Duke vs. FSU Predictions, Odds

• January 2, 2020
• By David Schwab
• VegasInsider.com

Saturday night’s featured matchup in the ACC on ESPN2 pits the No. 20 Duke Blue Devils on the road against the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles. Tip-off from Donald L. Tucker Center is slated for 7 p.m. (ET).

BETTING RESOURCES

• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Conference: ACC
• Venue: Donald L. Tucker Center
• Location: Tallahassee, Florida
• Date: Saturday, Jan. 2, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m.
• TV: ESPN2
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet |William Hill | Best Sportsbooks

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Duke-FSU Betting Odds

Line Movements

• Spread: FSU -1.5
• Money-Line: FSU -130 Duke +105
• Total: 146.5

Odds Subject to Change

The betting line for the game sees FSU as a -1.5-point home favorite. The Blue Devils have only played five games so far with a straight-up record of 3-2 while going just 1-4 against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of the five contests.

Duke comes into this matchup with a SU 9-1 mark in its last 10 games against Florida State while going 4-6 ATS. It has failed to cover in four of the last five meetings. The total stayed UNDER in seven of those 10 games with one PUSH.

The Blue Devils are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Florida State slipped to 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS with a 10-point loss to Clemson on Dec. 29 as a slight +1.5-point underdog on the road. The total has now gone OVER in three of its last five games.

The Seminoles have won 19 of their last 20 home games SU but they are 1-4 SU in their last five home games against Duke.

Betting Analysis – Duke Blue Devils

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 3-2
• ATS: 1-4
• SU - Home: 2-2
• SU - Away: 1-0
• O/U: 1-3-1

It is hard to know what to expect from Duke on Saturday night. It has already lost a pair of games closing as a home favorite and its last game played was a 10-point road win against Notre Dame on Dec. 16.

To get another win on the road this Saturday, the Blue Devils will turn to forward Matthew Hurt along with guard DJ Steward. Freshman sensation Jalen Johnson remains out of the lineup with a foot injury.

Hurt leads the team in scoring with 18.8 points per game while shooting 52.2% from the field. Steward is next on the list with 12.6 points and a 41.7 shooting percentage from three-point range.

Duke is averaging 73.8 points and 38.8 rebounds a game. It is giving up an average of 69.6 PPG.

Betting Analysis – FSU Seminoles

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 5-2
• ATS: 3-4
• SU - Home: 5-1
• SU - Away: 0-1
• O/U: 3-3-1

The Seminoles took a five-point lead into halftime against Clemson in Tuesday’s 10-point road loss. They also blew a five-point halftime lead in an unexpected eight-point loss to Central Florida on Dec. 19 as heavy -14.5-point home favorites.

This is the type of inconsistency that could haunt FSU against Duke in a game it is more than capable of winning. Guard MJ Walker leads four players scoring in double figures with 15.3 PPG. Guard Anthony Polite (10.9 points) is the team’s top shooter with a field goal percentage of 50.0.

This actually improves to 51.9% from three-point range. Florida State matches up well with the Blue Devils on the stat sheet with 75.0 PPG and 37.3 rebounds. It has allowed an average of 68.4 points a game.

Inside the Stats – Duke Blue Devils

• PS/G: 73.8 (151st)
• PA/G: 69.6 (161st)
• Off Rtg: 102.5 (165th)
• Def Rtg: 96.7 (159th)

Inside the Stats – FSU Seminoles

• PS/G: 75 (136th)
• PA/G: 68.4 (152nd)
• Off Rtg: 105.2 (128th)
• Def Rtg: 96 (153rd)

Key Players to Watch

• DUKE - Matthew Hurt (18.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG)
• DUKE - DJ Steward (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
• FSU - MJ Walker (15.3 PPG)
• FSU - Scottie Barnes (11.1 PPG, 4.3 APG)

Duke-FSU Predictions

Given Duke’s early track record and the absence of one of its best players, I am inclined to take the points and the home team in this matchup. There are some lingering concerns with Florida State’s two losses in three games but the long layoff could work against the Blue Devils on Saturday night.

I'm not sure that the Seminoles can pull off the SU upset. Yet, they should keep the game closer than the posted spread. I'm also leaning towards the UNDER on the total line in light of the past scoring trends in this series. Recent betting trends also point to a lower score than expected.

• Score Prediction: Duke 69 FSU 65
• Best Bets: UNDER
• Best Bets: Duke

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