Alexander (West Virginia)
3-A.J. Abrams (Texas)
4-Courtney Lee (Western Kentucky)
5-Kevin Love (UCLA)

--Worst stat of the Tournament: Xavier shooting 33 free throws compared to just five for Georgia. The one-sided officiating in this game was a complete joke – utterly despicable.

--Biggest gambling heartbreakers of tourney so far:
1-Butler +4.5 in 76-71 loss to Tennessee.
2-Georgia +9 in 72-61 loss to Xavier.
3-Texas -6 in 75-72 win over Miami.
4-Texas A&M +600 money line in 51-49 loss to UCLA.
5-Marquette-Kentucky first half ‘under’ (lost on Marquette buzzer-beating 3).

--Mississippi State senior power forward Charles Rhodes played like an absolute stud in the last two games of his collegiate career.

--Davidson’s McKillop did a brilliant job of stealing a few minutes out of Lovedale here and there throughout the first half after the Wildcats’ premier defender was whistled for two early fouls. Kudos to McKillop in every aspect and ditto to senior point guard Jason Richards, who can stroke the 3-ball himself and does a great job of finding Curry in rhythm.

--Whether it happens or not remains unclear, but there's no doubt that South Carolina has decided Oklahoma's Jeff Capel is its top choice to replace the retired Dave Odom.  

--Best Games so far:
1-Davidson over Georgetown
2-Davidson over Gonzaga
3-Western Kentucky over Drake (OT)
4-Stanford over Marquette (OT)
5-Tennessee over Butler (OT)

--Five players that deserved to play longer:
1-Jonathan Cox (Drake)
2-Charles Rhodes (Mississippi State)
3-Joe Crawford (Kentucky)
4-Jerel McNeal (Marquette)
5-Sundiata Gaines (Georgia)

Brian Edwards can be reached at
briane@vegasinsider.com.

  
HEADLINES
Edwards: Off-Season Notes
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James next in Duke's players-turned-coaches
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James joins Coach K's staff at Duke
Postseason ban next for two-time offenders
W.Va. releases details of Huggins' contract
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