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Session I, Thursday
March 16, 2010
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards, Kevin Rogers, Judd Hall, Chris David and James Manos previewed the 2010 NCAA Tournament in this Power Hours Special recorded on Tuesday. Listen Now | Download MP3
T he 2010 NCAA Tournament begins Thursday afternoon with a trio of games starting with BYU and Florida in Oklahoma City at 12:20 p.m. Eastern. Five minutes later, Old Dominion and Notre Dame will square off in New Orleans. Then at 12:30 p.m., Robert Morris will take on Villanova in Providence, RI. Let’s take an in-depth look at all three of these contests and more…
**Florida vs. Brigham Young**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened BYU (29-5 straight up, 18-13 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 145. As of Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cougars listed as 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 146. Bettors can take the Gators to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
--Florida (21-12 SU, 15-13 ATS) has won 12 consecutive NCAA Tournament games. Of course, those numbers stem from the 2006 and 2007 events when Billy Donovan’s program captured back-to-back national championships. Since then, UF had to settle for a pair of NIT bids and a possible third seemed possible on Selection Sunday. As it turned out, however, the Gators were somewhat comfortably ‘in’ as evidenced by their No. 10 seed.
--BYU is one of four teams in the field from the Mountain West Conference, the most the league has ever sent. The Cougars haven’t tasted a victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1993 when they beat SMU in Chicago as a No. 7 seed. They are seeded seventh for the first time since then this year, a welcome change when considering three straight losses as an eighth seed. BYU had lost to Texas A&M in the 8-9 game the last two campaigns.
--Dave Rose’s team was probably in line for a better seed, perhaps as high as a No. 5, until it lost to UNLV 70-66 in the MWC Tournament semifinals. In fairness to BYU, we should mention that the game was in Las Vegas at the Thomas & Mack Center, essentially making it a road assignment. In the losing effort, Jimmer Fredette scored a game-high 30 points.
--BYU freshman guard Tyler Haws, who averages 11.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, did not play against the Rebels after suffering a fractured orbital bone in Thursday’s win over TCU in the MWC Tourney quarterfinals. Haws was considered “questionable” for the UF game as of Tuesday morning.
--Fredette averages a team-high 21.7 points per game for BYU. Donovan raved about him on Monday, telling the Gainesville Sun, “We’ve seen two great point guards in our league in (South Carolina’s Devan) Downey and (Kentucky’s John) Wall, and I’m not so sure those two guys can have the impact in a game like this guy can. He goes to Arizona and gets, I think, 49. In the first round of the conference tournament, he gets 45. He is an unbelievable player and they obviously have a lot of good pieces around him who are very good players.”
--Florida lost its last three regular-season games and has dropped four of its last five. The Gators beat Auburn 78-69 as 5 ½-point favorites in the first round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville this past Thursday. Alex Tyus paced UF with 24 points against the Tigers. But Florida went down by a 75-69 count to Mississippi St. as a 1 ½-point underdog in the SEC quarterfinals.
--Florida owns a 6-5 spread record in 11 games as an underdog this season. Meanwhile, BYU has compiled an 8-4 ATS mark in 12 games as a single-digit favorite.
--BYU lost five of nine games against teams in the NCAA field, while Florida went 3-8 against the field with wins over Michigan St., FSU and Tennessee.
--Only one UF player – senior Dan Werner – has any NCAA Tournament experience.
--The ‘under’ is 13-11 overall for the Gators, although they have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six games.
--The ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run for the Cougars, who have watched the ‘over’ go 15-14 overall.
--The winner will face the Kansas State-North Texas winner on Saturday. The Wildcats are the No. 2 seed in the West region.
**Notre Dame vs. Old Dominion**
--LVSC opened Notre Dame (23-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 116. As of Tuesday afternoon, most books had adjusted the Irish to a two-point 'chalk' with a total of 122.
--Old Dominion (26-8 SU, 13-17 ATS) has won five in a row and eight of its last nine, including a 60-53 win over William & Mary in the finals of the Colonial Tournament. However, the Tribe took the money as a nine-point underdog. Darius James led a balanced attack for the Monarchs with 12 points, four assists and three rebounds.
--ODU is 1-6 both SU and ATS in seven games as an underdog. The Monarchs picked up their lone victory by winning 61-57 at Georgetown as nine-point underdogs back on Dec. 19.
--Mike Brey’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in 10 games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’ The Irish are 7-2 ATS in nine games against teams in the NCAA field.
--Notre Dame was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago, but this squad caught fire at just the right time to get a solid sixth seed in the South region. After a 91-89 overtime loss at Louisville on Feb. 17, the Irish ripped off six straight wins until dropping a 53-51 heartbreaker to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament semifinals. Most importantly, they have covered the spread in eight straight games.
--Notre Dame senior All-American Luke Harangody (23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG) sustained a knee injury on Feb. 11 against Seton Hall, causing him to miss five consecutive games. Harangody returned to the court and came off the bench to play sparingly in an OT win at Marquette in the regular-season finale. But he got more minutes at MSG in the league tourney. In fact, ‘Gody went off for 20 points and 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes of playing time in a 68-56 win over the Pirates to start the Irish’s run in NYC. He finished with 12 and 10 points against Pitt and WVU, respectively.
--The ‘under’ is 17-13 overall for ODU, but the ‘over’ is 7-1 in its last eight outings.
--The ‘under’ has been on fire for the Irish, cashing in seven straight games. For the season, the ‘under’ is 16-11 overall for Notre Dame.
**Robert Morris vs. Villanova**
--LVSC opened Villanova (24-7 SU, 18-12 ATS) as a 20-point favorite with a total of 142. As of Tuesday afternoon, most spots had ‘Nova as a 19-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 147 1/2.
--Jay Wright’s squad has limped down the stretch, especially for our purposes. The Wildcats have lost five of their last seven games, including an 80-76 loss to Marquette as five-point favorites in the Big East Tourney quarterfinals.
--‘Nova is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slide in its last eight outings. With that said, the Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites.
--Robert Morris (23-11 SU, 3-4 ATS) won the Northeast Conference’s automatic bid by besting Quinnipac 52-50 in the finals of the league tournament. The Colonials won outright as 4 ½-point underdogs. Karon Abraham paced the winners with a team-high 16 points.
--Robert Morris has split four games against teams in the NCAA field, but that factoid is extremely misleading. The Colonials beat Ohio (81-79) and Morgan St. (78-75) at home in a pair of non-lined affairs. However, they got blasted 100-60 at Syracuse as 18 ½-point ‘dogs and also lost 77-53 at Pitt in a non-lined game.
--‘Nova is led by senior guard Scottie Reynolds, who averages a team-high 18.5 PPG and garnered first-team All-Big East honors. Reynolds is just 49 points shy of overtaking Kerry Kittles as the school’s all-time leading scorer. His backcourt mate, junior Corey Fisher, has been filling it up from 3-point land recently. Fisher drained 6-of-7 treys in the Big East Tourney loss to Marquette and is 12-of-19 from beyond the arc in the last three games.
--Villanova sophomore forward Taylor King, a transfer from Duke, was benched for the team’s regular-season finale and only played two minutes against Marquette. Wright’s reasoning for the benching was termed a “teaching moment.” King is the team’s fifth-leading scorer (7.5 PPG) and he also pulls down 5.6 rebounds per contest.
--The ‘over’ is 18-12 overall for Villanova, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its last six outings.
--The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for the Colonials.
--The winner will advance to face the St. Mary’s-Richmond survivor on Saturday.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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