If you like betting just favorites, then the first round of the NCAA Tournament was for you. The “chalk” took advantage of favorable first round matchups, going 24-8 straight up and 21-11 against the spread.
The second round was more of the same as far as outright winners go since the favorites went 13-3 SU. Bettors, however, couldn’t catch a break last Saturday and Sunday as the faves posted a 9-7 record against the number.
So will the Sweet Sixteen produce the same results against the number as it did in Round 2?
Well, the “chalk” has gone 14-2 SU in the last two regional semifinals, but just 6-10 ATS during that time. The ‘under’ was a solid risk for the public as it went 11-5 in the past two Sweet 16s.
Can this trend continue? That’s anyone’s guess…especially in a West Region that has already seen four upsets happen and came close to a fifth.
Xavier vs. West Virginia
Isn’t it funny how old enemies just find their way back into your life in sports?
That’s what the Musketeer fans will have running through their minds when they see Bob Huggins roaming the West Virginia sidelines on Thursday. Perhaps they should be more concerned with Mountaineer squad that has bullied their first two tournament opponents.
The Mountaineers have learned Huggins’s physical style of defense a lot fast than anyone anticipated, allowing just 63.1 points per game for the season. Their most recent display of brute force came at the expense of a Duke squad that had scored around 83.2 PPG for the year, while hitting 37.7 percent of its three-pointers.
West Virginia forced the Blue Devils into shooting 38 percent from the field. The Mountaineers also grabbed almost every loose ball during the tilt, winning the rebound battle, 45-19. WVU also saw Joe Mazzulla drive the team with his 13 points and eight assists in its 73-67 win as a four-point underdog.
Huggins’s crew also got a big performance out of Joe Alexander. The junior forward put in 22 points with 11 boards and three assists. What Alexander brings to the table is a big man (he stands 6-foot-8) that has the ability of playing down low in the paint and on the perimeter from time to time.
Alexander will face off against Xavier’s big man, Josh Duncan. The Musketeers’ 6-foot-9 forward has been a question that most of their opponents had no answer for this season. Duncan averaged 12.1 PPG and 4.7 rebounds per game as well. He got into early foul trouble against the Boilermakers in the second round, but still found a way to put in 16 points and grab five defensive boards.
The sportsbooks have seen a lot of movement on the line for this tilt. Xavier opened as a one-point favorite, with a total of 136. While the total has remained sessile, the Mountaineers have become one-point favorites.
This line could be music to gambler’s ears as West Virginia is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS when tabbed as a favorite of two-points or lower since 2004. That is great news unless you read into “Huggy Bear’s” recent history against Xavier. Huggins went 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in his last eight games with Cincinnati when squaring off against the Musketeers.
CBS will be there to provide television coverage, starting at 7:10 pm EDT.
Western Kentucky vs. UCLA
Just when you thought David vs. Goliath was on display last weekend, we’ll get the ultimate showdown of the phrase in the Sweet 16.
Western Kentucky has done more than enough to shed the “Cinderella” label during its run to the regional semis. The No. 12 seed Hilltoppers thrilled everyone in possibly the best match we’ll see all tourney long in upending No. 5 Drake as four-point ‘dogs, 101-99, in overtime. WKU even pulled off some more heroics in taking down the Toreros as a five-point “chalk,” 72-63, to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1993.
The Bruins can’t find a happy medium for their victories recently. They either blow out the competition or just get lucky. The latter certainly was the order of the day for Ben Howland’s program against Texas A&M.
UCLA shot just 43 percent from the field and gave the ball up 14 times to the Aggies in its second round scuffle. Darren Collison was the Bruins’ savior, scoring a game-high 21 points, including the winning bucket with just over nine seconds in regulation. It also helps that the B’s stifled A&M’s offense to where it scored just five points in the final six minutes of the second half.
The Bruins got a boost from Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the trenches, snaring eight boards. However, his six turnovers must have made Howland pull his hair.
One thing the ‘Toppers must be able to do in this game in order to have a chance is be successful from the three-point line. Western Kentucky shoots 34.6 percent from beyond the arch this season, among the Top 20 in the nation.
If the Hilltoppers can give snipers like Ty Rogers, Tyrone Brazleton and Courtney Lee an opening against a defense that holds teams to 58 PPG this year, then they can definitely keep the match close.
The current line has UCLA as a 12 ½-point favorite, with the total holding steady at 133. And the Bruins excel when tabbed as double-digit favorites, establishing a 34-3 SU and 21-15-1 ATS mark since 2005.
Western Kentucky is 3-17 SU and 10-9-1 ATS when made a double-digit ‘dog since 1997. The ‘under’ has gone 13-7 during that stretch.
Tip-off for this regional semifinal is 9:40 pm EDT on CBS.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
