Thursday’s action in the NCAA Tournament is being called by some as one of the best days it has ever had. Gamblers that took the underdogs to cover saw them go 10-6 ATS on Day 1 of the tourney. And bettors that backed those pups on the money line watched six of them advance to Saturday’s second round of play. Ohio was the biggest payday for those folks with a 10/1 return in a thrashing of the Hoyas. And you can only imagine the heartbreak of some that were look at 25/1 with Robert Morris, who narrowly fell to the Wildcats as a 15th-seed.
Will we see that tradition continue as we punch the first tickets to the Sweet Sixteen? Let’s look at the first four games of the second round and find out.
St. Mary’s (10) vs. Villanova (2) – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have posted the Wildcats as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 153. Bettors can back St. Mary’s (27-5 straight up, 22-10 against the spread) for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
The Gaels picked up their first win in the Big Dance since 1959 by dropping seventh-seeded Richmond as two-point pups 80-71 last Thursday. Omar Samhan proved why teams need to focus on him in their game plans after unloading for 29 points and 12 rebounds against the A-10 runners-up Spiders. Seven of those boards for Samhan can off of the offensive glass; Richmond had just three offensive rebounds for the whole team.
That win improved St. Mary’s record to 3-2 SU and ATS when listed as a single-digit underdog this season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in that stretch to boot.
The Gaels have also moved up to 5-3 SU and ATS in games against teams that are in the NCAA field. And Thursday’s win pushed the ‘over’ to 4-3 in those spots.
Out of all the teams that advanced to the second round of play, Villanova (26-7 SU, 18-14 ATS) was the one that was gifted the entry. The Wildcats were outmatched by 15th seed Robert Morris for much of their game. Still, ‘Nova moved onto weekend play with a 73-70 overtime win over the Colonials as a 19-point favorite.
The Wildcats were staring a 44-36 deficit square in the face with 9:35 left in the second half. That’s when they starting seeing themselves toeing up to the charity stripe 15 times in regulation, making 13 of them to help force the extra session. The free throw line is where this game was won for Villanova as they were outshot in the field by the Colonials (40%-35%), but made 31-of-40 free throws to get the win. Scottie Reynolds made just two of his 15 field goal attempts after getting benched for much of the first half by Head Coach Jay Wright. Yet Reynolds was still able to rack up 20 points by hitting 15-of-16 free throw attempts.
Villanova has seemingly failed to show up over the last two months, going 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS since Feb. 6. The ‘over’ only holds a slight 5-4-1 edge, so you can’t even back that when you want to play totals.
The ‘Cats are just 6-5 SU and ATS in 11 games this season as single-digit favorites with the ‘over’ of 6-4-1 in that time frame. In the last four games in this situation, ‘Nova is 1-3 SU and ATS with the ‘under’ going 2-1-1.
Baylor or Old Dominion will await the survivor of this contest.
Murray State (13) vs. Butler (5) – 3:20 p.m. EDT
The majority of betting shops have installed Butler (29-4 SU, 14-19 ATS) as a 4 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 128. You can back the Racers at plus-170 (risk $100 to win $170).
Murray State (31-4 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) was a popular pick by gamblers and bracket makers alike to drop the Commodores in the first round. And sure enough, the Racers took down Vanderbilt as 2 ½-point pups in a buzzer-beating 66-65 win on Thursday. Danero Thomas drained the game-winner as time expired to cap off a 11 point, six rebound performance. Isacc Miles paced MSU with 17 points and six boards of his own.
There is a good reason whey the gambling public was on the Racers. This is a team that has won 22 of their last 23 contests, covering the spread in 12 of those triumphs. The ‘under’ is on a strong 6-1 run for totals players right now.
MSU has only been a single-digit pup twice this year, going 1-1 SU and ATS. And that win came just on Thursday against the Commodores.
Butler was figured to succumb to the favorite sleeper of many people, the Miners. And at halftime, UTEP was in control of the game with a 33-27 lead at halftime. Then the Bulldogs took control of the game with a 22-4 run to open the second half to earn a 77-59 win as 2 ½-point favorites. Shelvin Mack led the comeback with 25 points, including going 7-for-9 from three-point land.
The Bulldogs have enjoyed plenty of success as single-digit faves this season, evidenced by a 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS mark. They’ve also seen the ‘over’ go 10-3 in these matches.
Ohio (14) vs. Tennessee (6) – 3:35 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have installed the Volunteers as eight-point favorites with a total of 138.
Ohio (22-14 SU, 19-12 ATS) wasn’t given much of a chance to make any noise as a 14-point pup to the Hoyas in the first round. After all, this was a team that went into the MAC Tournament as the No. 9 seed. That didn’t stop the Bobcats from winning their conference’s automatic bid. And they parlayed that into an impressive 97-83 win over Georgetown in the first round. The ‘Cats were never in danger of losing this game, only seeing their lead cut to seven-points in the second half. Armon Bassett came away with 32 points, while D.J. Cooper posted 23 points and eight assists in the upset.
Even though the Bobcats’ season hasn’t been as great as a whole, the end of it has been extremely strong. Ohio has gone 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in its past 18 contests. The ‘under’ has gone 13-11 for the year. However, the ‘over’ has gone on a 6-1 run in OU’s last seven tilts.
Tennessee (26-8 SU, 13-16-2 ATS) was one of the rare favored clubs that didn’t falter on Thursday night with a 62-59 win over the Aztecs as a three-point “chalk.” J.P. Prince led the Vols to the win with 15 points and six boards. The “push” in this game was a welcome change for backers of the Volunteers since they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 fixtures.
The Vols are 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in their 10 games this season as single-digit favorites with the ‘under’ going 6-2-1.
Ohio is 3-7 SU and 6-4 when posted as a single-digit ‘dog with the ‘under’ going 6-4 this season.
Northern Iowa (9) vs. Kansas (1) – 5:40 p.m. EDT
LVSC has made Kansas (33-2 SU, 14-17-1 ATS) an 11 ½-point favorite with a total of 128. Bettors can invest in the Panthers for a plus-700 return (risk $100 to win $700).
Northern Iowa (29-4 SU, 21-10-1 ATS) got all they could handle and more out of the Running Rebels in a 69-66 win as a one-point favorite last Thursday. Ali Farokhmanesh scored the game-winning three-pointer with 4.9 seconds remaining to cap off his 17-point performance. It’s impressive to think that UNI turned the ball over 16 times.
The Panthers are riding high with a 13-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS record in their past 15 contests leading into the second round. The ‘under’ is 10-5, but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.
Kansas was expected to roll over the Mountain Hawks as a 25-point “chalk,” but got plenty of pushback with a 90-74 win. Marcus Morris put in 26 points and 10 rebounds for the winning effort. Still, this was a game that saw the Jayhawks work out some kinks. They had to fight back to tie the game at 12-all early in the first half and only led by six at halftime.
The Jayhawks failed to cover the number, which was the first time in two games they didn’t get an ATS win. For a team that has been lousy at nailing the spread, they have been good as of late with a 4-2 ATS mark in its last six tests.
KU fans should take heart in knowing that their team is 22-0 SU when made a double-digit favorite. Gamblers backing them, on the other hand, also know that they are just 8-13-1 ATS in those matches. That includes a recent an 0-7 ATS run in this situation. The ‘under’ has gone 12-8 when a total was posted.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
