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Games to Watch - Week 1
August 31, 2010
By Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com
Our collective nightmare is finally over as the college football season gets underway this week. There are 78 games in the first weekend of action, with 39 of those actually being on the board. Allow me to remind each and every person out there that VegasInsider.com will be here every week to look at the key matchups.
Let’s look at the big tilts of Week 1!
| Thursday - Pittsburgh at Utah (Versus, 8:30 p.m.) |
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A lot of people are expecting the Panthers to get over the hump in Dave Wannstedt's sixth year at the helm. That tends to happen when you have the best rusher returning to college in Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,799 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2009. For Lewis to do the same this year, he'll have to run behind an o-line that brings back one starter. Pittsburgh is also sending Tino Sunseri out for his first start at quarterback in this game. The Utes are also positioned to storm the nation this season. They return Jordan Wynn under center. All he did was throw for 338 yards and three scores over Cal en route to Poinsettia Bowl MVP honors. |
The last time these two teams met Urban Meyer was helping Utah run the Panthers into a the ground for a 35-7 win in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl as a 14-point favorite. The Utes have moved even further along under Kyle Whittingham with an 11-1 SU mark as favorites against non-conference opponents. However, they're just 4-8 ATS in that stretch. Pittsburgh hasn't had much luck as a non-conference pup with Wannstedt groom his mustache on the sidelines at 1-4 SU, but have gone 3-2 ATS. Utah opened as a one-point home "chalk" at the beginning of the month, but bettors have pushed that to 2 ½. The total has hovered around the initial mark of 51, but has been pushed down to 49 ½. Pittsburgh can be taken for the outright win at a plus-130 return at most betting shops. | |
| Saturday - Connecticut at Michigan (ABC, 3:30 p.m.) |
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All Randy Edsall has done in Storrs is turn the Huskies into a consistent winner. Last year could have been their best at the FBS level had it not been for five losses that were decided by a combined 15 points. Connecticut appears to have the pieces in place this season to make a run at the BCS. Zach Frazer is a proven quarterback that looks to improve on a so-so '09 campaign (1,461 passing yards, 10 TD, 9 INT). And Jordan Todman is poised to stand in the spotlight after picking up 1,188 yards on the ground last year with 14 scores. It's officially "do-or-die" for Rich Rodriguez with the Wolverines. Last year looked good at the start as Michigan opened up with a 5-2 SU record, but promptly dropped the last five games to finish out of a the bowls for a second straight year. A lot of these issues is because of a defense that was 82nd nationally with 393.3 YPG allowed. It doesn't help they gave the ball away 28 times last year. The stoppers should be set a little better going to a 3-3-5 formation, while Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will have a better grasp of the zone-read attack. |
Connecticut hasn't had much time as a road pup against Big Ten schools, but they did win 14-7 against the Hoosiers back in 2006. When you look at the Huskies as road underdogs over the last five seasons against non-conference foes, you'll notice they are 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, covering the spread in the last three games. The Wolverines haven't done so well in their recent home openers with losses to Appalachian State and Utah quickly coming to mind. Yet Michigan has posted a 10-4 SU record in non-conference games as a home "chalk." Their backers, however, have seen them go 4-10 ATS. Michigan has been listed as a three-point home fave, which is a typical line for a game that is too close to call. The defensive issues for the Wolverines does indicate that the total should be high. Many sportsbooks agreed by setting the number at 54. And the gambling public has not moved that number all that much. | |
| Saturday - Washington at BYU (CBS College Sports, 7:00 p.m.) |
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This same time last year, we saw the Cougars dole out some punishment on Oklahoma at Cowboys Stadium. Now BYU will try to avoid that on its home turf by an up-and-coming team. It won't be an easy run of it for the Cougars after losing Max Hall under center, Dennis Pitta at tight end and Harvey Unga in the backfield. That will no doubt hurt a team that ranked 21st by pouring in 427.2 YPG on offense. But there is reason for optimism with Riley Nelson and Jake Heaps showing the goods to replace Hall. In the Pacific Northwest, college football has awakened with a vengeance after Steve Sarkisian's club posted a 5-7 record in his first year. Jake Locker is a big reason why confidence is high for the Huskies. He spurned the NFL Draft (could've been the No. 1 pick overall) to guide Washington to great things. Hard to think that isn't possible after he gained 233.3 YPG through the air in a new offensive gameplan. |
The oddsmakers are expecting a 30-27 finish in this contest going off of their lines (BYU -3, 57), which isn't that hard to believe. Brigham Young went 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS. If you were to parlay the Cougars cover with the 'over,' you would have gone 6-1. The Huskies are no strangers to being underdogs in non-conference affairs with 11 games falling under that situation over the last five seasons. And to nobody's surprise, Washington is 2-9 SU in that stretch, but 6-4-1 ATS. It happened twice last year under Sarkisian, and they covered both times. BYU leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to backing them as a "chalk" with a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. That includes a 1-3 ATS trend in this spot. | |
| Monday - Boise State vs. Virginia Tech from Landover, Maryland (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.) |
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Arguably the biggest game on the board for the first week of the season takes place at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland between the Broncos and Hokies. Many figure this is Boise State's biggest hurdle in a year that starts with them at No. 3 in the AP Poll. It's hard to argue that point as Kellen Moore guides an offense that returns 11 starters from a unit that averaged 42.2 points per game to lead the nation. It doesn't hurt that he was second only to Tim Tebow in passing efficiency last season (161.7) and was sacked the fewest of any starting QB (5) in the country. The Broncos' defense wasn't a slouch in 2009 either, ranking 14th in total defense (300.2 YPG) and 3rd in takeaways (35). A win in this game gives Boise State a schedule with the toughest game coming on Sept. 25 at home against the Beavers. Virginia Tech comes into this game heavy on offense with Tyrod Taylor leading the way. Taylor did a great job of cutting back on his mistakes (7 picks in '08, 5 picks in '09). He'll have help in the backfield with Darren Evans coming back to help run the ball along with Ryan Williams. The Hokies are coming back thin on defense with just five starters returning. Yet that never has been a problem in Frank Beamer's plug-n-play defensive unit. |
This may be the first head-to-head meeting between these teams, but Boise State is no stranger to facing national powers. This is a team that has gone 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS when facing non-conference programs since Chris Petersen took over for Dan Hawkins in 2006. While they've had the best attack in the nation, the 'under' has gone 12-5 during those matches. The Hokies haven't played against a WAC school before, which shouldn't be that big of a shock. What they have done against non-conference teams is impressive, going 16-5 SU and 9-12 ATS since 2005. Over its last six games in this spot, Virginia Tech is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Boise State is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 50 ½. | |
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
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