One unique phenomenon about first-round action is the chance to see some true David vs. Goliath matchups between reps from the "off" or "added" board conferences against some heavyweight opposition. While we haven't had a chance to get excited about a 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed for a long time (Purdue barely dodging the bullet against Western Carolina in 1996, 73-71, being the last truly close 1 vs. 16 call), we'd usually settle for some competitive showings by the longest shots in the first round. A year ago, 12 such "off" or "added" teams recorded a 5-6-1 spread mark in the opening-round games (excluding the play-in), though there have been years when these underdogs have collectively overachieved, and underachieved. As for what to look for in the first round, history indicates that Thursday’s point-spread performance is often a good indicator of what will happen on Friday; don't be afraid to jump on an emerging trend, either winning or losing, after the first day of sub-regional action, and Thursday often foretells Friday.
Lastly, every year, sub-regional action is spiced up with the presence of several "sleepers" who might be worth watching. Although we're not expecting any of the following to become "this year's George Mason" and make a run to the Final Four as Jim Larranaga's Patriots did in 2006, we'd still keep an eye on some of these under-the-radar reps who might be capable of pulling a first-round upset. And who knows...at this time four years ago, nobody was expecting George Mason to take a wild ride through the Dance, either.
Siena...The Saints are not a secret any longer after winning first-round games against Vanderbilt and Ohio State, respectively, the past two seasons, and survived a tougher-than-expected Metro-Atlantic race with only one blemish this season. Four starters from the lineups that wreaked Big Dance havoc in 2008 & 2009 return for one more shot as a seasoned, senior-laden team under HC Fran McCaffery, who ought to be on a short list for any schools looking to resurrect their programs (St. John's, perhaps? ). Bruising PF Alex Franklin (16.3 ppg) is a punishing force on the blocks, and along with skilled 6'0 jr. Ryan Rossiter (13.9 ppg) presents quite a frontline scoring combo, with each hitting better than 56% from the floor while maneuvering around the paint and baseline and rarely floating to the perimeter. Meanwhile, versatile 6-6 senior swingman Edwin Ubiles (15.2 ppg) remains a devilish matchup for smaller guards or slower forwards, sr. G Ronald Moore (7.8 ppg) is an experienced floor leader, and 6-3 wing Clarence Jackson (13.6 ppg) can loosen up any defense from 3-point land. We'll also bet that the CBS cameras will love McCaffery's wife Margie, who will be included in plenty of crowd shots from the Spokane Arena later this week.
Wofford...The Southern Conference has made its mark in the Dance lately, most notably Stephen Curry's Davidson team that advanced to the Elite 8 two years ago. We're not sure the Terriers (in their first-ever Big Dance) can advance that far, but this is a potentially-troublesome entry that beat both South Carolina and Georgia (at Athens) in pre-league play, played Pitt (albeit a bit shorthanded at the time) within three points in November, and was also competitive at both Illinois and Michigan State. Undersized, with no starters over 6'6, but extremely quick and well-disciplined. One of the "bigs" is PF Noah Dahlman, whose attack end work is limited to the paint but who nonetheless posted superb offensive numbers (16.8 ppg & 58% FGs), while Montana transfer G Cameron Rundles is one of many backcourt sparkplugs. The Terriers could prove a handful for first-round foe Wisconsin, which despite its protected seed status still didn't get assigned to its desired Milwaukee sub-regional and now must face Wofford in Jacksonville, not far from Terrier Country in South Carolina.
Montana...They're still talking about the one-man show that 6'3 sr. G Anthony Johnson displayed in the Big Sky Tourney finale at Weber State. All Johnson did was score the Grizzlies' last 21 points of the game en route to 42 on the night in a wild 66-65 win over the Wildcats, a game in which Montana once trailed by 22 points. Johnson, who enrolled in Missoula out of Yakima Valley JC because the Grizzlies were also going to offer a basketball scholarship to his hoops-playing wife, shot 51% from the floor (quite a feat for a G) while posting 19.6 ppg, and New Mexico HC Steve Alford will undoubtedly remind his Lobos how another recent Grizzlies team pulled a first-round shocker four years ago when beating favored Nevada at Salt Lake City.
New Mexico State...A lot of savvy hoops insiders believe the name of the game is offense these days, and wonder about the validity of the old "defense wins championships" saying. Exhibit A for the new wave of thinking could be the Aggies, who evolved into a dangerous outfit by New Year's and completed their remarkable transformation by upsetting favored Utah State in the WAC Tourney final at Reno. The Aggies have a couple of Gs in Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg) & Jonathan Gibson (17.5 ppg) who can go one-on-one and break down enemy defenses as well as shoot beyond the arc, while the midseason eligibility of 6'8 F Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg) added even more firepower to the strike force. Meanwhile, 6'11 Hamadu Rahman and 6'6 PF Wendell McKines provide a real presence on the blocks. WAC observers have noted that NMSU rarely goes on any scoring droughts with all of that available artillery, and it's hard for foes to string together momentum-changing blitzes since the Aggies began to click. Michigan State and Tom Izzo have been warned in the first round.
Oakland...The Golden Grizzlies present some size concerns for foes with 6'11, 261-lb C Keith Benson (27 ppg), who has NBA scouts interested, and 6'9 PF Will Hudson, while 6'2 St. John's transfer Larry Wright and quicksilver 5'11 sr. Johnathon Jones are a dynamite backcourt combo. Oakland enters the Dance very hot (20-1 SU its last 21) and wasn't afraid to play anybody this season while consistently on the Summit League trail, but it's worth noting the Golden Grizzlies weren't closer than 16 vs. the likes of Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan State, and Memphis in pre-league play, and lost by 12 at Oregon. Oakland will hope to fare a bit better in its first-round game vs. Pitt at Milwaukee.
Murray State...For a time late in the season, the Racers had the nation's longest winning streak (18 games), and many Ohio Valley observers believe this is the league's best chance to win a first-round NCAA game since 1988, when the same Murray beat Jim Valvano's NC State. Still a bit of an unknown after a mostly low-key non-conference slate, with a 5-point loss at Cal in the Preseason NIT the one result vs. formidable opposition. But the Racers are spectacularly balanced, with five players scoring between 10.3 and 10.6 ppg, and Creighton transfer G Isacc Miles just behind at 9.5 ppg. Lots of backcourt speed with Miles and frosh Isaiah Canaan will pressure Vanderbilt Gs Jermaine Beal & Scott Tinsley in first-round action Thursday at San Jose.
Sam Houston State...Posted a couple of interesting non-league results, including playing Kentucky within 10 at Cancun back in November when the Bearkats hit an astounding 18 of 38 casts beyond the arc, and later winning 107-89 at Auburn. Star G Corey Allmond made John Calipari notice when bombing UK for 37 in November, and SHSU later hit on 15 of 28 triples when whipping host Auburn by 18. With bomber deluxe Allmond leading the way, the Bearkats hit on 8.9 treys pg (ranks 8th nationally), but sometimes that over-reliance on the triples can boomerang as it did in a 40-point loss at Wright State. That kind of potential firepower still might give Sam Houston a puncher's chance in the first round vs. Baylor, although the Bearkats are undersized, with no starter taller than goggle-wearing 6'6 juco F Gilberto Clavell, who hit Auburn for 34 in that December win at Beard-Eaves Coliseum.
