Do the ‘dogs have a shot?
That’s the question that gamblers will ask themselves Friday when handicapping the Midwest Regional from Ford Field in Detroit, MI.
After two rounds of play, the lower seeds have notched a 6-6 record both straight up and against the spread.
Two of the lower seeded teams, both Wildcats too, will have to bring their best against the top-seeded Jayhawks and third-seeded Badgers.
The first of two games tips off at 7:10 p.m. EDT, so let’s analyze the matchups further.
**No. 10 Davidson vs. No. 3 Wisconsin**
Davidson defeated No. 6 Gonzaga (82-76) and No. 2 Georgetown (74-70) en route to the regional semifinals. The school has won 24 straight games in a row, which is the longest active streak in the country. What’s more impressive about the victories is how the Wildcats didn’t fold after consecutive poor first halves. Despite trailing after the first 20 minutes in both games, Bob McKillop’s squad outscored the Bulldogs (11) and Hoyas (15) by a combined 26 points in the two wins.
If you haven’t heard Stephen Curry’s name by now, then you’ve probably haven’t watched any of the tournament action. The sharpshooter posted a tournament-high 40 points over the Zags in the first round before dropping a 30-spot on the Hoyas last Sunday. The son of the former NBA chucker Dell Curry scored 55 of his total points in the second half of both games.
While Curry is the heart and soul of the Wildcats, one could be a bit hesitant to back a one-dimensional club that has been torched defensively on the stat sheet. Both Gonzaga (51%) and Georgetown (63%) shot the ball well from the field against Davidson and they both owned the glass as well.
Wisconsin stopped No. 14 Cal State Fullerton (71-56) and Kansas State (72-55) last weekend, earning the school their first trip to the Sweet Sixteen since 2005.
The Badgers have won 12 straight games in a row, including the pair of tournament wins. More importantly, the school has gone 10-2 ATS during this run.
The Big Ten regular-season and tournament champions are all about shutting down opponents, leading the nation in scoring defense (53.9 points per game) and ranked third in field-goal percentage defense (38%).
Michael Flowers will be the key Badger to watch Friday, as most expect the senior guard to blanket Curry on every possession. Flowers is also averaging 9.4 PPG on the offensive side of the ball and is one of six Wisconsin players to rack up at least a dozen 3-pointers on the year. The Badgers’ six-foot-eleven Brian Butch (12.5 PPG) is going to be a tough match in the middle, considering the ‘Cats biggest defender is six-foot-nine.
This will be Wisconsin’s fourth trip to the Sweet Sixteen since the tournament expanded. The school has produced a 2-1 effort in the three previous battles and defense was clearly evident, as the Badgers allowed an average of 55.6 PPG.
Oddsmakers have listed the Badgers as 4 ½-point favorites, while the total is hovering between 126 and 127. Gamblers that fancy Davidson for the straight up win can purchase a money-line ticket at plus-175 (Bet $100 to win $175).
The Wildcats are just 1-4 SU as underdogs this year, but a perfect 5-0 ATS. The lone victory came last Sunday against the Hoyas.
The Badgers love to play in the fifties and their slow-it-down style has helped the ‘under’ go 22-10 on the year.
Gamblers who follow trends should be aware that the ‘under’ has gone 11-1 in the past 12 Sweet Sixteen games that have a total under 129 points.
**No. 12 Villanova vs. No. 1 Kansas**
It’s been said before that Villanova is a team that lives and dies by the jumper and lately Jay Wright’s squad has been staying alive. The Wildcats shot 50 percent in their 75-69 first round victory over Clemson and an eye opening 54 percent (30-of-56) while easily handling Siena, 84-72. Villanova covered both contests, and the ‘over’ cashed in both as well.
The Wildcats drilled 13-of-26 attempts from 3-point land in the first two games, with Scottie Reynolds leading the charge. The sophomore posted 21 and 25 points, including eight bombs from downtown. After Reynolds (15.6 PPG), the Wildcats’ offense doesn’t possess a true threat. Freshman Corey Stokes dropped in a season-high 20 points against Siena, but matching that effort will be asking a lot.
Even though ‘Nova is known for its solid backcourt and outside shooting, the Jayhawks are more talented and deeper in the guard department. The combination of Mario Chalmers (12.4 PPG) and Sherron Collins (9.5 PPG) both have the speed to turn the corner at will, plus the duo has drilled 39 percent (92-of-235) of its 3-point attempts. Toss in swing man Brandon Rush (12.9 PPG), and the backcourt advantage leans to KU in this matchup.
While offense takes center stage in Lawrence, it’s been Kansas’ defense that has made them look everything like the top seed in the Midwest Regional. The Jayhawks easily handled Portland State (85-61) and UNLV (75-56) in its first two tournament battles, holding both teams to under 40 percent shooting from the field. KU also managed to cover as a double-digit favorite in both of the games, while the ‘under’ has gone 2-0.
Bill Self’s team has ripped off nine straight wins, going 6-3 ATS during this run. Only three of the opponents have managed to score over 70 points during this run, but the ‘over’ has still notched a 6-3 mark.
Along with UCLA, the Jayhawks are laying the largest number (-12) in the eight Sweet Sixteen matchups. The betting trends from Sportsbook.com have the Wildcats receiving the majority of the action even though the line has moved from 11 to 12. Also, the total has jumped three points from 141 to 144.
Kansas is 4-0 in its last four regional semifinal battles, with three of the four victories coming by five points or less. Villanova owns a 1-1 mark in its two previous regional semifinals and both of the games were decided by exactly one point.
Gamblers believing that the No. 1 seed will fall, can back Villanova on the money-line at 7/1 (Bet $100 to win $700) odds. Before you run to the counter, make a note that the ‘Cats are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs this year.
The two schools split a home-and-home series from 2004 to 2005. Villanova covered both of the games and the ‘over’ went 2-0. Only Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun played for Kansas in the 2005 battle, while no Wildcats saw serious time.
Tip-off is expected for 9:40 p.m. EDT.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com